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Sunday, January 29, 2012

28 Jan Off to Beijing

Ok, we wrapped up this week of Davos meeting. Conclusion: the market is still in a bull mode, as US recovery is gaining steam and the FED is providing a floor with hopes of QE3.
Euro is prevented from collapse with QE3 coming in March. Market is expecting a deal in the Eurozone by Sunday. This deal is the result of last November Eurozone solution. They bought 3 months of time to reach this coming deal. If it falls through for some reason, assumptions made last Nov is no longer valid.
The next big rally in coming in China when it opens its market on 30 Jan. I am flying off from Zurich to Beijing now, I have taken some profits on my US trades and now have invested them in China via HK H shares.
I see an extended wave 3 in SPX, which brings us to 1360, from the current 1313 level. This is to support next week FACEBOOK IPO and the rally in China, Taiwan.

As China blocks blogger, I may not be able to post. However I am updating my subscribers through newsletter. You may sign up as a follower of this blog and I exercise my discretion if I want to include you in my newsletter.

Happy trader, trader safely.

Friday, January 27, 2012

27 Jan 666 666

you know what, to my horror, 666 + 666 we get 1333. SPX hit 1333.

Tom Keanne has to bring out Stiglitz in Davos to talk about unknown Credit Risk, contagion, blah, blah, blah.

Shit, things not going right. The Funds guys are meeting tonight at the Piano bar, let me get over there and ask them what is going on, stay tune.

Update
--------
The Funds guy told me bcos of the Coronal Mass Ejeculation (CME) this early morning, (see the Auroras in US), some of the HFT machines were short circuited. They are fixing it now in New York. Expected time of recovery is 2pm, right after the New York lunch. The escalator climb would resume.
Phew!!!!

http://fukushima-diary.com/

now the Fukushima kids are picking up Thyroid cancer, and the school is stopping them from evacuating.
My Tokyo colleagues in Tokyo are now asking for return home, incase the Japanese government institute border control like what you see in movies.

Update 11 pm ET
--------------------
sorry, I got too relaxed in the piano bar and fell asleep. Anyway, the HFT said they restarted the Algos, but use the parameters of last yr, so pushed in the wrong way.
Nonetheless, they got it fixed ready for Friday opening. They advice me to enter pre-market open for the wave 5 move towards 1360.
Meanwhile HK opened to a new high.
So at least the markets are all now in sync for the next move higher when China reopens on 30 Jan.
In Davos, they lined up Noreil Rubini, Joseph Stiglitz and Stephen Roach to scare everybody into selling.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

26 Jan Iran ready to talk

now Iran says it is ready to talk, and crude ram through 100.
next week the Chinese is coming back from holidays, and mid of Feb, China next premier Xi Jin Ping is going to White House, a China rally is inevitable.

And Obama is going to give this Mr Xi a lecture on trade while on national TV. It is a election ploy and China is willing stepping into it, in the name of appeasing America.
When Obama wins the election, he is going to tighten the noose around China in the China sea. What has to come has to come.

In the academiac circle, it is expected that in 2018, China would surpass US as the world economic power. And by then, China would have its fleet of 5 to 10 aircraft carriers. It is also the timeframe, when China would take over Taiwan in some form.

So expecting a mild pullback in SPX and ram through 1330, 1340. This would last till end of Feb,  target 1400. Though the rally in China would be fast and furious, as one Baring Asset manager has spoken in HK today. A lot of Funds are positioned for this coming rally for SHCOMP to top out around 2500.

Everything is Hunky-Doory, with low rate till 2015, time to take up some cheap loans and invest for quick gains.

Merkel is giving hint of a Greece default. And IMF, ECB are preparing the firefall when the Credit Event takes place.  Hopefully it is just 15billions for JP Morgain. While Worldback is preparing 50billions for countries affected.
Rightfully without intervention, Gold should be around 2300 by now.

Apple has become a large part of S&P interms of capitalisation. S&P is not going to recede unless something dire happens to Apple. The tickerguy has stepped up his attack on Apple linking it to its main contractor Foxconn and its frequent incidents of workers suicide. (pretty sure, the workers lay curse on the IPADs, IPHONEs, so good luck if you buy one).

this Europe crisis is now degraded to a concert, or a farce. So nobody is really trading on it. Euro is keeping its steam, ready for 1.3300 and beyond.

It is cold and thick snow in Davos here.

Meanwhile in Asia, a Asian bank's brokerage had a breakdown in their trading system for the entire morning trading session,
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1179138/1/.html

A lot of moms and pops lost their monies, not able to sell when the market starts to slam down.
In thin market, every cents count. The brokerage is not so generous to allow you to take profit on their warehoused deals.






