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Monday, October 31, 2011

31 Oct Holloween

UK Cameron wrote in FT urging pple not to spread dismal news. So let me talk up the markets.
I attended a Energy conference today, and spoke with IEA representatives. Essentially, Hydrocarbon is here to stay.
Majority of Japan nuclear reactors are shutdown for inspection, and none is given the green light to restart. This cannot happen past June 2012. Otherwise, Japan needs to spend a bomb importing fuel.
Prices for Natural Gas depends on the situation with Japan. and prices in Asia is much more expensive.
OPEC target is 70 to 80 USD. 90-100 USD staying for a long period would impact on economy.

So we have QE3 coming, what we have here SPX 1266 is about the shelf of the correction, before SPX rams to 1366.
Correction for Gold is not big, it is now at 1725. Euro belows 1.400.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

29 Oct Eye



Quantas on strike, severest in history. Air France on strike as well. Wage pressure is on.

Meanwhile, Thailand suffered the first round of flood, now the 2nd round in the evening. A lot of the factories are underwater. Anectodal evidences suggest a lot of the factories are essentially scrapped, workers have to be laid off. Those factories include Sony, Canon, etc. This is going to affect Japan industrial output.

Was chatting with a Canadian from Vancouver, Vacouver sits on the belt of fire. He was in Singapore when I was there for the F1. And he commented that Singapore is too flat. There is nowhere to run to.

A lot of the Asian cities are suffering from flood, Vietnam, Philippine, Mynmmar and Thailand. One pausible explanation other than the vague "climate change" excuse is the shifting of the plates. Read poleshift.ning.com for more details.

Walked through a exhibition of photographs of the Rectina of different races. And it remind me that we are in the Eye of the Storm.

EFSF is going to offer YUAN Bond. That essentially provides a floor for Euro. When there are 100 billions of Euro that China would buy, that would give it the firepower to reach 1.5000.
That means lesser USD bonds.

AND the Irish and Italians are now jealous. Watch the spread between the Italian and German 10 year bond.

News have it that Berlusconni held multi-milions dollar parties with Bikini gals, and rewarded them with fast cars and millions.

One reason why Lehman failed is because Dick Fuld is really obnoxious. Dun think Angela would want to have anything to do with Berlusconni.

Those greek CDS speculators may choose to wait for the Credit event instead of a 50% haircut. Also news have it that the German court ordered to render the parliamentary supercommittee on debt funding useless.

QE3 is now the last bazooka. When the last bazooka is used, can they dismantle the FED ?

Think the MF Global event is not yet fully appreciated in the market. It sells a lot of exotics products, commodities, alternative investment to the retails and banks alike. Now its credit lines are used up, it has to dump its assets or holdings to raise cash. Whenever there is such huge moves in the markets, somebody is gonna get burned. We would know it next week. Remember the CHF intervention cause Adoboli to blow his UBS account.

Meanwhile dun get carried away, reading doomster posting. more room to go up.

Monthend Monday.

Friday, October 28, 2011

28 Oct Aftershock

This rally is so strong that a lot of indicators have a confirmation. So expect more aftershock. interesting also to note that though the rally is strong, on a daily, the indicators are not at the recent record high.

As Elliot theory of alternatives applies. Bernanke disappointed in the previous FOMC, so we would have the opposite of Disappointment on 2 Nov.

The risk is of course profit taking before the weekend.
In the next leg down, we should start hearing about France rating downgrades, 50% defaults, and CDS tsunmais, US supercommittee wrangling. Now everybody just want a well deserved weekend, perhaps in Cannes, toasting Champagne, smart monies celebrating their profits, fast cars, lots of beaus, etc. Before the next ACT comes.

Twentyth Century Fox gave me free movie passes to Justin Timberlake " IN TIME ". seems like we are intime for a rally. however the ticket wold only be valid from 7 Nov onwards.

Even China Chanos came out and say good things about China, China on bigger faster treadmill. Reminding us of Soros presence in HK. (read my earlier blog). So I guess all the smart monies are already in China. The moment they have been waiting for.

Rogoff says europe plan buys only a few months. I guess we need just only one month.

25 Oct Tom Demark says forecast of 1257, citing a Bull Trap.

Even NKY broke above 9000. Time to think about those stocks in pension plans.

