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Friday, December 31, 2010

31 Dec Farewell 2010

Farewell 2010, it had been a good year for me. Same to most of you.
Sipping red wine now, taking note of:

Australi Queensland flooding, signs that the Indonesian plate is sinking. If it accelerates, soon Malaysia, Thailand would be feeling the floods, while coastal cities in Indonesia, like Jakarta would be underwater.

SPX hits 1262 and fell. While Silver made record high near 31. Would we see a repeat of 2 Jan 2010, when the stock market falls hard on first day of the year ?

We did not get the continuation rally in 2010 picking up from 2009, despite QE, QE2.

Themes for next year:
PIIGS, Italy next.
America municipal bonds,
China continued tightening to trigger the next down leg
Crude to hit 100
Foreign monies reptatriation, tax waiver.(USD is flooding America eventually)

and most important, Bernanke under siege in 2011.

And also Iran turn to stir. Would not rule out a North-South korea actions.

Monday, December 27, 2010

27 Dec George Washington, Carl Vinson, Reagen

All 3 aircraft carriers are in in Japan sea, in the vacinity of North Korea and China.
South Korea Li Min Bo has now made up his mind. He is harbouring thoughts of annexing North Korea with US assistance.

in next few days, the true intention of China and America would become apparent.

Drum beat, I hear.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

25 Dec the Unstoppable

just watched a DVD "Unstoppable" by Tony Scott. Impressive.
In the movie, 2 trains are the main characters: 777 and 1206.

Hence this gives a clue of what is going to transpire in SPX.

After it hits 1260 (next week), SPX is heading for 777, it could
be stopped at 1206, depending on (Denzel) Washinton and Will Colson (played by Chris Pine). Does Washington has the Will to stop the runaway train ?

The questions remains: the Will to do what ?

I know my call is counter-intuitive, when the data are getting better, malls are thronged with pple, I get more Christmas gift than last year, and now having a better paying job .

In my earlier postings, I have mentioned movies like in 2009, "Up" which foretells of the impressive rally.

Enjoy the show. In January, we have Robery Gates going to China on 9 January, and Hu JingTao going to America on 19 January as well. So we are going to see big volatlity coming. Probably, some of the Chinese diplomat is using this opportunity to stash away their monies in diplomatic suitcases. The summit would end in futility and set the stage for more hostilities in 2011. In Chinese astrology, the Seventh Star takes center stage, it is the stat of Robbers and Volatility.

Out of China, the Chinese government is targetting foreign investment in properties, foreign interest e.g. Morgan Stanley, Citibank, MacQuarie, JP Morgan has been named in articles. Probably Obama is asking the Chinese government to faciliate the repatriation of capital and profits. After which, this would give Obama a freehand to strike NKorea.

A OPEC meeting is going to be held next week, in the face of $93 oil. Iran is going to take over the chairmanship of OPEC in a few weeks time. And with Iran increased infludence in Iraq, the Crude prices is going to be volatile.

On this Xmas day, China announced a 25 bp hike. The market was expecting one on 11 Dec, it turned out to be increase in bank reserve. Now the 25bp hike would probably take the market by surprise.

The conventional wisdom is that hot monies would flow into countries who hike interest rate. But what if, the monies cannot get out ?

I do follow ex-Morgan Stanley Andy Xie who has forecasted this rate hike by year end, and the collapse of the China property market. Prices dropping by half. It does not matter what is the market housing prices, it is what the buyers paid, and the mortgages committed that matters.

Just came back from a house warming party, now everybody is so willing to spend after receiving their year end bonus. My relative bought a new fridge to house red wine. Later I am going to catch the movie TRON with my wife.

Thankyou, Bernanke.

H1N1 is resurfacing in UK, with more a higher case fatality ratio. actually it is quite rampant in US, but the reporting is not forthcoming.

Friday, December 24, 2010

24 Dec Merry Xmas

the 800billion tax relief would probably end up in paying off Credit Cards debt, and higher food and gas prices.
US is a consumption society. Hence the 800billion is just fuel to the imminent inflation cycle, hyperinflation for some countries.

Meredith has also defined one of the themes for 2011: the collapse of municipal bonds.

