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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

24 May Oil

just read that in order to stop the leak, a nuclear bomb may be needed. So far, BP plans to drill another pipe down to stop the leak, earliest by August 2010.
By then a lot of oil would have been depleted. Rendering the earth crust soft.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

23 May Nine Dragons 九龙狮子山





It was once said that in ancient times, there were 9 dragons creating menance in the part of land south of China, at the tip of what is now Kowloon Hong Kong. The Heavenly King sent a Lion to tame the 9 dragons. And it becomes what the Hong Kongers affectionately called th Lion Mountain, the mountain range which now embraces the northern part of Hong Kong. It overlooks the coastal part of North Hong Kong, with Hong Kong island perching in the south.

and on 8 May, I went up to the Lion Mountain, the din from the city was clearly heard, and the mountain top was shrouded in mist (smog). I decided to free the 9 dragons back to their heavenly home.`

Come on thousand years is long enough punishment. Moroever the smog, the din is terrible.

The Lion Mountain at 400 metres is definitely not any Mount Everest, or even Mount Blanc, but it overlooks 100 Billions of wealth in Hong Kong.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

22 May next week rally

Seems very bearish news out there, with people talking about wave 3 of the down move coming. That means market has probably bottomed with Friday last hour moves higher.

This make good swing trading. should be some pull back to load up again for a rally coming. topping out next Friday.

Even if Roubini is right, we are still in early stages of a bear move, because data flows are generally still positive. Asian countries made sterling GDP in 1st Qtr. I still remember my neighbour, a industrial sales guy, who told he made the entire sales commitment within 1st Qtr back then in 2008.

We would expect winding sideways move of sort in coming months, when market digest those negative Euro news. Euro probably would make it to break 1.2000 as a good target for traders.

Incidentally Angela Merkel despite the war mongering speech, likes a weak Euro to boost exports. It is evident that Asian resellers of BMWs, Porsche and Mercedes are more aggressive with their sales with lower cost.

Hence would expect the Euro thingy to hang around for months, if not years. Short Euro with bias to the downside, whenever a rally takes place.

With Europe shrinking its imports, China would suffer, and hence not likely to strengthen its currency any time soon.

As I said in earlier posts, China has reached its peak interms of GDP growth. It cannot afford to pump monies into land or properties for fear of public rife.

Look at Foxcon, a Taiwanese manufacturer in China, operating on a tiny tweeny margin, its China workers are literally sweat labourers, and 12 workers have commited suicide in its China factory.

You know what my favourite 42 inch LCD TV is now retailed at half the price since I bought it end of last year.

The world industries is literaly surviving to create employment. And if there is any revenue growth, it is basically accruals. US companies like to make Accruals at quarter end to make the revenue target, and then to reverse it next month.

Bubble talk, the henchman of HK tycoon Li Kah Shing months ago talked of Champagne bubbles, bubbles come every now and then like the Champagne. You know what, my little girl, as some followers have said she is a "Depression Era Baby". She started blowing bubble at 20 months old.

I am expecting Bernanke to make some Bubble talk coming week, possibly reason for Friday last hour rally. Then the robot trading programs would be turned on again.

Thailand riots have subsided. Expecting the war has gone into the villages, soon their would be military coups, etc.

The tectonic plates have been awfully quiet. Nonehtless the full moon coming on 28 May. H1N1 has gone in a whimper.....

Next week highlight would be South Korea reaction to its sunken ship by North Koreans China made torpedoes. And also Iran reaction to UN toothless sanction.

Well, much ado about nothing. That is what the market is about.

Friday, May 21, 2010

21 May 2010 China peak and the Third World War

Things really take a change over this missing days. Was travelling in Hong Kong, Taipei and Shanghai.

In this Asian cities, things seem to be booming. Governments trying to rein the high property prices before public anger morph into protest. Ordinary citizens mocking the ridiculous prices, while upper middle class stampede in to spend their savings buying up properties.

In a deleveraging cycle, it spares nobody, it needs to mop up the extra savings of people.

For the Chinese provincial government, they thrive on land sales, while production related taxes have stagnated. I.e. the production capacity of China has reached its peak, and now its other means of generating GDP has peaked as well.

I look at the stretch of land from the Airport to the City, most parcels of land has been developed, unlike 5 years ago, they were all vacant plot.

Essentially as the Peak Oil theories go, China has peaked. Further prodding would lead to social consequences. With the opening of the World Expo, it marks the end of the beginning for China, while it would join the ranks of other nations in up and down economic cycles.

With the great uncertainty of the change of leadership in the coming 18th Party Congress in 2012, 2010 would mark the beginning of internal power struggle, where the dark side of communism would be unveiled.

In essence, while ex Hong Kong monetary authority executive Mr Yam chanted about the rise of RMB as the third leg of the world monetary system (with USD, Euro as the first and second leg). It marks the peak of the Chinese Yuan. With China more inward looking, Yuan would be of lesser demand overseas.

Geithner and frends are looking for a one-off adjustment to take profit, which would not be granted by the Chinese.

Euro problem is actually the world problem, i.e. the problem of all nations, who jig their printing machines.

Noteworthy, my IT friend in Singapore mentioned that most big IT projects are from the government. Government is pumping monies into the economies trying to generate activities.

The Currency War has just been unveiled.

While South Korea has been quiet to keep the truth of the attack by North Korean submarines away from the public. US helpless against the Iranian effort to disguise its nuclear ambition with an arrangement with Brazil, Turkey. Israeli interest at stake. With Iran moving towards its nuclear weaponisation in 2011, Middle-east countries, like Saudi, UAE, Qatar, would find willing sellers of nuclear weapons.

The timidness of nations in the face of aggression only encourages war. Interestingly, the torpedo that North Korea fired was made in China. After the torpedo shooting, Kim Jong Ill actually visited China. Or was it China who torpedoed the South Korean ship ?

If I am Blankfein, I would resign and start building my Noah Ark, either a hideout in Antartic or a civilian space ship.

With the anniversary of the World War 2, it marks the beginning of the retirement of the baby boomers. Develop nations are aging, while younger people are shouldering more debt.

Now you can see the Beast from the middle of the Ocean as the Anti-Christ with Bernanke as Lucifer deciple. With the zero interest policy over an extended period, it has encourage nations, businesses, families, individuals to go into great debt, thus triggering a greater demise. Examples would be Krygistan, Greece and now Thailand. Soon more nations would join the ranks, riots running amock.

The oil blob underneath the Mexico Gulf would soon join the Atlantic currents. Deep sea fishes would gobble down the tar literally, and poison the food chain hence forth. I would have thoughts about eating fish in a few months time.

Back to the story of the HK developer making bubble talk, about Champaigne bubbles. How do HK developers sell properties ? they make their launch in the middle of the night. They employ fake people making deals. They paste leaflets showing record prices. The world has gone into deceit, thanx to Bernanke.

Watch out for the Equities, Bernanke may just speak to halt the slide. Talk is cheap, rather than employing robot programmes trading ceaselessly.

The plunge on 6 May shows that in the absense of robot programmes, because of a loose connections, there are virtually no more buyers.

While in Hong Kong, I saw a local Chinese newspaper running article about Obama having affairs with an ex-aide while on tour. And now with the White House intentional coverup of the gigantic oil blob underwater, people living by the marshlands are getting angry.