Wednesday, January 25, 2012

25 Jan FOMC and the American Day of Shame

profit taking ahead of FOMC across all instruments. Most notable is the USDJPY move, with JPY weakening, after Noda announces to raise sales tax to offset deficit. Though it has to be passed by parliament and instituted year after.
Seems like Japan is now feeling the pressure of Deficit crisis. Would the rating agencies wait for Noda ?
Japan also lower economic forecast. Higher taxes in slower growth.

Would Benny annonces QE3 to give Japan a boost ?

State of the Union
------------------
instead of going after those Banksters who fleeced taxpayers monies, Obama announced war on millionaires. This made Jim Rogers who quit his US Citizenship years ago seem so smart.
30% tax is big deal. Imagine a hard-working executive who has to contribute $3 for every $10 he earns to fund some drunkards on the streets, it is hard to stomach.
So Obama has made this a Rich-Poor election, with Romney right at the opposite.
While congressman having to pay 30% tax, however they have other grey incomes. While academic staff like me, slogs through schedules, have to lose 30%. This is simply not acceptable.

With World Economic Forum at Davos, a growing audience is really pissed by Obama and wants a Atlas shrug moment.


Obama wants to setup a sanction China Trade Commission, while China Chairman in waiting, XI Jin Peng wold be travelling to US in FEB. XI has more to answer than to request. Like the rampant accounting fraud in China companies listed on Nasdaq.
Now it seems like there is some form of anti-dumping tax on anything mass manufactured from China, like rubber tyres, solar components, etc.


Update from Davos
--------------------
UK is really in the spotlight, with its chances of a Western offshore center for RMB growing. Next institutions would remit monies into London in GBP, and then convert to RMB. In a way GBP is "pegged" to RMB. This "peg" would also make RMB more convertible.
So one of the blackswan trade would be the rally of GBP back to its glorious days.
While Germany and EU would provide for a cheaper Euro to make the Southern Europe more competitive.
Of course, if you want to assault GBP, you need the nod from Uncle George, the master of Currency War.

I would be meeting some Free-Masonites and Illuminati to plot the next move.

Update from Davos update 1 am ET 25 Jan 2012
--------------------------------------------------
We are now clustered in this cosy suites of ours in this swanky hotel in Davos, and ready to trigger the trade at 1 am ET. Our pals have just returned from their Chinese New Year holiday, we are ready to make this first trading day of the Black Dragon year a bang. 5 more minutes.

Now all my Europeans colleagues are grinning smugly at us, the Americans, with the thought that finally all Americans and Europeans academics and executives are now on par with taxes.

Side chat
----------
sitting in a cafe, one guy was trying to sell insurance linked investment product to a couple. He has to talk about conspiracy theories, having attended a funeral to persuade them to buy.

Update US 10 AM ET
-------------------------
current pullback seen as wave 4, for the eventual wave 5 after Bernanke talk today.
Obama state of union:
Hundreds years ago, Afroamerican is liberated and given equal rights as their white masters. Yesterday, January 24 2012, a descendant of the Afroamerican created a rift between the whites and the blacks, instead of uniting the nation.
It would be remembered in American history as the day of shame.
And the shadow of the BEAST is getting clearer towards the fateful day of the Winter Equinox.

SPX should be heading towards 1300, and then again to test 1320 and onwards into 1330 to 1340, before a larger pullback.
While Euro would hit below 1.2900 and then off to 1.3150 to 1.3200.
Gold may drop to 1620, then onwards into 1700, 1900 and off to 2500 eventually.

Essential wait for dips, and go aggressive on longs. This shold carry into early Feb 3.








Monday, January 23, 2012

23 January QE3 is coming and the State of the Union address

by the action of Euro, Gold, AUD and their parabolic rises, QE3 is coming.
In thin Asia trading, Euro rams through all the shorts, and triggered the avalanche of shorts covering.

SPX to vault over 1320 at open. If you have access to pre-Market open, do it.

Currently in Davos, going to meet up with Mr George.
According to my contacts, Benny would announce QE3 after the State of the Union address.

Update
--------
Impressive Euro rally from 1.26 to 1.3052. The bears are killed for sure, especially the Asian bears who got their margins eaten amidst the holidays.
Though SPX is taking a dip from 1320, wait for divergence and go long again. Ahead of FOMC, dun get caught on the wrong position.

CNBC is running a documentary on the missing billions issued by the FED in Iraq. And fake USD million dollar Lincoln bonds are appearing in Philippine.

Iran is threatening Homuz blockade after the decision from Europe. Though it takes 6 months before those Europe embargo kicks in.








