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Friday, December 31, 2010

31 Dec Farewell 2010

Farewell 2010, it had been a good year for me. Same to most of you.
Sipping red wine now, taking note of:

Australi Queensland flooding, signs that the Indonesian plate is sinking. If it accelerates, soon Malaysia, Thailand would be feeling the floods, while coastal cities in Indonesia, like Jakarta would be underwater.

SPX hits 1262 and fell. While Silver made record high near 31. Would we see a repeat of 2 Jan 2010, when the stock market falls hard on first day of the year ?

We did not get the continuation rally in 2010 picking up from 2009, despite QE, QE2.

Themes for next year:
PIIGS, Italy next.
America municipal bonds,
China continued tightening to trigger the next down leg
Commodities,
Crude to hit 100
Foreign monies reptatriation, tax waiver.(USD is flooding America eventually)

and most important, Bernanke under siege in 2011.

And also Iran turn to stir. Would not rule out a North-South korea actions.

Monday, December 27, 2010

27 Dec George Washington, Carl Vinson, Reagen

All 3 aircraft carriers are in in Japan sea, in the vacinity of North Korea and China.
South Korea Li Min Bo has now made up his mind. He is harbouring thoughts of annexing North Korea with US assistance.

in next few days, the true intention of China and America would become apparent.

Drum beat, I hear.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

25 Dec the Unstoppable


just watched a DVD "Unstoppable" by Tony Scott. Impressive.
In the movie, 2 trains are the main characters: 777 and 1206.

Hence this gives a clue of what is going to transpire in SPX.

After it hits 1260 (next week), SPX is heading for 777, it could
be stopped at 1206, depending on (Denzel) Washinton and Will Colson (played by Chris Pine). Does Washington has the Will to stop the runaway train ?

The questions remains: the Will to do what ?

I know my call is counter-intuitive, when the data are getting better, malls are thronged with pple, I get more Christmas gift than last year, and now having a better paying job .

In my earlier postings, I have mentioned movies like in 2009, "Up" which foretells of the impressive rally.

Enjoy the show. In January, we have Robery Gates going to China on 9 January, and Hu JingTao going to America on 19 January as well. So we are going to see big volatlity coming. Probably, some of the Chinese diplomat is using this opportunity to stash away their monies in diplomatic suitcases. The summit would end in futility and set the stage for more hostilities in 2011. In Chinese astrology, the Seventh Star takes center stage, it is the stat of Robbers and Volatility.

Out of China, the Chinese government is targetting foreign investment in properties, foreign interest e.g. Morgan Stanley, Citibank, MacQuarie, JP Morgan has been named in articles. Probably Obama is asking the Chinese government to faciliate the repatriation of capital and profits. After which, this would give Obama a freehand to strike NKorea.

A OPEC meeting is going to be held next week, in the face of $93 oil. Iran is going to take over the chairmanship of OPEC in a few weeks time. And with Iran increased infludence in Iraq, the Crude prices is going to be volatile.

On this Xmas day, China announced a 25 bp hike. The market was expecting one on 11 Dec, it turned out to be increase in bank reserve. Now the 25bp hike would probably take the market by surprise.

The conventional wisdom is that hot monies would flow into countries who hike interest rate. But what if, the monies cannot get out ?

I do follow ex-Morgan Stanley Andy Xie who has forecasted this rate hike by year end, and the collapse of the China property market. Prices dropping by half. It does not matter what is the market housing prices, it is what the buyers paid, and the mortgages committed that matters.

Just came back from a house warming party, now everybody is so willing to spend after receiving their year end bonus. My relative bought a new fridge to house red wine. Later I am going to catch the movie TRON with my wife.

Thankyou, Bernanke.

H1N1 is resurfacing in UK, with more a higher case fatality ratio. actually it is quite rampant in US, but the reporting is not forthcoming.

Friday, December 24, 2010

24 Dec Merry Xmas

the 800billion tax relief would probably end up in paying off Credit Cards debt, and higher food and gas prices.
US is a consumption society. Hence the 800billion is just fuel to the imminent inflation cycle, hyperinflation for some countries.

