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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

30 June 1040 magic figure that divides Heaven and Hell

Now 1040 is mentioned everywhere in commentaries, TV media, etc.
Obamam has met Bernanke, Geithner, and acknowledge the culprit for the market weakness is EUROPE.

Like he met Medvedev for Burger in California, and then detains 11 of Russians agents the next week.

Like he questions Japanese ex-Prime Minister Hatoyama if he can be trusted, and then the poor Jap lost his job.

Now the FINREG is totally useless. Another crisis cannot be prevented.

Even if 1040 is broken, which the S&P futures have already done so. 1018 shold provide support.

all the world is waiting for, is another Jerome Kerviel to short another 50billion of DAX futures. Absense of such hero, who dare to put against Bernanke, we would just resign to a dull summer, wavering 1040 to 1120.

ALEX is moving North in the Gulf, when day breaks in GoM, we would know if ALEX is paying Deepwater horizon a visit.

with me holding USO and UNG, I am gunning for ALEX, another Katrina. Vitoil, I urge you to strutt your stuff.

Monday, June 28, 2010

28 June Hurricane watch

Well, the most exciting thing over the weekend, is to watch Alexis clear the Yucantan landmass, and now over Mexican waters, very much intact.

If Alexis veer towards North and NorthEast, it would hit straight for Deepwater Horizon and BP share prices.

I think we start a game, from now till November when the Hurricane season ends, with every Hurricane passes by, and a one that passes over Deepwater Horizon, we drop BP share prices by 13%, bounce up when the Hurricane passes, and see where it converges.

Meanwhile, here in Asia, things are hunkie doorie. It is a market for day traders, bit by bit.

If we hold 1040, then we should see 1300 this time, before a W.

Meanwhile, the RISKs:

(a) A US Aircraft carrier battlegroup is now heading for the Iran waters, chatter about Israeli in Azerbaijan with planes.

(b) Another aircraft carrier in the Yellow Sea off Beijing and North Korea. Beijing still has not chided North Korea for the sinking of Cheonan.

(c) Congress ready to launch attack on China currency policies.

(d) North Korea Kim now planning to handle leadership to his 25 year old son in the coming party Congress. This would instigate his opponents to stage a coup.

US oil ETF, USO made a ramp up on Friday closing.

Personally, I am waiting to sell my USO and UNG.

Meanwhile the Bears are waiting for a Sinkhole below 1040, the bulls are greedy in fear. My guess ?
Market would meander between 1040 and 1120 till either Bernanke annouces another 1 Trillion of purchases OR Bernanke is fixed. How ? your guess is as good as mine.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

26 June Hurricane Watch and Steve Jobs

Ok, over the weekend, a hurricane is forming over GoM, another one coming the way and reaching GoM next Wednesday.

I was in a lift going for lunch, and in came 2 BP employees, chuckling away, saying like "it is just a spill".

BP is now contemplating selling its Latin American assets, when it is still in a bargaining positions. With the Hurricane season over GoM lasting till November, and an active season is predicted because of the warmer Gulf water, it is a matter of time when the crude get splashed into Florida, Lousianna, and infiltrate into the water table, and then no food edible, or water drinkable. We would have mass exodus from the Gulf, not to mention one may become like Katrina if not stronger. Then every state governors, mayors, household would run to the BP $2 billion fund (soon to increase to $200 billion).

Not to mention with a possible Methane gas explosion hanging in the air, triggering tsuanmis and fire balls.

BP is history now, with the Sovereign Wealth Funds still holding onto a major share. Obama would use this opportunity to seize BP assets in America, (much like what Chavez did to Exxon, etc in Venuezuela), to raise his popularity, something like Robin Hood, rob the Rich, save the Poor.

As for G20 Summit, a lot of distractions coming out, like countries not agreeing on Austerity measures, Obama want growth, Bernanke ready to unlease another Trillion dollar of buying.

Investors are lethargic now, most cashing out of their mutual funds. It is a matter of time when the general public realises that the market is hollow.