Saturday, January 21, 2012

21 Jan Fukushima Diary and the Anti-Christ.

Against the Media Blackout in Japan on Fukushima nuclear reactor reporting, some brave souls have been setting up blogs to record the on-goings.

http://fukushima-diary.com/category/bnews/
www.enenews.com

Suspected Hydrogen explosion in Reactor 4 has happened in January. And the Spent Fuel Pool (SPF) is boiling. And possible collapse of the SPF on the roof of the buildings would lead to massive evacuation beyond Tokyo.

Japan is having the next election coming soon. All Green concerned people should stand for election and get into parliament and institute the right policy response.

The cold shutdown in a farce. The Japan government has to resort to this coverup at the request of IAEA and the US government. This again show the works of the BEAST, culling the death of humans. Anti-Christ has arrived and now doing HIS work. For those who follows my blog, you know who is the Anti-Christ.

The darkest hour shown in US on 25 December 2012 heralded this wave of rally. It says "survive the Holidays". Is the Holiday over ?


Santorum is now emerging as the Strong candidate in the Primaries. We are likely to see a Clash of Christ and Anti-Christ in the coming election.


The most notable event on Friday trading was the ram-through of Silver through 32. And you sense everybody getting so bullish on Gold and Silver. So the Goldbugs neber get slaughtered ? Next week would tell.
The rise of Silver, you can the amount of Shorts out there for PM as well.

Reuters report the Creditors representatives left Greece without any results, leaving subsequent talks through phone. Has they achieved it and leaving the nitty-gritty to phone conferences.

Silver telling the forthcoming of QE3 ?




Friday, January 20, 2012

20 Jan Last trading for the RABBIT year, so we begin JOURNEY 2.

yes, the Rabbit year is ending. And looking at how Rabbit behaves, it hops from nests to nests. As the Chinese saying 狡兔三窝。The cunning rabbit has three nests.
We see the market making a roller coaster ride like the rabbit jumping nests to nests. And it is so happy that its duty is ending. To it is jumping out of hiding to welcome the Spring.

Now comes the Black Dragon (壬辰), (black is equivalent to Water in Chinese astrology). In fact it is going to herald lots of water, as the water dam (辰)is going to be breached. We can expect a lot of calamity relating to water in this new year.

First, we would have snow storm in China, alike the ones in 2008. When snow cripples most part of China.
Second, there would be tsunamis across Pacific Ocean, possibly submerging Taiwan, the South-east Asia. To some it is akin to what you see in the movie 2012.

When water is abundant, wood would float. fire would quell. The real estate and housing industry would be directionless, like a floating piece of timber. Fire, akin to Oil, Petrochemicals industry would be receding. And abundant water would drain Gold. Expects Gold not to do well. As Gold is suppressed, expect Hedge Funds like Soros to do well. Soros would make a major assault this year. Soros does not have much time to live (unless he takes my exlixir), so he is going to leave a legacy. And in a year of abundant water, the Republican Elephant is going to wade through the flood, while the Democrats Mule would be almost drowned. The Republicans would be doing better and better starting February, while Obama would be besieged.

As Dragon is rummaging through the water, expect another roller coaster year of larger magnitude. Higher peaks and lower troughs, i.e. expect SPX to breach 1400, and breaks 1000. But no confirmed Bull or Bear trend.

As the deity of wealth is in the WEST. Expect Western markets, i.e. US and Europe to perform better. Asian markets would be struggling, especially those in South-Eastern Asia, i.e. Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. Thailand would be hard hit.

So to ride the peaks and troughs, you are advised to follow my blog or subscribe to my newsletter. It would save you tens of thousands if not millions.

Ever since, China markets allow future and options to short, the markets have been on a downride. And pretty sure they are enjoying it, ready for the next ride down.

SPX to hit 1320 today, and Gold to kiss 1666 goodbye.

To borrow a cliche from Journey 2 - Mysterious Island, BELIEVE THE IMPOSSIBLE, DISCOVER THE INCREDIBLE, 



Did you not see this Water Dragon (eel) ? like the Lochness monster ?

Update Asia close
-------------------
A Chinese geomacer got this to say:
" Wealth
There will be some unavoidable financial loss to deal with this year, so be sure you have a back-up plan. Bear in mind that any loss will not be a bad thing – there is a good chance you’ll be able to recoup what you lose.
"

Loss is not a bad thing. Let us all have losses. Would you ?
so make yourself a follower of my blog (see right handside of the Blog), and get rid of those daily nonsense.

Euro hit a high of 1.2986 and poof, it drops.
and Gold hit a high of 1670 and poof, today it managed a high of 1658 at London open.

And Hong Kong Stock Index passed 20,000, a first time in so many months.

So it is now SPX, INDU, NDX turns to welcome the year of the BLACK DRAGON.

The other baffling thing is that USD is weakening. Last high was 81.78.
TBE To be explained.

Update US Open

despite the warning from GE, the "meltup" continues. The fall of Euro is arrested on hopes that Greece creditors would reach agreement.

