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Monday, January 28, 2013

28 Jan Rally consolidates

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Equities should be consolidating this week ahead of FOMC, possibly hitting 1510. Expected to reach 1550 eventually. While metals futures and options expire on 30 Jan, expect to see slamming of Gold into 1600 and Silver into 29 again.

The surest trade is in currencies, JPY to hit 100, and GBP to drop into 1.5500.
correction: GBP has breached a double top, heading for 1.5200, momentum trade, put on trailing stops.

Meanwhile news of forex manipulations in the island state of Singapore:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100410762

In the rich island states, there are lots of Russians, Middleastern, Chinese, Indians and Australians (other than the indigenous populations), investing and trading. They buy those Dual Currencies Deposit, i.e. when the base currencies fall below a certain range, it get converted, while earning a meagre interest rate on the base currency. If it never get converted, they earn that interest rate.
Hence the client relationship manager and trader would conspire to move currencies in their favours on the day of the expiry to make capital gains.

Possibly now the Hedge Funds are conspiring for a shorts killing rally in JPY and GBP.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

23 Jan SPX 1500 Shanghai Composite 2400

Went to the bank, and heard ladies selling their fund, Schroeder Middleeast, Schroeder Resources. Went to a cafe, saw couples looking at stock screen.
Meanwhile China made a new recent high, inching towards 2400, while SPX towards 1500. At least now everybody is in sync. All markets rallying concurrently. Even Gold is making an attempt at 1700.

Chinese new year is coming in 2 weeks time, and lots of Chinese businesses are close to shutting down, when their workers make their annual pilgrimage back to home village. The Dargon year would be ending with the snake year coming after 10 February.

Even INDU is now above its recent high, though still in the 13xxx range. While APPL is way below 700, hence those who time the index to trade single stock, would have a wrong timing.


Sunday, January 20, 2013

20 Jan Write Off season ?

On the march towards 1500, it is never even. The market needs even bigger news to throw a surprise and hence a down move, and then a rally ensuing.
What is the big news ? Caterpillar writing off its 50% of its Q4 earnings due to accounting gimmicks at a China subsidiary.
In China, big 4 auditors, etc, are running their own show independent of their US parents company. Often in cahoots with the China customers, the partners get tremendous rewards, much more than they ever work till retirements. Hence if you are a foreign fund in China, you better hit and run.
Rio Tinto has to write off its investment in a African mines, and its CEO was sacked.
We are going to see write off galore, where people inflated prices and drew down company resources, and could not hold it any longer.
How about Bernanke writes off the 6 Trillion Debt on its Balance Sheet ?


As you know naughty boy Geithner leaked to BoA Ken Lewis years back. Time to go.
Next week, the Federal Manipulated Market Committee (FMMC) would hold a market review meeting, opening up the system, to see the stops, the monies, and decide on the next move.

And the verdict for AMERICA meanwhile is: US is going to be the largest Energy Exporting Country, the largest Calories Exporting country, and the Countries where Companies have the most Cash.

Hail, the GREAT AMERICA.

We should be expecting a GREAT RALLY coming:


On the 2nd mission of Algiers rescue, few more hostages died. Total 23 hostages, including American, British, Japanese, French, Romanian. Hostage crisis resolved. No need for US, French deployment.
That is the rule of today, solution no matter what.
Now citizens at large realise that their greatest fear is their government.




Friday, January 18, 2013

18 Jan towards 1500

yes, nothing surprising, scalpers in action while SPX march towards 1500. Next week, Timmy, Benny, Jamie and Blanky would convene a meeting to decide where to go from here. One key input is the volume of shorts at 1500, and what to do with it.

Algiers commandos basically shoot at will, killing both the hostages and the AlQaeda rebels. Much to the delight of French, Australia, British, Japanese and Americans. Instant resolution of the hostage crisis. If you are working in a LNG plant in Africa, you are as good as dead.

Bernanke is going to take 7 yrs to repatriate German gold, hence expect Gold to hug 1700 for 7 more years. Would He ?

FOMC on 30 Jan, hence probably SPX would be hugging 1500 by then.

China is already developing its 5th generation fighter jet. Noting that America's F-35 is just 4th generation. With Boeing's 787 problem, some begins to doubt US aerospace power.


Tuesday, January 15, 2013

15 Jan No more debt ceiling

Bernanke has done it. Debt Ceiling is useless. Obama would use ITS executive power to remote the Debt Ceiling.

On this eventful day, it is reported that Bundesbank would repatriate part of its Gold in the FED and all of its Gold with the Bank of France.

