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Thursday, November 24, 2011

25 Nov Thanxgiving

I wish all my readers Happy Thanxgiving. Enjoy it while you can. As it is not going to be nice once holiday is over.

Russian air defence put on alert. Syria and Egypt is now boiling. Iran threatens blockade. Israel is counting down. China is trying to brake its wheels slowly and steadily. While the market is like boiling the frogs, and some smarties with monies are shoving coal into the engine.

Comments flies like:
"Spotting the lowest price for bottom fishing"
When there is a pond, there are the anglers.

that explains the ladder climb downwards, drop, hold, drop.

Meanwhile, I am still updating my subscribers daily. I am busy with you guess what ?
closing my mothers bank account, and calling up the bank to cut the credit cards.

The world is crying out loud for a WAR.

Now you know why WAR dun just happen because one lunatics like Hitler cry for one. It is social, economic situation the needs a let out.
Now it is not Germany that needs a let out, that started WWII. IT is now the entire world that needs a let out.

Something like this:

Israel hit Iran.
Iran blockade Homuz, Hizbollah and Syria fires on Israel.
US and Nato bombard Teheran, Syria.
Russia intervenes, march troops to Europe border.
Georgia with US hit at Russia.
Turkey hit Israel.
Philippine Navy hit China sea patrol
China takes out Phillippine offshore posts.
Japan, Philippine, Australia and US Pacific fleet blockades China coast.
China airparachute into Taipei, innilate all Taiwan missle defences.
Cambodia hit Thailand. Thailand invades Cambodia, Vietnam sends troops. China deploys into Cambodia.
North Korea fires onto Seoul. South Korea invades North Korea.

so, somehow, somewhere, somebody decides to detonate a nuke. And that is the beginning of the end of human mankind.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

22 Nov poised for a bounce

Despite the deficit talk failed, Huangary asking for monies, Spain looms, the Asia market is holding support. in fact holding on with low volume. Sellers not in a hurry, neither are buyers.

So poised for a engineered bounce today up and above 1200 to test 1222 once more.

meanwhile, am busy closing down my credit cards and credit lines.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

20 Nov South East Asia summer

You like it or not, after Arab Spring, Europe Winter, we are going to have Asia Summer. Obama and Clinton is kicking up a sandstorm in South East Asia. Deploying 2500 troops to Darwin, in the vacinity of Indonesia, selling F15-C/D (those that Taiwan wanted) to Indonesia. And then visiting Mynmmar ahead of coming election with the participation of Aung Sun Su Kyi.

Thailand military massacred 2 ferries of Chinese sailors, Mynmmar stopping a China water dam project.

Things would happen in the most unexpected manner, despite whatever Indonesian Batik shirts that the ASEAN leaders, Clinton, Obama, WenJiaBao were wearing.
Think China would be targeting those Asian businessman with dealings with China to form a leverage on their internal government. You cant be milking China and at the same time, opposing it on other fronts.

Next year (year of Water Dragon), Vietnam and Philippine would have to decide to make a big move on oil and gas extractions from the blocks off their coast, which China lays claims to.

Meanwhile, the market, at least those still participating are expecting a rally towards Black Friday.

Some meterorological official in Thailand warned of Bangkok sinking, and pleading of building of dykes, in Netherland fashion.

The monsoon is coming in Dec and Jan, Indonesia wold be inundated by storms and floods, and possibly cyclones on a smaller scale, where water is warmer. And especially after Obama has come around a second time.

When the Chinese year is coming to an end, the water dragon is already rearing its head.

Now back to the Fukushima,
unverified news of the rods in the Reactor boiling after the Earthquake today, besides high radioactivity everywhere in Tokyo:

I have this feeling that the Reactor On is boring through the earth, making the tectonic plates brittle. The next big 9.++ quake is in the making.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

19 Nov the STIG

was watching UK BBC TOP GEAR, the STIG is Michael Schumacher, who also scored the fastest time with the Ferrari FXX.

it also shows a race between bike The black shadow VINSON, the Jaguar XK120, and a coal Train of the British Railways from London to Edinburg.
Watching the Coal Train, wonder if the coming Thanxgiving rally would be fueled by coal shoving business owners, tycoons, or so called cash rich bargain hunters.

big move is coming, you are warned.
It would be a Wave 5 completion next Friday, and up it goes,
or a endless slide.