Meredith has also defined one of the themes for 2011: the collapse of municipal bonds.

Crude is now slowly creeping up when nobody is watching. WTI just went passed 91 and targetting 92. As the consolidation period for Crude has been almost a year, this rise would take another year to rest, unlike the previous assault on 147 in 2008. Demand for heating oil is driving the demand. Let us see, if there would be a severe snow storm in China like in 2008.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

23 Dec 1260

On my posting 8 Dec, have said 1260 is about the target of this Xmas rally.
there are enough funds buying out there to share some pork to my subscribers. now the conventional wisdom is that the market would take a pause from here, meander and make a deeper correction.
Most goverments are targetting a slower pace of growth next year to moderate inflation concerns. However, for America, it cannot afford to slow down, as Obama is targeting the 2nd term. However would Bernanke let him have it ? as I had said all the while, Bernanke is Repbulican's Trojan Horse.
Would the secret coucil of the World allow another African black Muslim president ?

Thank you all my readers and subscribers, wish you all a merry Christmas, as usual, I would be sipping Shiraz in the moon.
Meanwhile, let see if any of big Earthquakes happen over the Xmas, like the Tokai, St.Andreas and Madrid fault.

我愿化为石桥,受五百年风吹,五百年日晒,只换你一次从桥走过

Monday, December 20, 2010

20 Dec Melodrama

North Korea said SKorea never fired in its direction, hence no retaliation. SKorea said it fired in the same direction as last time.

Essentially, it is never a win when your opponent is expecting it. So we shall wait for the next stealth move from North Korea.

So would expect the much awaited Xmas rally to bein in earnest, SPX to go between 1260 and 1290. Pivot trading is the way to go. Email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com if you wan to know how.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

19 Dec 2112

South Korean blame it on weather and delay any firing at YP island to 20 or 21 Dec. Reasonable, everybody wants a good rest on weekends, before a busy week. Or they need more time to tuck their officials into nice bunkers.

If I am a SKorean, I would take a trip out of the country for a week. NKorea used to fired a missle across Japan into the Pacific Ocean. Would not be surprised that Kim Jong Il fired another missle into the Japan sea.

Now, we have USS George Washington, Carl Vinson and Reagen around the Japan sea. Such a huge force is targeting China obviously.

Russia has called for UN Security Council meeting, to stall any possible attack by US on North Korean.

For the common Asia folks, it is just another charade by the politicians, people are paying scant notice, and carrying on their festive Xmas shopping.

Greenspan said US would achieve 3% growth next year.

Now picked up another doomsayer, John Titor, a self-proclaimed timetraveller.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

17 Dec Winter solstice 21 Dec

read a lot of dooms commentary, like Lunar Eclipse with Winter Solstice, Hinderberg signal, Hussman signal, etc.
now nobody buying, need to lure some forced buying.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

12 Dec Bernanke make amends to the Democrats

I read Buttonwood,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood

essentially Bernanke intention of QE is to fund fiscal expansion, tax cuts for the rich, spending programes for the congressman.

Bernanke effectively ended the FED.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

11 Dec James Steinberg

The deputy secretary of state James Steinberg would be travelling to Beijing next week, James is the official mentioned in a lot of those Wikileaks cables. Possibly he is to meet with those Pro-US Chinese officials. In quite a lot of Wikileaks cables, Chinese top officials is mentioned to sound conciliatory to Steinberg on other events.

Meanwhile China has sworn solidarity with North Korea. and North Korea has sworn using Nuclear weapons to retaliate. Possibly they would save the trouble and just lob it into Seoul, 40km away from the border.

Thank GOD, my wife and kid has completed their Japan tour.

Possibly now, Recon troops are infiltrating into North Korea setting up Ob post around their nuclear facilities.

Friday, December 10, 2010

10 Dec now what ?

used to be easy to be a stock investor, buy and enjoy the ride. however nowadays things are uncertain. everybody afraid of the next Flash Crash round the corner.