Crude is now slowly creeping up when nobody is watching. WTI just went passed 91 and targetting 92. As the consolidation period for Crude has been almost a year, this rise would take another year to rest, unlike the previous assault on 147 in 2008. Demand for heating oil is driving the demand. Let us see, if there would be a severe snow storm in China like in 2008.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

23 Dec 1260

On my posting 8 Dec, have said 1260 is about the target of this Xmas rally.
there are enough funds buying out there to share some pork to my subscribers. now the conventional wisdom is that the market would take a pause from here, meander and make a deeper correction.
Most goverments are targetting a slower pace of growth next year to moderate inflation concerns. However, for America, it cannot afford to slow down, as Obama is targeting the 2nd term. However would Bernanke let him have it ? as I had said all the while, Bernanke is Repbulican's Trojan Horse.
Would the secret coucil of the World allow another African black Muslim president ?

Thank you all my readers and subscribers, wish you all a merry Christmas, as usual, I would be sipping Shiraz in the moon.
Meanwhile, let see if any of big Earthquakes happen over the Xmas, like the Tokai, St.Andreas and Madrid fault.


Monday, December 20, 2010

20 Dec Melodrama

North Korea said SKorea never fired in its direction, hence no retaliation. SKorea said it fired in the same direction as last time.

Essentially, it is never a win when your opponent is expecting it. So we shall wait for the next stealth move from North Korea.

So would expect the much awaited Xmas rally to bein in earnest, SPX to go between 1260 and 1290. Pivot trading is the way to go. Email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com if you wan to know how.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

19 Dec 2112

South Korean blame it on weather and delay any firing at YP island to 20 or 21 Dec. Reasonable, everybody wants a good rest on weekends, before a busy week. Or they need more time to tuck their officials into nice bunkers.

If I am a SKorean, I would take a trip out of the country for a week. NKorea used to fired a missle across Japan into the Pacific Ocean. Would not be surprised that Kim Jong Il fired another missle into the Japan sea.

Now, we have USS George Washington, Carl Vinson and Reagen around the Japan sea. Such a huge force is targeting China obviously.

Russia has called for UN Security Council meeting, to stall any possible attack by US on North Korean.

For the common Asia folks, it is just another charade by the politicians, people are paying scant notice, and carrying on their festive Xmas shopping.

Greenspan said US would achieve 3% growth next year.

Now picked up another doomsayer, John Titor, a self-proclaimed timetraveller.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

17 Dec Winter solstice 21 Dec

read a lot of dooms commentary, like Lunar Eclipse with Winter Solstice, Hinderberg signal, Hussman signal, etc.
now nobody buying, need to lure some forced buying.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

12 Dec Bernanke make amends to the Democrats

I read Buttonwood,

essentially Bernanke intention of QE is to fund fiscal expansion, tax cuts for the rich, spending programes for the congressman.

Bernanke effectively ended the FED.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

11 Dec James Steinberg

The deputy secretary of state James Steinberg would be travelling to Beijing next week, James is the official mentioned in a lot of those Wikileaks cables. Possibly he is to meet with those Pro-US Chinese officials. In quite a lot of Wikileaks cables, Chinese top officials is mentioned to sound conciliatory to Steinberg on other events.

Meanwhile China has sworn solidarity with North Korea. and North Korea has sworn using Nuclear weapons to retaliate. Possibly they would save the trouble and just lob it into Seoul, 40km away from the border.

Thank GOD, my wife and kid has completed their Japan tour.

Possibly now, Recon troops are infiltrating into North Korea setting up Ob post around their nuclear facilities.

Friday, December 10, 2010

10 Dec now what ?

used to be easy to be a stock investor, buy and enjoy the ride. however nowadays things are uncertain. everybody afraid of the next Flash Crash round the corner.

As my PhD conferment ceremony is next week, may be I would share to the public some good trading ideas/charts this weekend. If you want a personal mail, drop a comment.

Meanwhile, market is anticipating another China rate hike this weekend. as I am still bullish midterm, wait for the knee-jerk drop to load up.

Robert Gates is planning a visit to China to talk about talks. Hanky Paulson used to visit China and made the Chinese stick with their Treasuries purchases to its own detriment, while playing boy-gal relationship with then Chinese Deputy Premier Wu Yi.
US Mullen, Gates are buying time to build up a case for a wicked China, possibly with support from other nations before it attack North Korea.

What China needs to do now, is to deploy missles along the Yellow Sea, and possibly anti-aircraft battalion into North Korea. If North Korea falls, American troops would march right up to the Cloud Mountain right at Chinese border.