So that explains the slump in GOLD and the rise in  Euro. France and US was busy unwinding their swaps with the Bullions Banks. And the Bullion Banks had to go out to the market to buy Gold, hence they slam the prices down to 1625.

In 2001, when BoE sold off half of its Gold, it was done in secrecy.

All these point to the fact, that Obama has already discussed HIS intention to remove the Debt Ceiling with the Euro countries, Japan included. Hence this has given Abe extra courage to go for the unorthodox method of QE. As soon as 15 Feb, we would see earth shaking moves in the market.


Monday, January 14, 2013

14 Jan Aegean War - The Clash of Titans

One reason why Greece was spared from leaving the Euro was because its future oil resources underneath the Aegean seas. These resources have been pledged to the Banking cartels. And Greece is now starting its oil exploration, amidst protest from Turkey. Noting that Turkey wants to join Eurozone. Another Geopolitics crisis on the door step of Europe. The Greece hates the Turks and vice-versa for centuries. And both are in NATO (No Action Talk Only).

More importantly, EURO is now becoming a OIL CURRENCY. Like Norwegian Krone. Eurozone may be able to tap a large storage of Natural Gas and Crude, even larger than that of Saudi Arabia.

Al Qaeda has made inroads into Central Africa. And the NATO is now stretching beyond the coast of Syria further inland. Aegean seas, Africa continent would be fermenting in 2013.

So we now have flashpoints in Europe, Africa, North Asia, South east Asia. Not to mention great unrest in US with gun control. We would see some States seeking succession from the Union, to circumvent Obama care and Gun control. National Guards would be deployed to seize state legislature.

Japan F15 and China Su-10 have crossed path off the sky off Senkaku Island.

We are beginning to see glimpse of how 2013 would shape up. I did 13 laps of the swimming pool yesterday. Feeling really good.

With Hagel coming onboard, where is Obama flexibility with Netanyahu ? Israel would be on its own, and the Persian forces would reign supreme. It is more like Netanyahu has to be flexible.


Death Star update
------------------
China would build its death star probably with Eight Edges, rotating on a stem. It would house plants, to harvest the water. China death star would carry ballistic missles, and laser projectiles. Most American satellites would be impaired, and the world has to adopt China's GPS. China would also be harvesting the Moon for minerals, and possibly hitch-hike a passing asteroids onto another planet to build a colony. By then, they would be a settlement on Mars, harvest water in the ice cap.


Sunday, January 13, 2013

13 Jan 20 Trillion YEN stimulus

now you want to bet against the FED or the BoJ ?
20 Trillion YEN is reaching out to the world sometime next week. Yen should resume climb towards 100 soon.
20 Trillion YEN  divided by 100 is 200 billion USD of stimulus.

45bx12 = 540 billion USD of FED mortgage purchase. plus China stimulus. 2013, we are seeing stimulus totalling 1 Trillion. Would this Trillion be the Trillion that topples the 600 Trillion derivatives market ?

Meanwhile Tom Demark has came out with the prediction of a top at 1492, his favourite "13" count on his Demark Combo indicator.

Whether 1492 would be the top, depends on how many shorts are there. On approach to 1490, the Funds, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs would open up all the systems, and see where are the stops. If too many pple follow Demark, and there is a clusters of stops above 1500, this would be a good short-covering rally.
Demark is good for market bottoms not tops. He predicted correctly the market bottom during the Euro crisis but failed repeatedly at the top.

While Obama has stood down petition to build death star, China would have its Mir class space station by 2020 when it plans taikonauts to land on the moon. And then China would build its own Deathstar, death to American.

Obama has pushed troops into 35 African nation. Africa is the place to watch in 2013, when China and US goes bayonet fighting.

Friday, January 11, 2013

11 Jan Gun control and Trillion Dollar Coin Ban

Update of Update
============
Euro new recent high 1.3366 => USD weaker
JPY at 89.39 => USD stronger => manipulation by BoJ selling YEN
DXY 79.43 => USD weaker overall

Gold at 1655 dropping => USD stronger => manipulation by XXX selling paper GOLD.

who is the XXX ?
XXX using the currency volatility to masks its manipulations. Pointing to fact that there is not enough physical GOLD to back up the ETF and FED Fort Knox and BoE gold vault.

Update
--------
Trillion Dollar Coin Ban by a Congressman. This saga is getting absurd as Paul Krugman is asking for the Treasury to mint the Coin.

http://www.businessinsider.com/mintthecoin-congressman-introduces-law-to-ban-the-trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-2013-1#ixzz2HJPfB6QV

In case you did not notice, if Jacob Lew, the incoming Treasuary Secretary is to sign on a Dollar Bill,
it becomes a 10 million dollar bill with 8 Zeros added

10 dollar bills become 100 million dollar
100 dollar bills become 1 Billion Dollar

If you have 1000 pieces of the 100 dollar notes, it becomes a TRILLION DOLLAR !!!!