Gold now melting back up to 1655 after reaching 1645.

Hence there are definitely a lot of convinced buyers out there with every dip.

AUD did very well, reaching 1.0470.

Still looking for SPX to reach 1320, before I decide next move.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

19 Jan SPX heading for 1320, Massacre of Goldbugs coming.

yes, SPX ever inching up in a elevated crane. closed at 1308. The final surge should come on Friday, option expiry.
I never believe 8 points from a major round number like 1300 constitute a top. IT has to move closer into 1330 to 1350 for a major top.

Meanwhile HSI going to touch 20,000, a target so elusive for most part of 2011. And when the Rabbit Year last trading day is coming on 20 Jan, it finally goes there. Now HSI at 19912.
Gold challenging 1666 again in Asia morning.
No hurry.

National Association of US Investment Companies reported 1,4b of equity inflows in January 2012. total 11b flowing to Bond and Equity. So Bond flow still quite substantial.

Estimated Flows to Long-Term Mutual Funds Millions of dollars


12/14/2011 12/21/2011 12/28/2011 1/4/2012 1/11/2012
Total Equity -5,917 -4,690 -5,085 -9,365 1,434
Domestic -4,229 -2,807 -4,111 -7,079 753
Foreign -1,689 -1,883 -974 -2,285 681
Hybrid 752 172 460 454 1,951
Total Bond 5,545 2,272 2,073 3,298 7,868
Taxable 4,684 1,090 1,079 2,120 6,124
Municipal 861 1,182 994 1,178 1,744
Total 380 -2,246 -2552 -5,613 11,253
Euro making a dash for 1.2800.

Nowadays a lot of retails are operating robot trading, sign up for a personal account, set the algo, and let the program takes over. E.g. trade at every MACD or Stochastics crosses. So they accumulate tiny profits. With trailing stops. In this trending SPX, most accounts are showing up handsome profits.

Watching Gold at 1666, Silver at 30.5.

My view is that China GDP would inch towards 8.1 in the next few quarters, when China is manoevring a soft-landing.

Latest in: Greek bondholders now refusing the haircut.

Now Iran Homuz block is neber heard of, Israel attack on Iran also fizzles out. Smoke Screen. It is going to be hell of a bull trap for those who buy on war drum-beat. Massacre of the Gold Bugs coming.

I always revert back to watching this video. See how it moves from a spectator watch to a stampede.



Update
--------
News has it that Iran is ready to talk again.
Iran is pressed when all its customers are now talking to Saudi Arabia to secure supplies.
Talk or no talk, when Iran contracts expire with customers, they are not going to renew. Hence in other words, the world oil supply has artificially cut by 30%. And OPEC, Russia, etc would be pushing up oil prices in response. So we are going to enter into a summer of high oil prices oscillating between 100 to 120.

World governments would be deliberately slowing down their engines to buffer any high energy prices.
Am waiting for my Hong Kong stock to hit target for my Red Packet.






Wednesday, January 18, 2012

18 Jan 2012 Economic Forecast

yes, 3 more trading days before the China market shut down for a week.
Meanwhile, Asia markets hold on to gains.

China 4Q GDP slows to 8.9%. And the China government declares that they are on track for a economy transition. According to my department economic forecast for China, the 2012 Quarterly GDP is going to fluctuate between 8.1% to 8.9%. Nothing to fret about.

Eurozone is possibly entering 0 to 0.5% growth in 1 Qtr. While US growth may hover 2%.

So it is not all gloom and doom. The Greece debt would resolve itself 'as usual' in March. That explains why market is holding up, especially in front of 22-23 FOMC, when all pigeons are on board.

Buy into dips and put on trailing stops. Expecting SPX to move into 1320-1330, my target published week ago.


Tuesday, January 17, 2012

17 Jan Chinese New Year Margin Call

yes, most of Asia would be shutdown for 2 days to 1 week, e.g. China, HK, Singapore, Vietnam, etc. Liquidity wold be very thin in Asia.

And my Asia broker got this to say:

Buffering against market volatility


During uncertain times, it is not uncommon for markets to experience high volatility amidst economic uncertainty. The speed of large fluctuations in market prices could potentially catch investors unaware, and in extreme scenarios may result in positions being liquidated without a prior Margin call.We would like to take this opportunity to kindly remind clients to practice good risk management and take proactive steps in these volatile market conditions and uncertainty.
Clients are strongly encouraged to put in funds to maintain a healthy buffer in their account fund balance on top of their Maintenance Margin requirements. This will help to safeguard against any sudden adverse market movements and mitigate the cutting of positions in the event of urgent margin shortfall situations.

---- end quote -----

Meanwhile GOLD is inching towards 1666. A powerful call to the world.