Meanwhile market also waiting on EFSF negotiation with China. China may invest from 5 to 100b. So some more waiting.
(side not, on the 5 times ESFS leverage. If EFSF bond drops by 20%, the whole Fund is wiped out)
So this is setting up for the next gamble (for 2012), with higher stakes. So China is now drawn into the game.
First US housing -> Greece debt -> China fundsthat is how contagion starts.

2 Nov FOMC would cap it all. Breaking Dawn means Dawn is broken, going back to Darkness when the Likans and Vampires rule.

28 Oct QE3

Market start pricing in a QE3, QE3 supposed to bring SPX to new height, i.e. >1500
this would last till next week, with some bumps along the way. Make your trailing stop and enjoy the momentum.
As there are very high short Euro positions going into the Summit, so it takes a while to unwind. Euro heading for 1.6000 eventually, early next yr. 1.5000 possible before Xmas.
Financials have crossed the 200 days moving average.

My wife bought some Silver months ago, now it is finally seeing daylight. I sold my Euros in 2008 at the 1.6000, however still retaining some Euro. And it is seeing daylight again.
Seems like we have an early breaking dawn.

To be honest, the Europe Summit is a bag of hot air. All the outcomes have been anticipated by the smart monies. They need a higher asset prices before selling them to raise cash. Hence Benny is coming out again and convinced the Congress that QE3 has to happen.

The talking heads on CXBC are talking about conatgion, blah, blah, blah. The coast is clear.

China is done in.
(A) lost their invesmtment in Libya to the tune of multi-billions (thanx to Sakorzy)
(B) Sarkorzy knocking on their door asking them to buying monies losing bonds
(C) Their T-bills sinking like a stone with USD plunging towards historical low
(D) QE3 is coming, and they can do nothing about it.
(E) US has allied all the south-east nation with India and Japan to defend the sea lanes.

so when China is busy preparing for Asia games, rocket launching, bank tightening, , rattling on the sea, their external positions are lost.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

26 Oct EUROPE DEBT SUMMIT ANNOUNCEMENT Euro at 1.3994/now 1.3999

yes, a new day, and still waitin upon EU. So they are hoping to announce the deal before Europe market opens.

meanwhile Euro high is 1.3994, and Asia are all in green.
Gold at 1728, bloogers are mostly bullish looking at 1258 then 1270 for SPX.

With things are these bright, do we see any defaults, risks ?
The world market has been put on a leash since beginning OCT.

Any way, Soros went on BBC Stephanomics and discouraged shorting Euro.

My Buddhism session today is titled "Emptiness and Selflessness".

Just got called from my banker enticing me to put in new funds at 0.7% interest.

So far in many years of trading, have not see a high sustained at like x.9999,
euro made a dash to 1.3999 at 1:30 am, hours after the conclusion of the Debt Summit.

Remaining questions:
(A) is 50% writedown a Credit Event ?
Europe banks hold a lot of Greek Debt, and US banks underwrite most of the CDS. So the ball is tossed back to Timmy. Possibly that is why it is pegged to 50%, it is like a glass half-full half-empty. If 50% is not a credit event, then how about 60% or 99% for that matter ?

(B) How would China participate in the Greek Debt given ESFS partial guarantees ?
Needless to say, the debt would be reduced to the guaranteed part in time to come. Would China buy knowingly that it would make instant losses ?

(C)is the leveraging of ESFS to 1.4 Trillion inflationary ?

(D) Does not Italy and Spain wants a 50% writedown as well ?

SPX futures have exceed 1261. So this is a momentum market afterall, it exceed every tops we forecast. Once you have a good profit, take and go, otherwise set trailing stops. SPX is more worthwhile to chase than Euro or Gold.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

26 Oct Gold and Apple

today, I attended a talk by a Buddhist Abbot in Los Angeles, he was explaining the Buddhism sutra "Gold Light Enlightenment" 金光经. He explains Gold is Budhha itself analogically speaking. With Gold, there is light, and one reach enlightenment. Gold is hidden underground, it cannot be defiled. It is constant per se.
In tomorrow session, he would explain emptiness.

tomorrow is CME Gold settlement.

China has threatened military actions (canon firing) in the events of infringement on its sea territories through a publication.

As I was scanning the blogs, people talking about Apple. Some says to sort it.