As my PhD conferment ceremony is next week, may be I would share to the public some good trading ideas/charts this weekend. If you want a personal mail, drop a comment.

Meanwhile, market is anticipating another China rate hike this weekend. as I am still bullish midterm, wait for the knee-jerk drop to load up.

Robert Gates is planning a visit to China to talk about talks. Hanky Paulson used to visit China and made the Chinese stick with their Treasuries purchases to its own detriment, while playing boy-gal relationship with then Chinese Deputy Premier Wu Yi.
US Mullen, Gates are buying time to build up a case for a wicked China, possibly with support from other nations before it attack North Korea.

What China needs to do now, is to deploy missles along the Yellow Sea, and possibly anti-aircraft battalion into North Korea. If North Korea falls, American troops would march right up to the Cloud Mountain right at Chinese border.

So China has to play real tough now, possibly ringfencing those US financial interests before they flee.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

9 Dec NK

http://blog.usni.org/2010/12/09/report-north-korea-developing-nuclear-sea-mines/

North Korea is developing/has developed nuclear torpedoes or underwater vessels. This reminds us last week news about North Korea brandishing its mini-nuclear submarine. The implication is immense, as a small nuclear underwater device can wipe out the entire flottilla of pacific command. Or it can sail into Busan port secretly.

Think US must put a stop to this North Korean nonsense and bomb N Korea flat and then advance the South Korean troops northward. Guess that is why Meyers is in the Seoul for.

China would be accused of not stopping the war, it has the blame squarely in its pants.

Round 1: America has won.

By the way, as the CNBC anchor has said, the market is not tradig on fundamentals. It is more like trading on the maximum pain.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

8 Dec Assange



Assange like me, Aragon, has vision of what is coming. Support for Wikileaks is strengthening. Common folks around the world are now waking up to the fact that they have been misled by their governments. Civil unrest would gather pace.
Businesses like Visa, Mastercard, Amazons, which withdrew their services from Wikileaks would face growing retaliations among Consumers.

It is essentially a battle betweeh the HAVE and "HAVE NOT" in the society.

What I look forward to is the leaks on UFOs and Doomsday.

Meanwhile, US is preparing for war. The Joint Chiefs are now in Seoul. The burden to diffuse the situation is now resting with China.

If China backs down and condemns NKorea, only then SKorea and US would hold back their massive air bombardment on NKorea and its nuclear facilities. Sort of a warning to Iran.

Would expect SPX to rise towards 1260 after this round of correction, taking advantage of weak volume during the Xmas.

My readers have been told where to take profit for the SPX, Gold, silver, as an example my trendline projection of Silver to 30.50. Silver went to 30.688 as its highest this decade. Though my Gold projection is more ambitious at 1455.

However beware, if there is any new military actions or secrets divulged. The Sky is the limit for Commodities.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

4 Dec Weekend again

Another lazy weekend, family members has gone to Japan, during the US-Japan War Games in the Southern sea of Japan.

New York Times wrote an article on Gold, talking about Gold standards. China commitee members on monetary talked about China importing more Gold to assist switch to international RMB currency, also suggest US to sell its Gold to relief its debt.

So the stage is set, for the Gold climax, it is still in its early stages of a prabolic rise. Soros has said, Gold is the ultimate bubble.

The Korea-Japan-America trinity has silenced China. China is keeping silent. The errie silence means something is going to happen.

Now Europe is in its most severe Winter in a century, possibly it would last for a couple more months, seeing a mini-ice age of sort. Air travel, trains, would come to a standstill. Less movements across Europe. Probably China would join in its next severe snow storm since the last one in 2007.

There is increasing chatter for a big Earthquake of sort from 17 Dec (end of magnetic trimester) to 21 Dec (the full moon).

Meanwhile expect, SPX, Crude, all commodities to rally once more, SPX to vacinity of 1300 for the Xmas cheers.

Merry Xmas to all my followers.