So China has to play real tough now, possibly ringfencing those US financial interests before they flee.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

9 Dec NK


North Korea is developing/has developed nuclear torpedoes or underwater vessels. This reminds us last week news about North Korea brandishing its mini-nuclear submarine. The implication is immense, as a small nuclear underwater device can wipe out the entire flottilla of pacific command. Or it can sail into Busan port secretly.

Think US must put a stop to this North Korean nonsense and bomb N Korea flat and then advance the South Korean troops northward. Guess that is why Meyers is in the Seoul for.

China would be accused of not stopping the war, it has the blame squarely in its pants.

Round 1: America has won.

By the way, as the CNBC anchor has said, the market is not tradig on fundamentals. It is more like trading on the maximum pain.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

8 Dec Assange

Assange like me, Aragon, has vision of what is coming. Support for Wikileaks is strengthening. Common folks around the world are now waking up to the fact that they have been misled by their governments. Civil unrest would gather pace.
Businesses like Visa, Mastercard, Amazons, which withdrew their services from Wikileaks would face growing retaliations among Consumers.

It is essentially a battle betweeh the HAVE and "HAVE NOT" in the society.

What I look forward to is the leaks on UFOs and Doomsday.

Meanwhile, US is preparing for war. The Joint Chiefs are now in Seoul. The burden to diffuse the situation is now resting with China.

If China backs down and condemns NKorea, only then SKorea and US would hold back their massive air bombardment on NKorea and its nuclear facilities. Sort of a warning to Iran.

Would expect SPX to rise towards 1260 after this round of correction, taking advantage of weak volume during the Xmas.

My readers have been told where to take profit for the SPX, Gold, silver, as an example my trendline projection of Silver to 30.50. Silver went to 30.688 as its highest this decade. Though my Gold projection is more ambitious at 1455.

However beware, if there is any new military actions or secrets divulged. The Sky is the limit for Commodities.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

4 Dec Weekend again

Another lazy weekend, family members has gone to Japan, during the US-Japan War Games in the Southern sea of Japan.

New York Times wrote an article on Gold, talking about Gold standards. China commitee members on monetary talked about China importing more Gold to assist switch to international RMB currency, also suggest US to sell its Gold to relief its debt.

So the stage is set, for the Gold climax, it is still in its early stages of a prabolic rise. Soros has said, Gold is the ultimate bubble.

The Korea-Japan-America trinity has silenced China. China is keeping silent. The errie silence means something is going to happen.

Now Europe is in its most severe Winter in a century, possibly it would last for a couple more months, seeing a mini-ice age of sort. Air travel, trains, would come to a standstill. Less movements across Europe. Probably China would join in its next severe snow storm since the last one in 2007.

There is increasing chatter for a big Earthquake of sort from 17 Dec (end of magnetic trimester) to 21 Dec (the full moon).

Meanwhile expect, SPX, Crude, all commodities to rally once more, SPX to vacinity of 1300 for the Xmas cheers.

Merry Xmas to all my followers.

Monday, November 29, 2010

29 Nov Fairy tale ending

seems like we have a Fairy Tale ending afterall. 2 more days to go before the US Korea exercise ends, and George Washington leaves the scene. Then the mouse comes out to play again.

only thing moving is Euro, going to break 1.3000 back into 1.2000.

29 Nov Korean war prophecies

if you think I am nuts, watch this:

I would not be surprised if some US elements is funding the North Korean, like if they fire a missle, they would have 100mil into their overseas account.

May be the Wikileak coming in about 6 hours from now, would reveal some devastating information about the US, China, Korean, etc.

Now China doing the "talks about talks" strategies, the same one Iran has used for the past 3 years. May be buying time for it to manoevre its troops. Seems like now, it does not mind the US in its Yellow Sea.

The end of times is near.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

28 Nov Sorry, sorry, sorry

am playing chess with my kid on this Sunday. The Korean game now is like a Chess game. South Korea has already lost 2 rounds. first 70 plus sailors, now 2 marines and 2 citizens. It is the will to fight that counts. With South Korea having billions and billions to lose, and North Korea none. The outcome is obvious.

The South Korean generals swear that they would make the North Koreans pay thousand times. Well, think it is the other way round. North Korea may already has a nuclear tipped missle, with Tokyo in sight.

Now, the North Koreans have deployed their Surface to Air missles to the coast. And recalled its citizens from the Russian factory. It is amassing its troops, under the command of the hier in apparent, the son of Kim Jong Il. The son is just 40 km away from taking all the wealth and beauty in the capital city of Seoul.