It was mentioned that Steve got the Apple when having a feast of fruits. Well, you know Adam ate the Apple (signifying major things to happen), Newton realised gravity from a fallen Apple. So Apple has yet to see gravity, and then would be Steve's message to the world -> a joke.

some people are trying to break SPX fall at 1222 level. Next week is Bernanke big day. What got Perry got to say now ?

Financials well supported. most stioll above 200 days moving average. most pros are on the long side, with the FOMC overhanging.

Today I picked up a new pair of Merrell running shoe at $50 in a warehouse sale.

update:
-------
everybody is expecting a Rabbit from Merkel's hat,
and simply fatigue. Imagine after Greece, then we have Italy.
another summit after summit. the world is getting tired of these summit, G20,etc.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

25 Oct BOJ intervention

now BOJ spoke. and let see if any action tomorrow, YEN looks like heading for the 60+.

between 10am and 11am ET, "Somebody" dump a mile of USD and buy JPY. and now YEN is perching on 76.00
let us watch 10 am today.

Is it the Russians ? China ? (after ridding of their US treasuries)

The Europe banksters say any forced haircut is tantamount to Default, dent investor confidence. So it is a trade. SocGen, BNP, (and US counterparts) levitating the market (Dow made the last 1000 point gain in a month only in April 1999). The punishment is ... your guess.

Monday, October 24, 2011

24 Oct Asia Citibank(er) in trouble

http://forums.asiaone.com/showthread.php?t=43850
or google "Li Ling Ling" Citibank

Sometimes, you have to scan the Asia market to get a feel of things happening. Example this Citibanker (a PR manager in Citibank based in a Asia financial center).
Probably she is tossed around inside the bank.
Probably posted by a scorned lover in the bank.
May be this is how Pandit get to destress when he goes to Asia (some Personal Rest management).

24 Oct Asia rallies INDU 11854 SPX 1249




Asia rallies, in support of the 1st meeting in Europe.
The world needs to show solidarity in adversity.

DOW 11854 is the target, it may open at that level and down move,
or retrace then move up.
11854 is the 61.8 retracement level.

AUD making a good rise, like a elevator, passed 1.04, now heading for 1.05.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

23 OCT you have 108 Bn Euros to lend ? Weird tale of CASH



See those Pistol Hands ?
Like me, Sarkozy just got a Depression era daughter.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/752c9a72-fd30-11e0-a9db-00144feabdc0.html

now Sarkozy and Merkel wants 108 billion Euros new capital for Europe Banks. Setting the stage for the SWF to raise cash. E.g. a Asia SWF Temasek just sold zero-coupon bond with option to convert to Standard Chartered Bank shares.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8834928/Temasek-raises-326m-with-Standard-Chartered-convertible-bond.html

Soon we would be seeing everybody selling whatever they have to raise cash.

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_725726.html

Talking about Cash on a Sunday.
There was this Chinese lady who won a Jackpot Cash bonus in the Marina Bay Sands Casino (subsidiary of Las Vegas Sands owned by Adelson). Her prize was 330K USD, but the Casino claimed machine malfunction, and was willing to offer 40K USD cash reward, and a car worth 200K USD. So she stands to lose 100K USD.

The winning lady is illiterate. She sells vegetarian food and volunteers for charity. She played in the jackpot machines and needed help from others to know how to play. After 30 mins of play, she won. The casino told her she won a CAR not CASH, she said she knew the difference between CAR and CASH, CAR is 3 letters words, CASH is 4 letters. Meanwhile, the casino is offering her a nice free suite stay while the regulator is investigating and the lawyers preparing.
(reminds me of brokers who claim system malfunction and ... you know what).

May be to teach her a lesson to take the Car and go, instead of waiting for perpetuity.
So an education in alphabets: CAR = 3 letters, CASH = 4 letters, CRASH = 5 letters.
So when it CRASH, you have CASH !!!!

So would you choose whatever CASH there is and run or wait for perpetuity or CRASH ?

Update
------
One of my doctoral students is currently attached to the European Commission Finance committee. And she pings me and said "it is a mess". Overlapping meetings, nothing new to say, EU commission and countries going their separate meetings.
They want Greece to present a growth plan at this late hours, and attention now turn to Italy. The ESFS would be sucked up by Greece in one gulp, nothing to leave for Italy.
Have you ever attended meetings with the Europeans? especially with German and French among the meetings ? They basically snort on one another, and back talk. And with such intense pressure over there, you can imagine what mess it is.
If Dominique Strauss Kahn is still around, things may be more manageable (but he is already eliminated by Timmy and the Squids). Lagarde is still new to the job.
I have this feeling that the 2-3 November G20 meeting would be postponed if not extended.