Friday, November 18, 2011

18 Nov Breaking Dawn

sorry, was busy travelling, closing down my trading accounts, bank accounts. Nowadays, the Counterparty Risk is too high, got ot keep safe from the brokers and banks.

While the Occupy wall street people are beaten to the ground, Obama and Clinton is frolicking in Bali. Last time Obama was in Indonesia, there was the Kratau volcanoe eruption. Something untoward to Indonesia may happen soon.

we are supposed to get a breaking dawn today, let see what comes after Dawn.

Decades ago, Israeli PM Begin ordered a lone strike on Iraqi nuclear facility. And was successful. We should be expecting Israel to attempt the same.

I come across some comments that the cycles are getting shorter and shorter. So those holding long positions are just lying back and relaxing, waiting for the market to come up again. Guess that is why we see people buying the bottom now, no matter what.

Friday, November 11, 2011

11 Nov Bernanke spoke

yes, Bernanke spoke in a townhall of a group of returning Iraqi troops. What is the message ?
He is saying WAR is coming. Nonetheless he is commited to reduce unemployment, etc. There are things that he cannot control.

He said he does not believe in business cycles. So it is a matter of belief, not scientific.

The market is reacting to the cut in Europe growth forecast to 0.5%. It says that the earlier forecast of 1.5% was simply a makeup. The HK Chief Executive when he was in Washington said that HK may enter into recession. So if such a vibrant Economy is going into Recession, that means a lot of other countries would follow. It is a matter of GUT to admit it to the people. Honest man are far and few.

The IAEA report on Iran nuclear is nothing new, it was a report already existant while El Badiri was reluctant to release.

We have 1 more month before Meredith prediction of a Municipal blowup expires. So far we have Jefferson County, and JPM settles with SEC on a fine of 700K. No criminal arrest for bribing, frauds, etc. And Federal Reserve paying the Banks for the penalty. The Occupy-Wall-Street movement should focus on specific Criminal Cases and ask for indictment of the Bank executives, like B(l)anky and Jamy.

We have TEA, OWS, and now spread to University Campus, the Veterans are moving. Why are the Unions so quiet ?

As I told my subscribers, this is not the time to be GANGHO whether you are a BULL or BEAR. As you have seen, numerous forces at at play trying to prop up the market. Just look at the support for the FAS over the past months. 12xx level is pretty good in face of all these uncertainty.

USDJPY is drooping towards 75 again. Somebody is stockpiling Crude.

APEC Update-----------
Geithner is pressing China to rise Currency quicker. And Obama is asked to do the same. Why ?
B'cos USD is now the Carry Trade, sell USD and buy whatever riskier asset. So to ensure that the Carry Trade persists, it is important to have a engine, that is RMB. Raise RMB, USD falls.
However expensive RMB, means exports slows, more job loss, less consumption, more unrest. While US imports would flood China market, providing jobs for the Americans.
It is about JOBS, not CURRENCY.
With a higher RMB, USD depreciates and China holdings of US Treasuries would devalue as well. So Geithner is asking China to do the QE for them.
Hence the effect of Operation Twist has so far supported SPX at 1220. without any further measures, like a quicker pace of RMB appreciation, SPX is not going to hold any longer.

Decades of YEN carry trade unwinds bring us to March 2009 low. So 3 years of USD carry trade unwinding would bring us to ?

Last week of September, there was a sudden surge of RMB, that led to the Oct low. With APEC finishing next week, what do we have for THANXGIVING.

Still in the camp of SPX reaching 13xx before substantial reversal. Question is how is SPX going to reach 13xx, in 9 wavelets or A-B-C or XXX.

Daneric also thinks that a high higher than 1292 is coming, while Caldaro is looking at 1292 being the high, and next retreat to 1187.
Whatever path, the bias is to the upside.

Despite all the Off-Balance-Shit European derivatives than American banks are carrying, the market is still holding up pretty well.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

10 Nov Gold at 1754

if Gold breaks 1754, it is going to be a slide back to 1600, and then 1500. Now all markets are hijacked by the Italian Bond Yield, and then EURO.

The market maker just make one market and all follows, isn't this a good deal ?

SPX back to testing the 1225 level. The drop is no big deal.

