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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

10 Jan the coming USD rally and end of US recovery

FED governor Raskin said yesterday:
Appropriately tailored enforcement against these mortgage servicing practices is necessary as one way to rebuild an important sector of the housing market. Accordingly, current deficiencies must be corrected.
What's more, financial institutions need to understand that they are responsible for assessing the effects their actions will have on consumers and the country as a whole, and factor those considerations into their business decisions. We should not forget that effective enforcement of our laws can animate our efforts as policymakers, regulators, business innovators, legal educators, and lawyers in creating the conditions that must exist for the emergence of an improved mortgage-servicing model that hinders neither economic growth nor homeowners' legal security. If a law is worth having, the law is worth enforcing.

Now FED thinks foreclosure is preventing the economic recovery. But which Mortgage servicer are they going to catch?

Caldaro has spoke of the multi-year bull market in USD. And over the weekend, having spoke with a prominent economist, he also says that the only way out for Europe is to keep devaluing Euro till the Southern Europe's export becomes competitive.
That means Europe becomes an attractive place for manufacturing and investment. And likely China, Asia is going to follow suit, because of their basket approach to currency.

Now that does not bodes well for US, as foreign earnings for companies like Caterpillar, IBM, Apple would be lesser. And the strengthening USD actually takes the wind out of US recovery.

Probably, that may be the basis of QE3, when Benny wants to set USD back on a depreciation track. Debt is becoming more expensive for Benny.

If I am not wrong, we are just on the threshold of a period of USD strength and economic weakness, i.e. US growth rate would be back below 2%, sluggish, and may be with a quarter of surprise Zero if not negative growth.

There is a good rally going on in Asia, with China leading the market, as their premier WenJiaBao came out yesterday and did some cheerleading. And the world's greatest human migration event has started yesterday, with millions of Chinese making their way back home. It started earlier this yr, possibly bcos of low activities. Some may not find work when they return on 30 Jan. Chinese new year is on 23 Jan. So we should expect China to near shutdown mid of next week.

And Sakorzy has moved the meeting on Iran oil embargo to 23 Jan. So expect some volatility to come. And US Navy General has admitted that Iran can shutdown the Homuz for a while. AND IEA has planned to release 1 month of Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Expect them to put all these to good use.

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