S&P index

Commodity Futures Charts

Saturday, March 6, 2010

6 Mar Anniversary

Again, March is a strong month. Today, we are 1 year away from the March 6 low at 666. I have little doubt that the SPX would cross 1150 towards 1200. However it is a trading market, close your position within the day. Go long on dips, at around 11am. Then take profit at 3pm. Repeat the cycle again. The pumper is back in with their routines. Larry Summer tried to game the market, and he spoke of blizzards stopping hiring, and then the market rallies. The volume is not as great as it used to be. It needs some help from short sellers. Next time, you hear Pretcher, or somebody talking Christopher Columbus, you know what they are up to. The Squid has GOD work to perform, but we just need the scalp monies. Monday would be a pullback day after perhaps a opening surge. Then the rest of the week would be a climb. Nonetheless, the inflation trade is back in. Noise of terrorist attacks on the oil route in South East Asia is definitely going to ramp Crude into 100. More hiring, more crude. We should see one last horray in March.

Angela Merkel chews no bones, she threatens to screw the hedge funds, and now the hedge funds are fleeing from their short Euro trades. The Hedge Funds wanted Big Monies, to the extent of bankrupting ECB. Greece GDP is just a fraction of Eurozone. Iceland was worse and yet it still stands. you see day after day zerohedge harping on Greece, you know the hedgies are in it big time. Of course there are the slow hedgies (man by 60 year old guy) and the quickie who would have fleed the trade by now. Get ready to buy the dip on Monday, and the short dollar trade.

Expect to see a substantial Euro shorting covering next week along with Crude/Gold/Commodities next week, on the theme that Labor i stabilising (I suspect Obama used his census employment to rig the NFP).

The Singapore government SWF again realised its loss on the UBS, convertings its warrants into Shares. loss in the region of 3 billion USD. Deleveraging, billions of national savings down the drain. As a result, the economic budget announced this week was not impressive, short of impetus, more of residential property speculation. In recent years, Chinese from China has slowly creeped into the society a permanent residence. The gals marry into Singapore, and then brings along the uncles, aunties, who then setup small business, and then drag along more China Chinese. Even the top students are from China. The Singapore government was having the dream of 6 million population on a small tiny islands, so as to boost GDP (where the Ministers salaries are pegged). It raised demand for residential homes. People piling into properties after losing faith in financial investments (people suddenly realised the Banks are feeding on them). Lots of monies sloshing around in the society. And the government is trying to suck up the monies through a more rapid land sale.

Lots of uncertainty, but it is a trading year for sure.

Monday, March 1, 2010

2 March What Mr Market is planning ?

after the Chilean Earthquake, the Copper mines have to halt, and then a massive short covering in Copper takes place. After that, they quickly release news that the Copper mine resumes operation.

Today analyst comes out to TV and says the drop going to resume, blah, blah,...

Hence Mr Market is positioned for a short trade for Commodities. Guess that is why lots of news on Greece, noises. However market participation by retail is thin. Bloomberg even ran it radio programs on TV.

As Yamada says, it is dumping and pumping on a daily basis. One day pump, another day dump. Who is dumping ? who is pumping ?

Mergers and Acquisition become in vogue, like to Private Equitie craze in 2007.

I buy bcos I cannot grow further, I sell bcos I cannot grow further.

Charle Dickens Tales of 2 Cities, Time is Good, Time is Bad.