Update 3 AM ET
------------------
Spot Gold has touched 1667. Euro made a dash up. It is going to be an awful opening today in US markets.







17 Jan China at Saudi Energy Summit

While Obama sent out a team trying to meddle in crude supply and demand. Wen JiaBao of China arrived into Saudi Arabia and secured contracts to build refineries in Saudi, spoke at world energy summit, speaking about new framework to trade energies.
China realises it is at the mercy of Western influence when it comes to energy security. With OPEC countries having their own refineries at home, companies like Shell, Exxonmobil may have smaller role in future.

Meanwhile Jamie Diamond boasted that he can take 15billion of losses on Europe sovereign debt. Tuesday would be interesting. Suspect that Fed would come to levitate the market once more. With QE3 coming in March, sellers are hard to come by.

I am still of view that SPX would rise to 1320 before any significant pull back. Believe a short covering rally would be happening before option expiry on Friday.




Friday, January 13, 2012

13 Jan JPM dissapoints

yes, a morning stroll into a cafe, sit around, and you can hear: a retrenched banker calling up old retrenched colleagues if they want to co-invest in a event company, carrying his laptop plugging into the electric socket in the wall. husband and wife arguing where to stay when they sell their houses, while their kid wander around looking at children program on the IPAD. Before I walked in, one cake shop was vacated, so was another pub. well, counting the days. Today is Friday the 13th. It gets on a rough start. and that is it. Some rating bitch downgrades Europe countries. Diane Swonk says wait till Tuesday to see the full impact on Europe market then US market. APPLE store in China got beaten by eggs when huge crowds turn out for Iphone 4S. And I have alerted my subscribers to Lawrence Page of Google sold 34 millions of stocks on 9 and 10 Jan. If you are bullish on Tech, QQQQ is a good buy, especially if it ever gets close to 55. It had been holding 55 exceedingly well. Tomorrow would be Taiwan election day, China is on its toes watching. There is the BLUE Mah YingJeou, GREEN Cai YingWen and Yellow Soong ChuYu. All bets are on BLUE. My bet is on GREEN.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

13 Jan Journey 2 Mysterious Island

The sign from Divine is here. Incase, you do not understand the power of Hollywood movies, see what " UP " did to the market in 2009. And then Harry Potter's movie "This is the END". Now the movie is Journey 2 Mysterious Island. Because my stance is BULLISH, the bull market has started from 1075 low. AND Wave 1 has completed, and now we are about to move into wave 2, a retracement. It can be a shallow retrace to 1200 over a longer time period or a sharper 1100 in a short time. But there is a clue: it is a Mysterious Island. A.k.a., we see an Island reversal, with an impulsive down move coming. Which suggests quite a move. Otherwise, we would not have the movie right ? IT is showing 3 Feb in UK, 10 Feb in US and 19 Jan in Asia, before the Asian's Chinese New Year. US market may hold up for another month, possibly hitting close to 1400, or it maynext week just turn belly up on 19 Jan, a Thursday, also before options expiry. So put on your trailing stops, we still can load up on dip, go for one more round of drinks, and then full gear for a downslide. did you guys watch the Bungee jump when the safety rope snapped ?
Goldmanknight Tim Geithner was in Beijing, he was sitting in audience to Wen JiaBao in the great hall. And when Wen JiaBao was speaking, his eyes were oggling at the ceiling. Tim studies in Beijing when he was younger. He was a bad boy then. Last time he spoke in Beijing University, talking about STRONG US DOLLAR, the entire hall of students laughed. End of January, Obama would institutionalise the Taskforce to investigate China trade malpractice. China has flatly denied any import of Iranian oil. So to prove he means business to drum up conservative's support, Obama may start some fire on banishing trade with China banks (of course to no avail). However, there is a risk, if the Goldmanknights have set sight on Chinese Banks, they may use this opportunitiy to launch an attack on China banks from Hong Kong. Sometimes a seemingly pussy punch hides a dagger. However Japan has decided to please Obama and announced steps to reduce Iranaian Imports. Japan nuclear reactors are mostly shut. and if they curtail their imports, to replenish it from other sources. The demand would keep Crude prices up. Embargo or not embargo, WTI Crude is heading for 120. Now it is time for the Funds to think about USO and UNG. The main event to watch is these Saturday Taiwan election. China has largely supported trade with Taiwan, benefitting the business owners, conglomerates, while the farmers still earn peanuts. It is a test of the 99% against 1%. Apple's greatest Taiwanese contractor Foxconn has exploited cheap labours in China under favourable trade terms with China, and the boss of Foxconn has sponsored airtickets to fly all his Taiwanese staff back to Taiwan for election. It is time for Divine to intervene. JPM results out on Friday. This would fire the first salvo for the so-called Banking recovery, when the Funds are piling into Financial Stocks since Day 1 of this year.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