Markets talking about those Off Balance Sheet instrument of Banks, like the Repo with sovereign debt is treated as cash. How much more OBS are there in European and American banks ?

China Inflation has suddenly slowed to 5.5% from 6.1%. It is quite a drop, expected to gointo 4.x region next release. The credit seizure in China small businesses is now spreading to Guangzhou, after hitting Wenzhou. China is now importing more than its export. When we hear of large properties developers in China going bonkers, that is about the bottom. Meanwhile developers are giving 20% discount to their stagnant properties. Hong Kong properties diving, while Singapore is holding up good, thanx to the European and American companies putting up expensive offices there.

Otherwise, we may see a good bounce today, as the completion of B wave retracement. (A wave from 1215 to 1272). So a C wave should complete this rally into 13xx.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

9 Nov Asteroid doom averted

yes, we are here happily clicking away. The Asteroid flew back and said goodbye.

The meltup in SPX is characterisitcs of the move during QE1, Hedge Funds with lots of cash deployed, unable to find a bottom, had to imagine a bottom at this level and start buying. So the excuse is "all the worse news have happened, nothing worse would happen." This reminded me of a friend who is a Property Agent telling me the same.

So wait for all the spare cash to work. Dun worry, you would be told when the top is in. It would be spectacular.

Full moon tomorrow, sporadic burst of earthquake in unimportant areas.

The Iran thing would take a while. The US Congressman needs their Thanxgivinng and Xmas. Meanwhile Netanyahu is accused as a liar by Sakorzy and Obama.
Would Israel do a sub-standard strike against Iran ?
At this point of time, France, Russia and China are not on the boat. The drum is beating, but we are far from the ignition point.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

6 Nov CME doom averted

yes, CME clarifies. The Initial margin would be lowered to the maintenance margin. I.e. higher buffer zone. The market has to fall to a larger extent, before it calls for margin.
This is positive for market.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

5 Nov CME Asteroids CME again

yes, there is a Sunspot AR1330 rotating towards Earth. I harbours strong flux that may through a giant CME towards earth. It is one of the largest sunspot in recent years, 100000 KM end to end. Possibilty weekend 5/6/7 Nov.

And then a big 400m wide Asteroid "2005 YU55" is passing between Earth and Moon on 9 Nov.
Some astronomers say the asteroid would tilt the equilibrium of the pull between Earth and Moon, hence triggering Earthquake.
Another group is talking about actual impact on Earth.
Impact time: 9 Nov 22:35 UTC or 5:35 PM EST

And CME again, yes it is Chicago Merchantile Exchange. It is adjusting ratio of its initial and maintenance margin of its product to 1.

All Products
Current New
Initial / Maintenance Ratio Various 1.0

There is no explanation on this formula from the CME advisory.
Current means Current Products ? or Current Ratio ?
New means New Products ? or new Ratios

it is not clear in the Advisory if the ratio of 1 applies to NEW PRODUCTS or all current PRODUCTS.
The new measure came into place on Friday market close. And effective for Monday trading. There is not enough time for the Brokers to inform its clients.
Hence I am more inclined to interpret that it refers to NEW PRODUCTS. So no doom.
However it has taken center page on some of the popular doomster site. So the naive may just do what the deception is about, liquidate.
And then CME clarifies, and a rally.

End Update:

Is it not coincidential Coronal Mass Ejection = Chicago Merchantile Exchange, is CME made for next Monday 7 November ?

I believe GOD would give the Bulls to get out. Mercy it has.

If a big Earthquake is to happen, here are the candidates that is going to cause greatest harm to human mankind:

(A) Tokai Earthquake (Tokyo reduced to shambles, Tsunamis to hit US West Coast)
(B) Canary Island Volcano eruption and collapse (trigger a massive Tsunami to US East Coast)
(C) St Andreas Fault (San Francisco hit by shock waves)
(D) Madrid Fault (US midlands)
(E) Sumatra (Indoesnia, tsunamis to traverse across Indian Ocean)
(F) Marianna Trench (Philippine and tsunamis to engulf South China, Malaysia and parts of Indonesia)

Otherwise impact at New Zealand (Christchurch), Paupa New Guinea, Pacific Island, Chile or SzeChuan China, the repercussion would not be significant.

With a Asteroid and Sunspot together, the disturbance to the electromagnetic field is unprecendented.

