2 Jan January Effect

Market holding up well. HK has risen a 2.4%. this is the moment when Fund Managers have to put others' monies to work, and the market would oblige.
Meanwhile, Singapore, canary in the mine, has a contraction in its 4th Quarter. Though China PMI has inched above 50, reason for the Tuesday exuberance in Asia.

S&P holds flat for 2011, comparing 1st and last day.
While Asia markets fell 10% to 20%, evidence of Fed Levitation.
Meanwhile, India opening to foreigner to have direct stake in Equities. Probably the India owners are in a hurry to cash out of their investments rather than sharing opportunities. In Asia, you would end up buying an empty shell with 51% shareholdings. And your Indian Partner setup shop somewhere with your cash. India is a big bubble.

As for Predictions, Andy Xie has the most despair forecast, with 2012 being worst of than 2008. He has been right on many occasions, the only miss was that the China housing slump came earlier than he predicted. He did mention that BRIC is a bubble, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Think the tycoons in those countries are now trying to beat a silent retreat without raising public attention.

In 2012, we would expect business owners, employers to provide national service to provide salary to fellow countryman, often under governmet pressure. And also to squander away their reserves while doing so, putting up a pretence of activity.

We are in a Deleveraging cycle, and it is not a straight line deleveraging with deflation and reflation along the way.

I am still holding onto my belief that QE3 would come in 2012.

Meredith is much ridiculed for her miss on Municipal Bonds. Commercial Real Estate did not burst. She just may have the last laugh in 2012. the market has now to decide to flip to Japan or US after Europe.

So there are still some bubbles around: agriculture land, treasuries ? Asian currencies would suffer, when countries like India exhuast its large but finite foreign reserves, when Ruppes get ripped. ( I was lucky to have gotten out of my trading with my Indian businss partner in Q3 of this year).

Meanwhile, hold on for the rally to 1290. While the Vampire Squids pile up shit higher and higher, the squirrels dig a hole through the wall and flee.

Sakorzy wants Europe to ban Iranian oil by end of January. While Iran is sabre-rattling, ever so cautious not to step over the line. Imagine Iran now can process Plutonium from the fuel rods, and able to deliver long distance missles. Their remaining challenge would be to miniaturise the nuclear fixture. By the end of 2012, Iran would be ready with an arsenal of nuclear projectiles. Probably, sharing technologies with North Korea as well.
And GOLD is cashing on this fear to pull in the last Mohicans.

Indonesia, Southern Thailand and Malaysia are seeing rampant floods. Nancy is gaining credibility with her predictions of the Sunda plate being the first to go.
while Singapore is going to build a underground city 30m deep. IF the tsunamis is going to be 50m tall, going underground or undersea is the only choice.

UPDATE
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I got a lot of enquiries from my readers about the surge in GOLD. Gold is heading for the 200 days moving average at 1630.
and Technically, the MACD gave a positive divergence, that is why there is a lot of technical buying at 1520. Gold should be able to pierce the 200days ma latest by Wednesday Asia morning.

Gold now at 1599, Euro at 1.3055. SPX at 1282, reaching my target 1290 initial.
Ahoiii, ALL ON BOARD !!!