The maker has a sly sense of humor and HE is telling you what is coming.

Just attended a dinner party with some retails CEO.
A lot of Europeans and American brand names are pulling out of China hypermarkets:
Bestbuy, Home Depot,
Europe Tesco, Media Saturn,
and Carrefour is downsizing.
China is turning itself inwards, with its home grown industries supplying to itself.
It is a matter of time when HP, Dell and other electronics maker, Sony, Panasonic, Canon are completely out competed.
And when Apple annouces China is going to be its biggest market, means it is going to lose a lot a lot of monies in China (to the benefit of its China JV partners, if not the suppliers).







news have it that a housewife fended off intruders in her house with handgun.

ask a Gun control activist, if he/she has a gun at home. This Gun Control thing has become a tussle where a segment of the population wants to disarm the other.
when an intruder walks up to your house, and you have no Gun, you just think of Obama. YOU ASK FOR IT.

meanwhile, SPX marching towards 1500 as forecasted. Gold making a dead cat bounce. 1700 should be the ceiling.

Meanwhile, political tussle among the top men in the Chinese Communist party, between the incumbent Chairman Xi JinPing and the ex-Chairman Jiang ZheMin, who is also the boss of the ring of corrupt Shanghai based officials.

Abe is going to do another round of simulus. GUARANTEE you JPY would go to 100, and eventually to 140. EuroUSD would hit 1.4400 riding on the cheaper Yen.

That is the plan at least till the end of January, during this earning season announcement.

Update: Europe Open
----------------------
Infosys, a Indian IT bodyshopper revise sales forecast and it jumps 16% intraday (reminds of Fishy Indian Fish curry). And Apple announces cheaper version of IPAD Mini using earlier IPAD components. And Tim Cook announces China would be its largest market.

So that means.....
excess of Ipad, Iphone earlier components left because of wrong forecast and lower demand. Apple is competiing with China homegrown phone makers. How bad would Iphone/Ipad goes ?
Apple supply chain is seriously flawed. Its core supplier Foxconn has a major corruption scandal involving its entire sourcing department. Apple is made up of blood monies.

With Cyprus downgrade, Spain billions bailout fund around the corner. Enough to entice some foolhardy short sellers to propel Euro upwards.Now the ramblings begin on Bloomberg TV about Euros, etc. Hardly listening. Much ado about nothing.

Looks like the Israel is now uncertain of what to do with their country:
Let Muslim rules them or flee.

Crude is erriely quiet.











Wednesday, January 9, 2013

9 Jan Trillion Dollar Coin

We are seeing Deep sea weird sea creatures sighted or caught.

http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/blog/50584/giant+headless+fish+at+center+of+intriguing+mystery+off+kona+hawaii/

Suspect: mutation of a deep sea fish due to Fukushima radioactive water.

Also giant squid filmed in Pacific depth:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/08/us-japan-giantsquid-idUSBRE90705O20130108

Kraken awaits. Would we be seeing the vampire squid coming alive in this earning season. Looks like it. The market opens with a sharp drop, and then Dimon comes in to buy up. Rinse again. Alcoa reports positive earnings. It would be another rally up to INDU=14000+, and SPX=1500+.
Put on your trailing stops and ride the wave.

Meanwhile Trillion Dollar coin is being aired on Capital Accounts and on the blogs of every Fiscal bear. May be Bernanke can take the Trillion Dollar coin with him when he leaves office, and all debt would disappear with a "Puff".


Monday, January 7, 2013

7 Jan DeadFall - this is my 666 post so far since May 31 2009

It seems that Dan Craig Skyfall was not deadly, infact the fiscal cliff looks like a glide down a slope.
How about DEADFALL, the next movie, premiering in some countries this week ?

SPX has reached new heights, but Precious Metal has a cliff fall.

Every SPX fall is followed by a steep climb. While every GOLD fall is followed by somemore fall in Asia hours.

SPX is expected to challenge 1500, INDU to pass 14000 before another big correction.
While GOLD is going to retest 1526.

Gold would drop past 1600 till Wednesday, and then during ECB Thursday, to reach 1500.

That is the game plan.

Bond yield is climbing slowly, and some has already suffered more than 5% loss on their capital. Expect the Bond selling to accelerate.Institutions would pour some monies into Equities and Commodities.