Now the SPX makes sense, it is doing a mini version of QE1, shoot up, arc over, another throw over and down. So it is going to side-wind into 1300-1400.

Friday, November 4, 2011

4 Nov Asia Special Edition: Europe US Banks deleveraging

Now, come crying for Papa:

Morgan Stanley EU Banks analyst, Huw Van Steenis, continues to think €2tr deleveraging of EU banking assets will take place over the coming 18 months (see report, Some Progress Supports Our National Champion Call, dated October 28, 2011).

EU and US banks’ claims on a Asian sovereign stand at US$246bn, higher than the combined claims on Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand at US$166bn. Interestingly, EU banks’ claims on the Asian sovereign alone constitute over 80% of its GDP.

It is important to note that the EU/US banks’ claims at 110% of GDP is even higher than the 95% levels seen in 1Q08. Hence, an orderly or disorderly deleveraging of EU banks could have material impact on the country’s growth potential.

During the Great Financial Crises, the country witnessed a rapid reduction in EU/US banks’ claims, which contributed to the impact on overall GDP growth.

4 Nov Elevator climb

Yes, the robot has taken over. look at the elevator climb of SPX. When humans are exhausted, the robots would take over the task.

Despite all the negative news, MF Global, Referendum, SPX is just 30 pips away from its recent high.

The movie 11:11 is showing on 11 11 11 exactly, which is the next Friday.

you know the Movie Margin Call was screened in US on 21 Oct. And now we have the Margin Call on MF Global, isn't it.
Margin Call is premiering in Hong Kong on 17 Nov, would the HK tycoons, George Soros included face their Margin Call ?

Would next Friday mark the start of the move towards 1111 ? when the Elevator got jamed and suddenly reversed ?
Or may be it is for INDU to 11111
last high was 12284.

We are having a MACD non-confirmaiton on Gold, would smart monies sell Gold and pour into Equities ?

Meanwhile, flood water is now invading inner Bangkok. the playground of the Asia Rich and Famous. And flood water may enter the underground train stations.

Remembered a month ago, there was this TV programe that shows rich westerners, touring Asian cities looking for good buys. Different rich man visiting cities like Ho Chi Min, Bangkok, etc. There was also roadshows by agents showcasing newly built Bangkok condos with a sky high view of the city.

Well, we have this now. Nature deleveraging. Force Majeure.

Think after this flood, (flood water would not go away but stagnate, poleshift), disease rampage. and everybody would contemplate selling their city properties. Mass layoff when factories relocate to higher grounds. During the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, Thai Baht was the first target. It led to the collapse of the Thai stock market, and a lot of condominiums, highways stood uncompleted.

RBS suffer a sharp drop in profits. (credit to the RBS Asia VP who drives a Bentley).
Barclays annouced staff cut yesterday. They have already cut to the barebone in UK and US, but sustaining a monstrous outfit in Asia, with the data centers, investment centers, etc. However their monies are not moving. They employed an army in Asia to manage monies that are not moving. While hiring European/American/Australian executives in Asia who get premium salaries, bonus, accomodation, children education, laundry, meals, childcare or chauffeur, if the executive does not drive a Bentley. And those executives jetset around Asia putting up in Ritz, Hyatt, Marriot suites, collecting pubic hairs of Asian woman, while their wives back in Singapore get f***** by the gym trainer.
So it is a Alice Wonderland in Asia, the desire of Bank Executives. While their peers in London, Frankfurt, New York grieved about whether their jobs remain tomorrow.

I have put in my chips, I am in the camp that SPX would climb to 1300, no matter whether Pappan got voted out, or whatever is the NFP, or whatever Taurullo says today.

4 Nov Waiting for NFP

while Papan is having his game,
let us watch what may be on the horizon: Collapse of spent fuel pool leading to mass evacuation of Tokyo.


other than the prospect that Fission has happened in Reactor 2.

a good NFP would take SPX back to 1300.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

3 Oct next MF

yes, the next MF is found: Jeffries.

MF Global is reported in Reuters of having moved funds away. For what ? Salaries, bonus, lawyers'fee, etc. Last Thursday Dick Bove was trying to rig the news by suggesting GS to buy MF Global. While MF Global is secretly talking to Interative Brokers on Sunday. and then the Bankruptcy annoucement on Monday.