Asia open in 8 hours would be interesting. Australia Evan had came out to reassure the Australians on Friday. They saw it coming.

23 Oct EU update


http://news.yahoo.com/official-eu-banks-raise-140-billion-133914626.html

so now the EU is asking for help from Qatar, China and Singapore.
and Banks have to take 60% cut.
Sarokzy plan to get ECB to backstop is not working, also ESFS leveraging in doubt.
Question: who are the US bank with deep Greek debt. one glance, it is MS.

CAT gapping up,
SPX above exponential Moving average 20 days, bullish.

Expect SPX to attempt 1250-70 Monday, which is Demark target as well.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

22 Oct Cramer: Europe too big not to fail

Cramer has been on the dot lately, his latest.
Monday Caterpillar, Thursday GDP Q3.
Wed Euro Summit off course.

Expect a pop off Euro summit to 1250, and taken down by GDP.

21 Oct Market Close on Option Expiry Day

CXBC Merry Bartimomo asked the audience to watch the Market Close on today option expiry day.
It is moving towards the 61.8% retracement level at 1250 alright.
and Financials holding above 50 days moving average.
The theme has been to stay out of the market till Wednesday when things are clearer.
So expect thin volume on next Monday and Tuesday courtesy of our hosts from CXBC.

Update:
-------
DOW made it a new high right at the close 11809.
SPX was very close to the morning high.
NDX did not make it.
EURO did not make it to 1.3900 made in the morning.
XLF made a new high today for month October.

EUR hit 1.3901 right at 4:05.
SPX perching on 200 days moving average.

Friday, October 21, 2011

21 Oct Bullish Financials / Gadaffi dead








BKX last low not confirmed. This explains the accumulation in bank stock and rally in C, etc. seems like a lot of interest to protect SPX=1200. it survived at least 4 test already.
Now, the summit delayed to next Wednesday: 26 Oct, full moon. Expect a rally in next few days to test SPX=1250.
The risk is Option Expiry on Friday.
Now ESFS at 1.2Trillion.
And FED talking up need for more easing.

With Gadaffi dead, Sarkozy is immensely fortified. If he get his ESFS next week, he would be like Napolean in modern history. He championed the war and he is going to reap rewards of Libyan Oil. While China is the greatest loser, being support of the rebels only in the later part of the uprising.

So other leaders, like Chavez, Admadinejadd, Assad are scared now. They would resort to radical means like nuclear weapons to protect themselves. Gadaffi before the rebels was pro-western, but to no good end.

Now with Libya, Iraq in weak governments, the radicals would take opportunity to establish power. Arab summer is coming. and next come African Spring.
With the Kings and dictators gone in Middle east and Africa, the oil and resources there are up for grab.

Update
-------
One protestor died in Greece.

ROSAT, the spent European satellite is expected to land on 23 Oct. Destination unknown,

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

19 Oct Apple


yes, today trading would be all eyes on APPLE. The question is how many shares of APPLE does Steve Jobs trust still has ? Steve has been secretive about his fortunes, rejecting any offer from Buffet to donate his wealth.

Via Zen Buddhism, Steve tapped on heavenly forces to forge the new APPLE. The APPLE corporation becomes a master of marketing, creativity. It makes people queue up for its launches, make the device scarce in the market, so as to create Demand. And it exploit cheap labour to achieve its goal of Wealth Creation. Look at the many suicide death in the China factories which make the Apple devices. The life of many to build the shrine of Steve Jobs.

So what is his children doing with his shares of Apple ?

Another thought:
The moment 2 Trillion of ESFS is confirmed. All the PIGs, Spain, Portugal, ireland and Italy would be lining up to declare crisis and dip into the Piggy Bank.
France and Germany would be in trouble, and the fire would come onshore into Berlin and Paris.

The ESFS without a common Finance ministry is a Trojan, deviced by traitors in the EU. The objective is to burn Paris and Berlin, clever design of Timmy, Benny, and probably Blanky, Jamie as well.

Update:
Apple dropped 5% at pre-market. Got some nasty feeling it is going to be a massive Bear Trap. Apple showing a broadening top, but more room up before a turn.