Meanwhile in China, every officials is trying to sell their assets for cash and hide in a water pond, behind the brick walls. While businessman gives out 1 billion yuan 160 million USD to his son-in-law as dowdry, including a Ferrari, a Lambo, loads of gold jewellery, properties, cash, etc.
The father is a kitchen and bathroom ceramics manufacturer in China, obviously capitalising on the property boom in China and overseas.
The father should send some dowry to Bernanke, to thank him for his ZIRP, the magnificent tool to transfer wealth into the hands of the Chinese.
All Chinese tycoons should all come together and send a gift to the FOMC, to celebrate the achievement of liquidity and the retirement of Bernanke in 2014. Let us call it The Chinese Bernanke Fanclub.

http://www.plushasia.com/media_photo/19562



Friday, January 4, 2013

4 Jan Bond Market Collapse

Looking at yesterday sell off of Bonds, Precious Metals and some Equities. One may just harbour the thought that Bond Collapse is just around the corner.
Strange FOMC minutes where the governors discussed the ineffectiveness of their measures and telling an end of QE in 2013.
And with Debt Ceiling around, FED cannot print without prior sanction.Only March the earliest, we see fresh funds coming in (assuming Debt Ceiling raised again).

We are in a crucial 2 months, and I am not watching the TV.
Gold selling off as I am writing, now at 1644. Some say 1633. we shall see. Others say 1400.

However we have to admit that Banks, like BAC and XLF had a good run. BAC almost doubled.

Another slamdown happens during London opening. Very powerful actions, especially for metals, in the absence of any devastating news, while Asia Equities had a good day. Central Bankers decided to use FORCE to expel people from commodities into paper Equities. And this is just the 3rd trading day of the year.
The suspect is that they seem to be in a HURRY. Something imminent is going to happen. they are beating the commodities and currencies to save the Bonds.

Think there is a big stop under 1600, and they want to take it out.

Netherland and Germany has written to BoE to request for their Gold repatriated. BoE refused and arranged the Queen to inspect the Gold vault to reassure the world that the Gold is there. Actually the Gold has been swapped out to the Bullion Banks. And FED is refusing even inspection of BoE gold in Fort Knox. Hence George Osborne has to resort to buying back its Gold from the market. They realised that as they begin buying the frenzy follows, and they stopped at 1750.
And they switched tactics, employing HSBC and others to sell down the Gold with paper Gold, so as to collect Physical Gold from LBMA. Hence BoE began its stepwise sell down. and it worked. Those investors in Paulson fund sold off. However, they are not getting as many physical gold, and the lower it goes, another wave of buyers came in. In December, when the China Finance Czar Wang QiShan was in US, Geithner request for China to transfer some Gold to US was rejected. Hence the continued sell down into the Xmas.
However now BoE is seeing more buying from Asia piling in at each lower prices.
When BoE completes, that would be the bottom of GOLD.
Keeping in mind that Argentina is now restating its sovereign claim on the Falkland Islands.

Gold reached 1627 when the Londoners went for their lunch on a Friday.

We would write down in history: At the Winter Equinox of 2012, Central Bankers manipulated Gold prices to redeem Gold that they sold, TO NO AVAIL. Hell gate is opened. The beginning of the end of Central Banking has just begun, lasting through 2019.
















Thursday, January 3, 2013

3 Jan Day of THOR

In case you forget, Thursday is the Day of THOR, Thunder God of the Universe. You shall see a lightning bolt and you know THOR has returned to Askar.

Now everybody is "12 Dec 2012 end of world" fatigue, and now this fiscal cliff Kabuki Show. I am not sure if anybody would follow the next Act "Debt Ceiling". I have switched off the TV and stop reading financial news.

What if you can make all you make in the year in the 1st month of 2013, why not ? And you make all those in January in the first week ? Why not. Then go on an extended yearly retreat, amidst the winter. Do some skiing, fishing while the snow melts, and have a retreat after almost half a century of work.

After 2 weeks of the India horrific gang-rape, the charge sheet is filed today. Ridiculous incompetence of the Indian judiciary. Court case fixed on 5 Jan. Shame on those US Corporations that operate in India. Shame on those Indians who mind only making monies in America without pushing for change and improvement in their homeland.