Having said this, because market is hollow, Fed traders would find it relatively easier to defend the market at 200 days moving average. The world need another Jerome Kerviel, who shorted 50 billion stock futures on that fateful Monday.

Meanwhile, Chinese scientish explain the rampant Sink Holes as geological phenenomenen, wherby underground water gets drain away,and constant rain causing erosions. But why now ? and on a global basis.

We are seeing evidence of Poleshift coming.

Blankfein has been relatively quiet lately, what is he upto ? scheming the next CDS to bring BP to his knees ? in collusion with George Soros to bankrupt the ECB ? or rewarding Barney the Dinos with georgeous man or Dodd with his next job.

ExxonMobil

According to Reuters:
"U.S. District Court Judge Martin Feldman, who blocked the Obama administration's six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling, on Tuesday sold his holdings in Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), worth $15,000 or less, just four hours before he issued his ruling, according to information in a financial disclosure form released on Friday."

What does Exxon got to do with BP ? Market would tell.

Meanwhile the Republican better conjure a plan to spike the oil prices to save the industry. With Dick Cheney going to hospital, it is tough to organise some actions.

Technically speaking, Crude is now back onto its uptrend line, ready to test 80, 87, then 90, and when 90 is broken, it is 120.

When would that happen ? probably when the hurricane splash tar balls onto every gulf residents window panes. The GoM gusher is depelting the world reserve. The entire seafloor underneath Deep Horizon is now gushing crude.

With the Finreg bill settled, Blankfein, Dimon and the hedgies can now position for the next move. The World Cup is finishing in 2 weeks time. Now, traders on your mark, get set. A rally of all sorts is coming, equities S&P, Crude, Gold, Euro, Treasuries yeild, you name it you have it.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/mobile/06/25/iphone.problems.response/index.html?fbid=ci0Jt_v12UC

Iphone holders become the suckers for Steve Jobs. Iphoners become the phone attenane and in the course of doing so, induce cancers.

Friday, June 25, 2010

25 June Methane

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKRnJ5WW0CM

Watch this congressional hearing on Federal Reserve General Counsel, grilled by Alan Grayson.

General McChrystal to run for senatorship !!!!.

Now news of Methane leaking under the Gulf circulating, everybody watching the newsclip on Methane explosion triggering Tsunamis. Some Hedge Funds sure want BP dead.

I guess we would wait a week for the University of Texas professor to complete his analysis of the data, and define how many barrels have been spilled into the Gulf.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

23 June Support your General

General MacCrystal should never apologise to Obama. the Administration is utterly useless when it comes to Afghanistan. MacCrystal is right that he regreted voting for Obama, infact the entire armed forces should vote off the Democrats in the coming midterm.

The White house staffers are now leaving Obama, Orzag, Emmanuel. Literally taking profit on their "rob the taxpayer, pay the bankers" support.

Market should be grinding higher. Now the Big Fish is trying to push technologies as the saviours of the market. Where is Steve Jobs ? living on the dead sweat job workers in China.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

22 June Pre-FOMC



Some of my non-paying fans has asked me to share on Forex. So I would start to share some charts.

As you can see EURUSD has a very nice ladder climb, since the low on the 7 June. We do see a lot of instruments making a turnaround on 7 June. Hence the tide has turned for Euro, and now on its reverse course (a correction or new bull ?).
and this ladder climb has stopped on the 20 June, from 1.1876 to 1.2468. Quite a lot of pips for my followers.

It should retrace to 1.2200 (tip of the Ichimoku Cloud) after FOMC and begins another rally into 1.2800, probably after the G20 meeting.

China would let its Yuan trade higher by the day after G20, bit by bit, no big deal.

Implication: Higher Yuan means China would take the lead, while other currencies fall back, including USD. Which would fall more ? USD or JPY or EUR ?

Euro has finished its turn, so it is now up to USD or JPY to compete for devaluation. For Obama chances at mid-term, think USD would take the lead in falling.

With a cheaper USD, Equities would rise. Hence expect S&P would retake 1300, while Euro climbs back into 1.3300. Crude, commodities, would all rally for a final hooray.