Lately Banks with good earnings, drop instead. But Banks with bad earnings rises. So we shall see Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, major banks reporting is done.

IBM miss, Apple Miss. Intel good.

So market should be reflecting 4Qtr soon.

BoA did some accounting wizardry moving its bad derivatives into its business unit which holds US government insured deposits. And no Prosecution ? all in the name of holding above $6 ?

A number of Bank stocks have cleared 50 days moving average, like MS, C.
SPX heading for 1257 (61.8% drop from the 1357 peak) before option expiry.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

17 Oct China GDP 9.1% US unemployment 9.1%





the headline grapping China today is that incident of a child knocked down by a truck and 18 people never went to her rescue.

Where would this retracement ends ? 1149 ? 1167 or 1111 ?

China dropping touching important 2400, Australia also dropping like stone. AUD no reaction after Banks say cutting rate.

What would Benny says ?
"none of my business" or "you deserve this" or "let us have QE3".

China GDP at 9.1, continuiing 3 months of dowm trend. Asia drops but no panic. Brokers advising a consolidation before moving higher.
So if the consolidation completes, then we would see GOLD ramping through 1700 towards 1900 again.

Now Boehner has a problem, if he continues to block the Currency Act, then he may be charged with Treason. Especially when US uneployment = China GDP = 9.1%.


Update
------
nothing interesting to talk about, 1190 holds for SPX, while GOLD is sinking like a stone. Banks have a good day today.
So, everybody waiting for Bernanke cue for QE3.

Monday, October 17, 2011

17 Oct Elenin at closest approach to Earth

Oct 16-17, 2011 – C2010X1/Elenin/Planet-X line up with Sun and Jupiter; Closest point to earth at a distance of 0.23 a.u (~34.9 million kilometers)

so that may explain why SPX is going lower. Other than German Finance minister telling people not to expect much for the 23 Oct Euro summit in Cannes. that means nothing for 2-3 Nov G20leader meeting in Hawaii.

CNBC talking heads now trying to bring in Italy and Spain, the 2 Elephants in the room.

yes, the CNBC guy is right, when the Bank gets 50% haircut for Italy and Spain, they are bankrupt. There is fight among the 17 countries. So it is going to be a unnerving 6 days wait. Bernanke speaking tomorrow on the "R" word.

Soon you would hear the "R" word on every national TV starting tomorrow.
SPX went up 14% from the bottom at 1075. As Tom has said. Tony Caldaro also looking at 1222 as the pivot turning.

C fudge its books, and got a rally. I remembered when I started to trade C in 2008 was when it was at 20, it looks so attractive. and everybody rush in to buy the bottom at 20.

Update------
ok, my reader told me C got a rally because Cramer talk about shorting "C" last week, that explains.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

15 Oct Breaking Dawn Part 1


Yes, the Twilight Saga is coming again, Breaking Dawn Part 1 on 18 Nov in US. This should gives us motivation for the next move.

Breaking Dawn Part 2 is on 18 Nov 2012. Well, let us not be greedy, ok. BE PATIENT.

In the next couple of hour, it should have completed our target for this move.
So happy trading.
Remember, 15 Oct is World Occupy XXX Day.

Friday, October 14, 2011

14 Oct update

market is saluting the G20 Finance Ministers in Paris. Silver making a surge at 8am, Euro trying to break free 1.3800.
Futures are up. SPX to re-test 1222 at least.

A good Friday to cap a week of gains. Meanwhile, the world celebrating OWS tomorrow.

Cramer talks up Google, another says APPL is the best technology company on Earth, price target 500. I am going crazy today, 14 OCT.

China sold its Treasuries back to FED, and now have to put them back into a IMF bailout fund. Somehow, they realise the monies are not theirs afterall. All the China labourers, sweatshop, monies going to bailout Europe this time. This is monies sloshing around.

DB now has to take a larger haircut from 40% to 60% now. Have you seen a guy with a 60% crewcut ? Might as well cut bald. DB essentially is out of monies already at 50% haircut.

14 Oct Occupy Raffles Place !!!! OWS has come to Asia

http://news.xin.msn.com/en/singapore/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5398952

Singapore is one of the most business and tourist friendly place on earth. It is also where a lot of secret wealth are stored.

And OWS has gone to Singapore on 15 Oct !!!!. It is a landmark in terms of the OWS movement. But boys and gals there do not expect to makeout on the grass field. The law is pretty tight there.