11 Jan Chinese New Year Red Packet

China Wen JiaBao wants to give the market a Big Red Packet asking for confidence measures.
True, if the market price falls further, then the Banks may need to have margin calls on the Chinese companies which are heavily indebt. Some Chinese insitutions have went to buy up Blue Chips. A lot of European banks have interest in a lot of China companies, and they need to sell at a higher price to deleverage. I.e. again Chinese investors would be the ones to buy into their high.
It is like the Chinese companies back into 2008, when the curfew on selling was lifted, and the owners just dump their stocks. So we should see the next wave of selling coming amidst the bounce.
It would be like China Hu JingTao giving Sakorzy and his Bank minions big fat red packets.
Timmy is now in China asking for a lot.
Obama announced his new military strategy with the spear into China's throat, and then setup a taskforce investigating China trade malpractices.
Infact one Nasdaq China companies, Cleantech is suing Nasdaq for discrimination.

And Timmy is asking for gifts from China, sanction Iran, Yuan appreciation, etc.

Like a BAD GUY, GOOD GUY think to sucker China.

OF view SPX would be heading towards 1320. Gold to head towards 1700 at least before a pullback.

11 Jan next FOMC

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-fed-voters-point-out-stimulus-benefits-2012-01-10?siteid=rss&rss=1

market getting ahead of next FOMC on 26/27 Jan. 1290 target surpassed. next is 1320. and eventually to test the elusive 1400. It is not a smooth ride though. every 20-30 points pullback is time to reload. expect the next bump around 1320-1330 probably around Thursday/Friday.

Euro should go a bit higher towards 1.2900, Gold to test 1650 to 1660, otherwise forming a right bottom shoulder. for target at 1760.

Enjoy the ride.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

10 Jan the coming USD rally and end of US recovery

FED governor Raskin said yesterday:
Appropriately tailored enforcement against these mortgage servicing practices is necessary as one way to rebuild an important sector of the housing market. Accordingly, current deficiencies must be corrected.
What's more, financial institutions need to understand that they are responsible for assessing the effects their actions will have on consumers and the country as a whole, and factor those considerations into their business decisions. We should not forget that effective enforcement of our laws can animate our efforts as policymakers, regulators, business innovators, legal educators, and lawyers in creating the conditions that must exist for the emergence of an improved mortgage-servicing model that hinders neither economic growth nor homeowners' legal security. If a law is worth having, the law is worth enforcing.

Now FED thinks foreclosure is preventing the economic recovery. But which Mortgage servicer are they going to catch?

Caldaro has spoke of the multi-year bull market in USD. And over the weekend, having spoke with a prominent economist, he also says that the only way out for Europe is to keep devaluing Euro till the Southern Europe's export becomes competitive.
That means Europe becomes an attractive place for manufacturing and investment. And likely China, Asia is going to follow suit, because of their basket approach to currency.

Now that does not bodes well for US, as foreign earnings for companies like Caterpillar, IBM, Apple would be lesser. And the strengthening USD actually takes the wind out of US recovery.

Probably, that may be the basis of QE3, when Benny wants to set USD back on a depreciation track. Debt is becoming more expensive for Benny.

If I am not wrong, we are just on the threshold of a period of USD strength and economic weakness, i.e. US growth rate would be back below 2%, sluggish, and may be with a quarter of surprise Zero if not negative growth.

There is a good rally going on in Asia, with China leading the market, as their premier WenJiaBao came out yesterday and did some cheerleading. And the world's greatest human migration event has started yesterday, with millions of Chinese making their way back home. It started earlier this yr, possibly bcos of low activities. Some may not find work when they return on 30 Jan. Chinese new year is on 23 Jan. So we should expect China to near shutdown mid of next week.

And Sakorzy has moved the meeting on Iran oil embargo to 23 Jan. So expect some volatility to come. And US Navy General has admitted that Iran can shutdown the Homuz for a while. AND IEA has planned to release 1 month of Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Expect them to put all these to good use.

Monday, January 9, 2012

9 Jan GOLD

When Gold hit above 1900, all the Inflation buyers were out and bought.
When Gold hit 1631 last Friday, all the war buyers were out and bought.

Now QE3 seems to be further away, as Bullard has reminded us on Friday.
Last time, when Israel invaded Hezbollah, Gold did not rise.
Now with massive public position in GLD, it is a concern if there is a stampede for redemption.

Iran is using slow tactics, making inch moves. Now asking all ships to apply to Iranian navy to cross Homuz. And UK ship "The Courage" is going to cross, ahead of US Navy Carrier.

TOBIN tax is coming.