Crude may retake 100, establish 80-100 as the new range. In view of what happened to BP, Oil executives would disagree with Cheap Oil. Oil companies would push of higher Crude prices to pay for higher operating cost and lesser drillings.

China has started stockpiling iron ore, metals to make its aircraft carrier fleet. Expect commodities prices to be firmer. With the rising wages in China, triggered by the Foxconn events, China would be awashed in a wave of rising wage hike from labourers, janitors to office workers and executives. I.e. people are more able to buy Cars, Gold, Jewelleries. China is getting affluent, while its manufacturing has past its peak.

We would see a summer rally in all instruments for a final song. Think Obama would be staring at a plunging market when November comes.

The first sign of a Mexico Gulf hurricane is appearing. Going by theory of alternate, we would see a major Hurricane this year, the size of Katrina if not more.
You would be tar blobs hurling into everybody's home. Guess what, every Gulf residents would lay a claim on BP after the hurricane.
BP would goto Nought together with its Financiers.

It is time to log on to the EURJPY carry trade again, now at 111 for possible 140 retrest. It is still early, before the trade gets crowded.

I am bullish as the market out there is not terrific, data are mixed, investors are cautious. Time for annother party, a special one with lesser people.
and my wife is clamouring for her GUCCI bag again.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

20 June Summer Fotbol rally


In tiny volume, S&P would wind its way back towards 1200. Euro would have a nice bounce. People would be surprised when Euro goes back to 1.3300. Gold would take the ride as well.

It is bersek, as in when nobody is trading, the robots trade for you, and you take the profit from the robots. This stage of rally is for the bold and greedy.

Now worldwide Pension Funds are losing, people are getting angry.

China having Flashfloods nation wide, Beijing in the North, Guangzhou is the South. Meanwhile Sink Holes popping up everywhere in China.
Let us see if one sink hole pop up in Shanghai next to one of their 100 storeys skyscrappers.

China is going to weaken its currency coming week, and i.e. USD would depreciate, and Stocks would rally on a weaker USD. Commodities would stage a comeback and Crude would rise.

That would be the trade in July, till Summer ends.

Monday, June 14, 2010

14 June let the riots begin. BP going to nought.

Kyrgystan problem originate from the high inflation pressure in the country, high food prices, that led to the revolt, and now violence, mob, rioting, a stage of anarchy. It has now morphed into raclia riots.
Now thousands Uzbeks are fleeing into Uzbekistan, `

Hence, you see the historical extended ZERO interest rate policy has sowed the seeds of unrest in those poorer countries. With the low interest rate, Benny started the Inflation evil, now then he strengthened the USD to accelerate and export inflation into other countries.

Now with higher wages pressure in China, China has no room for higher currency. Otherwise, it would accelerate the exodus of manufacturers out of China. The peak of China has come. Hence China is on a collision course with the US Congress. To garner votes in their constituencies, Congressman and Senators would be stumping over one another proposing shocking, baby-kissing measures, like tariffs on all sort of imports, and labelling China as a Currency Manipulator.


BP is now on the hook for paying for all sorts of Gulf spill related damages. Imagine when the Hurricane comes, and flush the crude inland, any moms and pops would goto BP to claim damages on homes, food poisoning, skin rashes. And Obama wants to setup a esckrow account from BP to pay for damages? why ? because BP share prices would goto nought very soon when summer is about to be over.

Lesson ? it never pays to be friends with the Obama, the Chinese and British learn it the hard way. While Israel has learnt fast, and has been behaving like a house dog unleashed, like the Mozad assasination of Hamas in Dubai, raiding aid ships to Gaza. Soon flying into Teheran. (interesting that Saudi has come out today to deny allegations of granting Israel flight path).

When Iran goes nuclear, the Shiites would have greater influence, greatly undermining the legtitimacy of the Saudi rulers.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

13 June the drums begin

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=130086§ionid=351020205,
Saudi is granting airspace access to Israel.

Now Israel is preparing for air-strike. Soon in coming weeks, Iran would announce it has surpassed enrichment upto 20%, towards weapon ready plutonium.