Yesterday, our Japan Queen Loise Yamada has spoken. She spoke to remind people who happen to subscribe to her that the market is oversold according to her proprietry OBV indicator. And from May 2008 to Mar 2009, the market continued to be extendedly oversold.
Buttonwood has written about agitation in Northern Europeans, unhappy about sponsoring the Southerners. Meaning, more upheaval to come whatever form ESFS takes.

OWS has gone to Murdoch. Strangely, after Murdoch was swiped with cream, all these bad news of Financials erupt.

This is a Deleveraging stock market, it would need to exhaust as much cash as possible whether it is companies buyback, bottom fishing, etc.

Meredith Municipal Bond bubble has yet to come, Commercial Real Estate CRE collapse story would get a new lease of life ? How about an Internet Bubble for the likes of Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, etc. [until now, I cannot understand how Google makes its billions ? by blowing bubbles ?]

It is crazy.

Meanwhile, Equities is following Euro or Euro following Equities. With Greece default, essentially a destruction of Debt, the Currency becomes stronger. But Banks are affected and hence Equities drops. This unnatural alliance of Equities and Euro has to stop somewhere.

"Spring" and Sparrow talk

Remember Bernanke famous "Spring" talk to kick off the 1st rally in 2009. Taiwan largest Semiconductor manufacturer TSMC (barometer of NASDAQ stocks) the legendary Chairman Mr Zhang, has said in a recent dinner that the Sparrows have not come, and may not come till 2013. Little wonder NASDAQ is still so buoyant.
The electronics industry would shrink dramatically after the last Xmas shipment, when producers cut production, and inventory overhang. With electronics goods already so cheap (200 USD for a 42 inch LCD TV or a laptop), essentially the Electronics manufacturers are doing mother nature work of giving out stipend to workers.
And that would actually tell of China planning to devalue its currency, the turning point has passed. Asian countries would be scrambling to cut rate and devalue currency once more in 2012.


Dun know what the G20 Finance Ministers can do this weekend, except to sit round table looking at Timmy and LaGarde. While China is waiting for the next tea-break to sample some nice cakes. And then a bombastics announcement.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

13 Oct This Rally has legs, according to Cramer


http://www.thestreet.com/story/11275337/1/cramer-why-the-rally-in-stocks-is-real.html?puc=_mdb_html_pla3&cm_ven=EMAIL_mdb_html

Cramertards, here you are.

But Chris Materson is tossing the notion of a crash, not in Price term, but in Pace.

But we need to see a "Occupy Jamie Diamond".

Yesterday, I was at Bloomberg office giving opionions on the market. I saw they have a very nice acquarium with tiny fishes swimming. Is it not a blessings to be able to watch Bloomberg TV when you are a Fish ? or Squid for that matter ?

I bet Jamie, Timmy and Benny would be a Bloomberg office acquarium fish in their next life. Daylight robbery of American tax monies.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

12 Oct Currency War

we jsut saw DXY made a mad dash downwards. non-confirmation of new low.
Would China be so pissed that the current rally of CNY has come to an end ?
and we see a violent reversal of CNY towards weakening ?

I.e. USD strengthening ? That would pose an entirely different scenario for the world, when US earnings are going down, and stronger USD would pare overseas earnings. Earnings going down further.

While China trying to cheapen its exports to support its manufacturing.

Seems like SPX would be heading towards 1222 before the Fed minutes.
Hence it is quite difficult to short SPX, when it is making those creeper moves. Chewing up the next short along the way. The shorts would be enough to propel its rise.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

11 Oct Slovakia / Hunter Moon

that is like a Grey Swan. Now quite a lot of Funds have loaded up on this dip, thinking the bottom has been found.
But earnings season is coming, and we now that the PER is much too optimistics. The kickoff with Aloca, would herald an adjustment of a Equilibrium into 1000.

This is the moon when native American goes hunting in moonlight to prepare for Winter. So we are almost there at SPX 1200.

We are done. let us slide.

Monday, October 10, 2011

10 October Asia opening in 1 hour




yes, Asia is going to open this Sunday evening at 9pm.

Meanwhile, a village in China, the richest village where every person gets a share of their central village committee investment. and they just built a GOLD hotel to the tune of 3billion CNY. They call it LongXi hotel.