Spoke with a Chinese TA expert, SHCOMP reaching 6000 is the completion of a 5 waves move of 30 year in 2008. The correction period can be anything from 15 to 20 years.
i.e. 2023 to 2028. (2023 is the completion of a Chinese geomancy cycle).

Taiwan election on 14 January is something to watch. I would drive North Asia economy in next few years. If there is a win for the Blues, we may have a short term rally for a week before Chinese New Year on 23 January.

Friday, January 6, 2012

7 jan the vault / Yes, GOLD hit 1631

Bigboys want to vault over 1290 and 1631 for gold after NFP. Rumour. North korea nuclear event, south korea investigating. Tom demark timed 1330 in Dec 2011. Short at 1320 and stops at 1330.

Yes, GOLD has hit 1631. Dun care if it goes to 2000 on Monday. I am taking the profit home and have a nice beer !!!!

HOWEVER, SPX has not reached 1290. If you are in a hurry, you may.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

5 Jan Golden Cross







Let me share with the public what I have been telling my subscribers. The market is trying to bottom. Reason: The Golden Cross.

NDX has crossed (200 over 50 days moving average). INDU has just cross slightly yesterday, and SPX is going towards it. That is the justification for the buying since Xmas. The Funds were able to move the technicals towards a bullish bias during the Xmas lull.
The catch: NDX has not been able to ramp through convincingly after the cross. It is holding onto it.
While GOOG is towards its 700 target.
I am still in the camp that SPX would test 1290 then pull back and then 1320. It may even hit 1400 as a back test of the breakdown in the bull channel.

Meanwhile, EUR, AUD has been pulling back. This is the positioning before the NFP which would provide the impetus for the ramp through the Golden Cross for SPX.

Though US market has been doing brilliantly, Asia markets have been languishing with their governments warning of sluggish year ahead. It is to be seen how much the FED wants to lead(/mislead) other world markets. Now in 2012, all the voting FED governors are Pigeons. So Benny is trying to find some lame excuse for a QE3.

Analyst are citing fear over 120billion loan to Greece next month. When have Greece not getting what it wants ? So all this EURO positioning is a farce. Basically I can throw away any Europe news, and focus on the new bull normal.

Meanwhile beware the IDES of March.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

4 Jan All peaceful and radioactive

now it is all peaceful, should we just keep it this way for the entire 2012 ? everything just keep going up a little and a little everyday ?

Singapore, the canary in the mine, just announced that its office bearers, the Ministers would have salaries cut upto 37% and stripped of pensions. And the Finance Minister, once a potential candidate to the IMF post, sounded off that the nation may have 2 years of sub-par growth.

I just checkd with a Chinese Geomacers, who also warned that Taiwan which is in the South-Eastern part of China, 巽方,where the Star number 5, (5 Yellow 五黄) may suffer from natural diasasters like Earthquake in Chinese new year 2012, beginning 23 January 2012. This confirms my premonition all the while.
Last year the "5 Yellow Star" fell on the EAST, and Tsunamis struck Japan eastern seaboard.
As for Japan, the much anticipated Tokai Earthquake, on the South-Eastern seaboard of Japan has yet to happen. Energy has been accumulating there for centuries.

Meanwhile, trading wise, be agile, and take profits for every rollercoaster ride, much like the DRAGON back.

Update------
There is a rampant story now that a Korean fellow detected radioactivity in his seaweeds bought from a store. The seaweek is harvested off the Eastern Coast of Korea. And few days ago, a Fukushima boat washed ashore on the western side of Japan. By virtue of the ocean currents, the radioactive waters discharged from Fuku is now reaching into Korea and the northeastern seaboard of China.

I am planning to get a Geiger counter this week. I saw supermart selling lovely 1 metre long Salmons, but nobody is buying.

Meanwhile, the virulogy community is getting excited about the H5N1 case in Shenzhen, which showed that H5N1 has morphed. H5N1 in 2003, also started off from Guangzhou, then into HK, then Singapore, Cananda.

The Alaskan was worried about seals, whales getting radiated.

And mass death of birds in Arkansas, and fish off the coast of Norway, again.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

2 Jan January Effect

Market holding up well. HK has risen a 2.4%. this is the moment when Fund Managers have to put others' monies to work, and the market would oblige.
Meanwhile, Singapore, canary in the mine, has a contraction in its 4th Quarter. Though China PMI has inched above 50, reason for the Tuesday exuberance in Asia.

S&P holds flat for 2011, comparing 1st and last day.
While Asia markets fell 10% to 20%, evidence of Fed Levitation.
Meanwhile, India opening to foreigner to have direct stake in Equities. Probably the India owners are in a hurry to cash out of their investments rather than sharing opportunities. In Asia, you would end up buying an empty shell with 51% shareholdings. And your Indian Partner setup shop somewhere with your cash. India is a big bubble.