Meanwhile, Admadinejjad is all smiles while visiting China after all the UN sanction, and Russia annouces it would halt S300 missles delivery.

Without S300 missles, Iran would be defenseless against Israeli air strike.

Obama tries to drum up hatred against BP and the British, trying to deflect against his government for lack of control. World multinationals are definitely wary of US government. What if a China enterprises slip in US and had to be the scape goat ?

Let us see when would the oil blobs get caught up in the Atlantic Gulf stream, and get carried into the English Channel. Worse if a hurricane comes along (which would definitely comes a big one, as law of alternate holds. There were no major ones last 2 years), the crude would be sent into the home of everybody backyard.

Worse, what if the Crude is not just crude, but something more toxic from 30,000 feet down under ?

Meanwhile copycats strikes in China factories erupted with workers demanding higher wages. China media are asked to downplay the broadcast, and some economists emerge to say such trend is good for the nations.

I mean Foxconn increases wages from 900 RMB/a month to 2000 RMB a month, and its holding company share prices slump. Long term it is good for the China, because workers can afford more, but short term, it is bad for the low end manufacturers.and that means higher export prices, factories moving to India, Vietnam,etc. Young Chinese workers felt hopeless repeating the same tasks 10 hours a day, and still not being able to afford a house back home, resort to suicide so that their parents can get handsome compensation.

Under communist rule, the corrupt reap the riches off its citizens, destroying the future of the country.

China would revert to its high inflation level in the year 2007. There would be a race in all countries to raise prices on all products, commodities. Hence those 42 inch LCD TVs has about hit rock bottom price level, and would rise in near future.

In America, consumers are more confident saving (reflected in the higher Consumer Confidence), while retails sales slumps. With higher import prices in coming months, we should see retail sales hit south in the US.

Not to mention, that the Congress is going to take action against China disregard of the Treasury. (probably Geithner would let this go through, as he wants his revenge when he was laughed at when speaking to the Beijing University).

So it is payback time. (for those in the know, they have taken their monies off the tables). For those not in the know, it may seem puzzling at times.

The 5th day of the 5th Lunar Month in the Chinese calender (16th June) marks the start of the bad summer period, with evil influences rearing its head.

In 2011, we would see world with slow economic growth and high inflation. Interest rate would increase, Bernanke would increase interest rate after the Nov mid-term election. Equities would stagnate between 900 and 1100, monies have gone to repay debt. Gold wold rise to 1500, Crude to march to 100.

By then world population would enter into greying, with more older people and lesser younger people to work.

This is the steady picture. With a major earthquake in a major metro city, or the collapse of Euro, collapse of Japan, this would send shock waves and greatly alter the scenario.

Sink Holes in China 6 May 2010

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201005/20100506/article_436144.htm#ixzz0n7P9UKwP

If Sink Holes start appearing in Shanghai, right next to the skyscrapeers, it is going to be interesting.

Some of you asked, the drum beat to what ?
well, the Drum Beat to the coming Pole Shift.

if you want to lose sleep, google on Zeta Talk .

Saturday, June 5, 2010

5 June Japan is still a war losing nation

http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2010/06/20106412441952152.html

tells you how Japan Hatoyama who yielded to Obama lost his job. China Hu Jin Tao, Israel Netanyahu who constrain Obama stay alive.

Morale of story: you yeild to the Devil, you goto Hell.

More seriously, Hatoyama failure to move the American airbase just basically announces to the whole world that Japan is still a nation who lost a war. And its neighbouring countries would begin to treat it as such.

(you cannot put an entire blame on Hatoyama though, when I was in Los Angeles bar, Japanese girls like Niggers, Japs dolls hangs out at discos eyeing the Niggers)

This causes a dent on the Japanese psyche, who once dominate in technology. With the Toyota fiasco, Japan has lost its stature.

So while China has peaked (China just manadated minimum wage across the nation today, watch inflation), Japan has started on its slippery slope of decline. This leaves Korea an uncertainty. Korean Lee has begun some stern warnings to the North today, and North has vowed violent retaliations if the episode is referred to UN.