Tuesday, January 1, 2013

1 Jan 2013 Forecast for 2013

Update
----------
What a way to kick off 2013, with an Indian threatening to blow up Adelson's Sands casino in an Asian island city, a.k.a "Marina Bay Sands bomb threat by an Indian".

http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/01/01/boy-arrested-over-alleged-threat-to-blow-up-mbs/

India want to grab world headlines with the gangrape of a young 16 yr old gal. Her vagina was repeatedly poked by an Iron rod by 6 Indians. Her life was in critical danger. And then the Indian government wanted to diffuse anger, quickly despatch her to another Asian island city for medical treatment, airflown, when her situation does not warrant such.
Thinking that Walmart and Warren Buffet had made the monies in India, closing their eyes on the rampant incompetence and corruption in the Indian government. What a shame.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


One cannot resist making a post on the first day of the new Year.
Now, the fiscal cliff is coined by Bernanke, and anything from Bernanke is a farce. There is no cliff. As even if the payroll tax cut expires, it takes time to implement. The same for any spending cuts if they ever get endorsed. And now with the extension for 2 months, and then further extensions, it is going on and on. It is more like a stroll down the cliff. And the funds are going to use this to make every dip and rise to make their monies in 2013. Just look at the ramp post "deal" announcement. It was expected, so does the ramp. The funds are just trying to make monies from the 3xbulls, 3xbears, making monies from every twist and turn.

So readers are advised to get out from those derivatives ETF whether bull or bear. As the price would be depleted with time.

Now, what Bernanke neber said is "Monetary Cliff", how much more debt can FED takes on before it collapses ? And I retain the copyright to this term "Monetary Cliff"

What is so big deal about China is that they are having a rally going on, from 1949 to around 2269. One can attribute it to increased production, due to internal consumption after the government approved billions of stimulus in November.

But the other side is that the China new leadership is also speedying up making officials declare their assets. And today, news have it that the ex-PBoC president Dai XiangLong's family has substantial interest in banks stocks, especially one PingAn Insurance before HSBC bought a stake. 
And government officials are busying selling their properties and shares amidst social security pension funds, overseas funds pile into buying the dip. When the selling is done, the significant peak would be in. Again pensioners lose.

Most people hate Euros, looking at financial news, they are trying to hype the Euro crisis again with Spain facing billions in debt repayment, Merkel warnings, etc.
Nonetheless, one of Europe best performing market is Greece.

In the year of 2013, Bernanke would have to do battle with divine "13" curse with his cloak and dagger. And Obama would be bathing in his second term glory. 

Meanwhile Japan corporations busying selling YEN and buying up whatever overseas assets they can lay their hands on. So it seems so unfair for the Chinese, Europeans, when they have to sell their assets on the cheap. So decision time: pursue devaluation, or ban Japan investments. Japan is sponsoring another Carry Trade debacle amidst trade deficits. So watch out Japan Bond yields is going to sky rocket like the Greece, Spain and Italy.

China real intention is on the Philippine sea not the Senkaku island, as the Philippine sea command several blocks of precious oil fields. And China is downgrading its warship to coastal patrol craft, and ramping production of warships. F35 would soon show up in Japan. And US navy would congregate in Subic Bay once again. As some geomacer have forecasted, there would be inevitable skirmishes between the Navies. 

Not forgetting that North Koreans missles can strike Washington DC, and Kim Jong Un has called for peace on the 31 Dec 2012. 

China consumption would be sufficient to sustain a CRB rally, if it has bottomed in December.   And soft commodities would be in shortage in 2013 due to the widespread drought and flood.  Limited ethanol production would put a floor on Crude.  There would be a good chance that Crude would revisit 120.

So we have the verdict, QE has cushioned deflation, but fueled the next cycle of inflation. Watch for wide spread inflation globally, calls for Weimar era, and massive social unrest all over the world. 

With Assad soon gone, Iran would be next. And the Oil Drum is going to light up. When Bernanke steps down in early 2014, we should be getting about 3% in core inflation, but countries like China would be back to 6% amidst a 7.5% growth, scary.

Norovirus is now rampant in Japan, and some mutated form of H5N1/H1N1 is circulating among Persian countries, we should expect a busy WHO in 2013, with major outbreaks globally.

Now Tokyo is as contaminated as Fukushima, with Japanese females ingested caesium daily with more deformed babies coming. The wealthy ones are now evacuating silently. Leaving behind the poor, the old and weak. This would coincide with Japanese buying assets overseas as they flee their countries, selling anything Japanese. Essentially Abe, replacing Noda, has given the green light to flee. Abe would build so much more new Nuclear stations in Japan that Japan is not meant to be inhabited. 

If you have a choice, take a hike in 2013 and come back in 2014 for great opportunities. Otherwise, if you have to make a living like all other (dumb) Fund Managers, you have to be on your toes constantly, you cannot afford to doze, or even take holidays.