It is a futile exercise to try to save any brokers/banks/institution now as they would have hid the cash away. Imagine Interactive broker was to buy MF, IB would now be helpless, or IB becomes the next target. Hence expect absence of any white knights in future.

Clients monies are frozen, and if the client move their holdings to another broker, they have to cough up the margin. So they hold double the margin with one position. Hence expect those moms and pops and banks to liquidate the positions in short time.

Meanwhile Papan shoved his dick up Sakorzy arse. And the Chinese is relieved. They do not need to work on any buyings.
And after this Friday vote, if Papan survives, the Referendum is on 4 Dec (a Sunday).

So Papan is exploiting this to his advantage. So if people wants to leave Euro, he has to be voted in this Friday.

Greece leaving Eurozone is a short term pain. Their economy would collapse, their new currency would devalue rapidly. Nonetheless, they would live in a country with 2 currency, like Macau. Macau has its own Pesos, and then HKD being more popular, and now RMB.
Greece would leave Euro, and China would move in to buy up its industries infrastructure, tourism (like Myconos, Santorini), and make RMB circulable in Greece. Greece has been on good ties with China, through the Olympics and rescue of Chinese from Libya.

If Papan wants to take the gamble, and unfortunately lost his post. The entire Papan family would be chased and stoned. May be Papan himself would end up like Gadaffi with a dagger in his arse.

Greece leaving Eurozone wold be positive for Euros.
Next targert Italy.
So we would open 2012 with Europe Debt taking center stage.

Taiwan manufacturers are already asking its employees taking unpaid leave. To the extent that the President Ma has to step into intervene.

Israel Nantanyahu is contemplating bypassing Parliament to order a strike on Iran. After launching a long range test ballistics missles.

Attended a Rare Earth conference this week. The youngish American speaker was saying "Everyman is worth his salt" and that is why Salary is actually Salt.

And currently all the major Rare Earth is tied up in China mines, controller by individual provinces. The flood in Thailand has dampened Toyota, Mazda production (Toyota hit 52 weeks new low). With Geopolitics comig, attention would shift to Gold, and the Gold stocks.

BTW, Papan choice of 4 December 2011 as the Referendum Date is bad. In Chinese almanac, that is a "Broken" day.
Whatever the vote, nothing good would come out.

So we have to postone our holidays plan from Thanxgiving to 4 Dec. And with reluctance from Bernanke to hint any precise launch of QE3, no Breaking Dawn is coming. Or rather the DAWN is breaking.

Everything is breaking. I have suggested to my subscribers to move all their cash away from their Brokers. or better still, move all your monies away from the bank and keep at home. You would be surprised you can buy more and more as the days passed.

Remembered I told of this single Divorcee, 62 years of age, saw her stocks hitting 500K and then down to 350K a month ago.

We are on the edge of a downward spiral starting next week.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

2 Nov SPX 1222 holds

news has it no Referendum, but Greek Papa may need to resign to restore confidence.

so SPX rallies. Bottom is in, waiting for QE3 annoucement,

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

1 Nov Next MF

who is the next Mother F***** ?

Dick Bove was on CXBC, and was asked who to look out for as the next MF.

Meanwhile, a lot of Hedge Funds shifting customer trust monies into their accounts to make up for losses, or shifting funds monies into their private account, to runaway.

I guess that is why Cameron is asking for calm, while the smart ones ascond away with the monies, and the Dumb ones stay "calm".

SPX futures low at 1226, Gold is perching on 1700, Silver at 33.5, now my mother-in-law and wife is really mad. So am I with Euro below 1.3700.
Market want to test Bernanke ? or giving room for the violent surge after QE3 annoucement ?

These would be the second test of 1220-1225 level. This is where SPX springs before the surge. This is where SPX corrects after news of the Finance Ministers cancelling meeting last week. So we are back there.

Just came back from my mum place. Again she is yakking away saying market is manipulated, moving up and down, bluffing people money.
Ok, let us draw the line in the sand SPX=1220, Gold=1600, Euro=1.3600
and let's complete this B, and start C upto SPX=1342.
(the risk, ISM Oct came in a recent low at 50.8, expected 52.1)
China also has a lower industrial output reported today.

Update 2 PM ET
no referendum for Greece, but PAPA may need to resign and let new person takes over.
according to the Greece ex-deputy Finance Minister.
now Euro, SPX having a bounce.