As for Predictions, Andy Xie has the most despair forecast, with 2012 being worst of than 2008. He has been right on many occasions, the only miss was that the China housing slump came earlier than he predicted. He did mention that BRIC is a bubble, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Think the tycoons in those countries are now trying to beat a silent retreat without raising public attention.

In 2012, we would expect business owners, employers to provide national service to provide salary to fellow countryman, often under governmet pressure. And also to squander away their reserves while doing so, putting up a pretence of activity.

We are in a Deleveraging cycle, and it is not a straight line deleveraging with deflation and reflation along the way.

I am still holding onto my belief that QE3 would come in 2012.

Meredith is much ridiculed for her miss on Municipal Bonds. Commercial Real Estate did not burst. She just may have the last laugh in 2012. the market has now to decide to flip to Japan or US after Europe.

So there are still some bubbles around: agriculture land, treasuries ? Asian currencies would suffer, when countries like India exhuast its large but finite foreign reserves, when Ruppes get ripped. ( I was lucky to have gotten out of my trading with my Indian businss partner in Q3 of this year).

Meanwhile, hold on for the rally to 1290. While the Vampire Squids pile up shit higher and higher, the squirrels dig a hole through the wall and flee.

Sakorzy wants Europe to ban Iranian oil by end of January. While Iran is sabre-rattling, ever so cautious not to step over the line. Imagine Iran now can process Plutonium from the fuel rods, and able to deliver long distance missles. Their remaining challenge would be to miniaturise the nuclear fixture. By the end of 2012, Iran would be ready with an arsenal of nuclear projectiles. Probably, sharing technologies with North Korea as well.
And GOLD is cashing on this fear to pull in the last Mohicans.

Indonesia, Southern Thailand and Malaysia are seeing rampant floods. Nancy is gaining credibility with her predictions of the Sunda plate being the first to go.
while Singapore is going to build a underground city 30m deep. IF the tsunamis is going to be 50m tall, going underground or undersea is the only choice.

UPDATE
------
I got a lot of enquiries from my readers about the surge in GOLD. Gold is heading for the 200 days moving average at 1630.
and Technically, the MACD gave a positive divergence, that is why there is a lot of technical buying at 1520. Gold should be able to pierce the 200days ma latest by Wednesday Asia morning.

Gold now at 1599, Euro at 1.3055. SPX at 1282, reaching my target 1290 initial.
Ahoiii, ALL ON BOARD !!!

Sunday, January 1, 2012

1 Jan 2012 2012 Nostradamus Predictions





So how should we start the new year ?
What would Wallstreet Nostradamus says ?

As the Mayan predictions is now rampant, as Bloomberg William Pesak has written, and the Mexican diplomat has also written to refute.

There would be a lot of False Prophets coming forth.

Even CNN reported a H5N1 death in Guzngzhou. There were many deaths before this, and CNN chose to report this one on the eve of New Year.

As I scan through Astrology, the Stars, I see something.

Let me start:
In Dec 2010, my family went to Tokyo, had a good time. And then the Tsunamis and nuclear event happened in March 2011. My family went to Taiwan in Dec 2011. I have this feeling that something untoward would happen to Taiwan in 2012. My doubt is confirmed when I saw an article in oilprice.com, about the threat facing Taiwan nuclear reactors.

Taiwan is also facing an epic election on 15 Jan 2012, the fight between the incumbent Blue Ma YingJeou, Blue Soong, and Green lady ChaiYingWen. The incumbent is pro-China, pro-growth, favourite of the 1%. When the Green is popular with the 99% and farmers.

The pictures show youngster camping out in Taipei cold night for the "Occupy Taipei" movement, and a sign board in the farm warning about the danger of stock market.

China has given lots of help the incumbent Blue government, trying to win over the Taiwanese people with economic cooperation. Even lately, allowing China to invest in Taiwanese banks. But the Taiwanese is wary of the communist China with its corruption and politics. And they want to put a brake to any further in relationships with China.

The stock market in Taiwan is total stale. The Soros type have assaulted the market and jacked up the Taiwanese dollar and fled. Lots of Taiwanese are stuck in positions. And they are going to take a swipe at the incumbent. If the incumbent, China preferred Blue Ma loses, we can blame it on Benny, Timmy and their gangs.

Taiwan and North Korea are going to be the destabilising element next year. However worst trouble would happen in the South-East Asia according to Chinese Astrology. A navy warfare with Philippine wold be inevitable.

Templeton may come out and chant Emerging Markets again. I would prefer LATAM to South-east Asia. Thailand is going to face more turmoil in 2012, with the coming passing of the Thai King, and a weak and biased Lady Prime Minister. We would see Thailand split between Red and Yellow, amidst another round of flood when Spring come around. Bangkok would be forced with the option of relocation.