Its pillars are plated in GOLD, it has a giant GOLD BULL (not plated, but forged with 1 Tonne of GOLD). It is 61 floors. While you and I are slogging to make our hundreds and thousands. The Chinese make "making monies" like a breeze.

Probably the GOLD was acquired when it was still hovering 1200. With Christmas and Chinese New Year coming, the GOLD buyning frenzy would start if not having started over their national holiday, when prices is hovering 1600. You can probably hear the Chinese crying "I want more !!! I want 1000 dollar GOLD".

In the early 1900, Dutchies, Spaniards, and Portugeese sent their SILVER to China to trade for spices and porcelain. It is very much in Caucasian blood that we do not think much of metals like GOLD or SILVER, but human value-added things like Art, Porcelian, Food, etc. But the Chinese are on the opposite. That explains why certain big Funds, big Traders despise Metals. Bernanke is one of them, George Soros is only an opportunistics buyer, who call an ultimate bubble in GOLD.

According to some Gurus in Hong Kong (Gurus who can tell you your death date by your Birth day and time). George Soros is a person who needs WOOD (five elements: Gold, Wood, Water, Fire and Earth). He is allergic to EARTH and GOLD. So to beat Soros, one need GOLD and EARTH (Earth is analogous to real estate). George Soros has not made much in properties though. And he did sold his GOLD earlier before 1800.
This Rabbit year is not good for him, it is a year of GOLD and WOOD fighting. Next year he would be better in the year of Dragon Water. Water breeds WOOD.

SO my advice to SOROS: take a rest now, and let me take over your portfolio. They market would move as to where I want it to move. Let me decide. By the make, give me a office overlook Victoria Harbour in the International Commercial Center in HK.

So DEXIA came and went, it is 100% nationalised like Northern Rock. The Fitch downgrade of Spain and Italy smacks of market manipulation, like S&P downgrade of US, premeditated move to time the market and aiding specific interest of certain Big Funds.

Hence this market is not trading on Technicals alone, it is now entering a phase of deep manipulation, with various parties timing news releases.

AND Fitch is now toying with Vatican by touching Italian debt. Perhaps some people harbour hopes of destabilising the Vatican Bank. AND the TEMPLARS and ILLUMINATI have to be unleashed against those who violate the order. We take on DEBT to serve GOD, and here comes some traders with the mark of SATAN spoiling the party.

In the next G20 meeting in November, it is time for all Nations to cut the Rating Agencies once and for all. They serve no purpose. They spun the last mortgage crisis and now instilling fear in the market. At least 1 of the Big 3 rating agencies have to go. In the name of GOD, let us rid of the LOCUST.

Despite the positive spun on the NFP on Friday, let us say:
"when JOB is gone, there is no more JOB."

So what is my decision ? In the name of TRINITY, may the TEMPLARS rise again and arrest all those traders with the mark of SATAN "666". Make known to the world with the sound of Thunder and the light of a FLASH.

On a side note, RBS is downgraded by Moody. Probably having found out that RBS VP for Credits in Asia was crusing town in a Bentley. Interesting thought, it is all about CREDITS.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

8 Oct China man

SPX may have peaked yesterday after market opens on positive NFP, sell on news.
It made a last minute plunge at market close.

Meanwhile, all eyes on China when they return from their 1 week national holiday. Crazy China Man. They actually drive an amoured truck to pick up Gold Bullions. And the ordinary China folks are picking up Numismatics Gold and Silver coin like crazy for gift and investment. It is a regret that the Anti-Gold cartel did not manage to sell Gold down to complete its 5th wave. So we await next week when China opens.

Meanwhile, a lot of scaremongery has come. Like the IMF Advisor says dire situation in next 2-3 weeks. And ECRI forecasting a recession. However we have professors writing in Journal of World Economics that Double Dip is not likely, need to differentiate between Economic Problem and Economic Recession. (Hmmm, coming from a Emeritus Professor in Singapore). QE3 is cited as a reason.

Meanwhile, the HK government called on all Funds and Brokers to discuss about Short Selling in the market. Mutual funds lending out customers shares to brokers with clients who want to short sell. Like FED renting out its GOLD to the ANTI-GOLD, or XXXXX renting its SILVER to short sell. (Silver ETF renting out Silver to sell !!!!!, then we must investigate at those ETF operators !!!)