I believe Pentagon would push for it to goto UN as a case of North Korea breaking the armistice. I would not be surprised if Kim despatches a battalion south of the DMZ and make a raid to test water. (then we can see how much of short interest at 1230-1250 level).

Iran has been awfully quiet. Of course, preparing enrichment of plutonium in some labs running 24x7. And assembling long range missles capable of carrying a payload to Tel Aviv.

Burma is still on track to build its nuclear reactor possibly with China technology now, instead of North Korean technology. While Singapore is researching on a underwater bunker type nuclear reactor just about 30 kms away from Las Vegas Sands casino in Singapore. When you hit the jackpot, you get a trip to visit a underwater nuclear reactor.

Time that the Americans wake up. Under Obama's watch, oil companies continue their legacy under Cheney care. wait till the tar washes up Florida beaches, and then catch the Atlantic currents and end up in the English Channel. Only a nuclear bomb would collapse the leak. Meanwhile it is a long wait till August.

So catch the World Cup that is coming up in South Africa. Take your hard earned monies and fly down to South Africa for a couple of months. Those High Frequency Traders deserve a good rub down.

Meanwhile, shorting Euro seems to be a rookies favourite trade, especially those with holding power.

Now people calling the panic over H1N1 a scam, accusing pharmaceutical companies profiting from causing public panic.

I believe (again I believe as the song says) H1N1 and H5N1 has combined somewhere out there in some God forsaken farm: a deadly virus that spreads efficiently and fast.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

3 June hell gate is now open



It seems so unreal. this is a picture of the Sink Hole in Guatemala, 100 feet deep, 66 feet across.

But the fact is HELL GATE is now open. Beneath the surface, it is just hot air and space.
Lots of American southern parts are plagued by potential sink holes. Human have drilled oil out of the crust. With lots of floods, the soil is soft.

What is happening to the Large Hydron Collider ? who is supposed to create Black Hole. seems like the black hold is already there and it has engulfed the entire Europe.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

2 June The next wave AND Steve Jobs Sweat Shops Dead Jobs

Today news is the resignation of Hotayama the Japan Prime Minister. He failed when he gave in to Obama pressure and let American soldiers stay in Okinawa. Thus breaking his campaign vow.

Apple Iphone sweat shop is now exposed. The sweat shop operator Foxconn (Foxy indeed, with a philandering womanising Chairman) announced today to raise workers wages by 30%. Shame on Steve Jobs, his medical bills paid by dozen of dead Chinese young.

We are going to see a wave of labour strife in China when every workers demand higher wages. China is no longer cheap. High labour cost, high properties prices, CHINA has peaked. Workers want higher wages, farmers want more monies for their vegies, restaurants charge higher, hotel charge higher. It is rampant inflation in China with their frequent floods, earthquakes, droughts, etc.

AIA deal has fallen through. At least Singapore government backed Prudential is now more savvy.

Meanwhile quite a number of popular shows in China, HK stage storylines that Chinese KungFu masterfight against Western wrestlers and win. The next wave would be anger, indignation at westerners sweeping across China, Japan, Korea.

Crude is going to rocket from this level at 70 forming a base for 90 and beyond. Commodities prices would rise while China starts building its fleet of Aircraft carriers.

Israel raised indignation when it raided some Turkish humanitarian ships sailing to Gazas, it might as well have bombed Iran and get the same outrage.

Soon the world would see what Bernanke has done to the world with his extended period of ZERO Interest rate. He has literally let the devil out of hell and wrecked havoc on other economies.

If governments are wiser, they would switch out of USD now and end USD reserve status.

Went and saw the Crude chart, it is forming a substantial base at 70 level for last couple of months, the breakup would be powerful. 100 is without doubt in sight.

We are also going to see a swift collapse of the YEN. Reason: huge deficit, the focus would turn from Europe to Japan, in the coming months before the next Japan election.

After Japan, it would be US and then the developing economies, Asian countries including China.

If I am Steve Jobs, I would quit the board and retire in the Aspen.