ETF has now become a hideout for the Financial Mafia. Stay away from all LONG or SHORT ETF. We may have terminal events with ETF in the immediate future.

China launched its TIANGONG 1 satellite on the Thursday before. So it has its eyes on Washington and Pentagon now.

China government has also allocated monies to their largest national Social Insurance Fund to enter market at appropriate time. The China market largely dismissed that because of the relative small amount.

Also Wen JiaBao who went to Wenzhou to investigate the abscondment of the manufacturers bosses, was beaten to ease Credits to those private enterprises. And you know what those bosses would do, invest in houses, and gamble in Macau again.

ALL EYES on CHINA next week. China may be launching its stealth QE to offset the stronger YUAN.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

5 Oct Steve Jobs

Yes, Steve Job has passed away. And I am pretty sure he would join the ranks of Heavenly GOD and bring joy to them, with GPAD, GPHONE.

So probably when he was labouring as CEO launching IPAD, he knew his time was limited. Sometimes, some of the most ingenious things on Earth is done by people who are completing their journey.

As I was watching Occupy Wallstreet, you see NYPD surrounding the Raging Bull statue. Yes, it is almost sacred. So I urge all Financial Centers start to fence up their national statues and guard it. It is the soul of the Financial Wellbeing.

With the coming rally, think APPL would be faded, infact excellent opportunity for the Funds to lighten up on APPL. Because APPL is STEVE, and no STEVE no APPL.

It is because of Apple, Adam and Eve gave off the human descendants. With Apple gone, human return to dust is inevitable.

Now Tom Demark and his famous 13 is almost a Hero. 1075, the point of capitulation.
By the way, he mentioned GOLD to test 2000, a round number to mark the end of the parabolic high, and Silver...... (he was cut off by the TV host, sign of the fear of the establishment).

This Rally would only works, if all institutions exhaust their monies in propping up their shares. And Jamie Diamond, etc has come to this conclusion: they have to do their part now, or face the wrath of angry protestors. Jamie has to dig into his Piggybank and buy some shares. And when Jamie is buying, surely others would follow.

As Buffet has said in a conference this week. This is a Market of Stocks not of Stock Markets. There would be stocks that would rally hard, others would just meander.

So Tom is afraid that SPX would rally for a 3rd day into 1180 (thus giving a larger fall), while bloggers see 1150 has the watershed.

The answer is given to my subscribers.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

5 Oct short Euro 1.3370

short Euro 1.3370, neckline.
target 1.3100
stops 1.3400

4 Oct Everybody is looking for....



http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/04/october-the-scariest-month-for-stocks/

Halloween or a Retest.
Yes. like we are in 4 and waiting for 5. Or another lower level coming.

looking around, everybody is chuckling in the bank, or sipping coffee, tea, red wine. In Asia, one of the largest national bank of a emerging economy, reduces Deposit rate to 0.25% from 0.5%, reason: people holding onto cash, not buying properties, not buying shares. Credits drying up, bad loans sipping in.

What is there to Thank when Thanxgiving coming ? or monies to buy Christmas gift ?

Bernanke thinks that the Operation Twist is like cutting rate by 20 bp, and he also said he does not see a need for QE in the near term. Though buying long term bonds and selling short term bonds may not match exactly, there is no significant stimulus effect.

So what are we having ? A stealth 2.2 to 2.5, depends on how you read this.

China and US bickering again on Currency and arms sale to Taiwan. USD has its risks now, when China would be hastening its sale of Treasuries (while Bernanke is buying, perhaps that is the other reason for Operation Twist, to offset mask China sale).

Euro is not ideal yet, and that leaves Mr Wen JiaBao, Zhou XiaoChuan with .....

Whatever it is, with Vampires coming alive towards Halloween, we better get some Silver bullets. Hmm, still remember my Silver rub, hopes it helps.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

5 Oct Cramer

Cramer says he is not saying BYE or BUY. So why is he on TV then ? what job is he doing ?
Meanwhile SPX reached Capitulation zone 1075 has told by Tom DeMark, while Gold is on another leg down now at 1638.

At the Congressional hearing, Bernanke dropped a bomb, he said that China Yuan policy has hindered global recovery.

With Yuan at current level, China small and medium enterprises are already crumpling. Owners of companies in Wenzhou are absconding, bank employees cheating monies from depositors.

When China comes back from holiday next Monday, it is going to be interesting.

Think the whole world is in a mass.