And the South Koreans are already saying: "Sorry" .

You know what, last week, Mark Mobius was on Boomburg talking about good buys in Emerging Markets. His eyebrow has already turned white. Wonder if he has time to enjoy his Emergin Markets fruits, if he is going to hold it to the last nail on the coffin.

Have you ever doubted that Obama is the Anti-Christ ? Now he is going to fan the next Korean War, and probably Iran war would start next year. And Chavez with his newly acquired Missles would point it straight into the heart of Washington.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

27 Nov Obama injured

yes, Obama suffered a mortal wound to his head as what the Bible has predicted. On Friday, when Obama played basketball, he hurt his lips and needed 12 stitches.

Revelation 13:3, "And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast."
Now confirmed Obama is the Anti-Christ. And his opportunity to start a war would be the imminent confrontation with North Korea, with George Washington sailing into the Yellow Sea soon.

Yellow Sea is in the Northeastern coast of China. It used to be the place when Japan first occupied the Northeastern province of China, and in China "BaQua", it is the "life" door. Any disturbance can cause turmoil in classic Geomancy science.

Students in China ran amock in the school canteen protesting the rise in prices for their lunch. If you have eaten in those canteens for workers and students. The factory outsource food services to caterers who make a living on slim margins. With rising input costs and fixed selling prics, the quality would suffer.

The Chinese government is now clamping down on daily commodities prices. This would backfire and cause the factories to shut. China would suffer a sudden loss of speed.

Thanx to Bernanke.

Today in my neighbourhood, Citibank opened a new branch catering to suburban crowds, as their customers base is dwindling. It prepares free parking coupons for drivers and distributed them using some youths. After a while, the youth started to pocket those parking coupons.

Now arrest in happening in India, America of people collaborating in bribes, cheating schemes, with access to easy monies in the billions. So Bernanke is the false prophet.

Now I am thinking of pulling my loan to my India partner, incase he is leveraged to the hilt in the stockmarket.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

23 Nov USD days are numbered

with the NKorea strike, USD rallied and then now tumbling. USD as the safe haven currency status is now over. USDJPY now at 82.88.

First South Korea lost its frigate, then now get shelled. And US and South Korea are talking about talks.

Bernanke QE has cause misery in NKorea with their hyperinflation, now they have to resort to violence to seek concessions and monies.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

22 Nov Hong Kong Earthquake

Since 1979, there has only been 6 Earthquake detected in HK. on 19 Nov, an Earthquake of 2.8R was recorded on the North-eastern side of HK, and south of Shenzhen, China.
Interesting times indeed.
The Eight Dragons of HK has since returned to heaven, let us see who is going to protect HK.

The Americans are now fedup with the nonsense with Bernanke and TSA. It would ratchet up the pressure after thanxgiving.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

17 Nov bull trend intact

this is the Shanghai condo fire, which killed 53 people. The nylon net for renovation work caught fire and burnt the residents like a cooker. such units cost about 30,000 RMB per SQM. Ridiculous price, wrongful death.
Fire said to be arson started by renovation workers. This condo is right in the pricey ZingAn district, where all the Marroits, Ritz Carlton, Hilton hotels are.
That is CHINA.

Soon China would ban bamboo or wood scalfolding, and switch the iron or metal scaffoldings, i.e. demand for metals. Commodity demand is a never ending game, unless world population is reduced by 2/3 as what Kissinger has proposed.

The bull trend (mid term) is still intact. so expect buying to come in around 1160, otherwise, 1140 and then 1100. just like 1000 was well defended by Bernanke. We should see the FED defining the bottom of this correction at about 1100, if it is ever tested.
would not be surprise to see Euro drop back to 1.2700, though it did not reach our target of 1.4700 this time. the hedgies are out to play the Euro this time, and buy it back cheaper early next year. Expect Euro to drop into Xmas.
Commodities, metals should continue to corect into Dec for a good buy.
Bernanke 600 billions is looking for a cheap buy, and you know the power of 600billions soon.

Also Prince William's coming marriage has bring now ray of hope to the British, we would see EURGBP breakdown into 0.70. We can also not discount the Olympic effect with China investments. GBP may just the RMB shadow reserve currency.

Monday, November 15, 2010

15 Nov China inflation

well, China media is toking about inflation.
Inflation means suppliers collectively raising prices. In China it is really scary when food stores recycle oil poured into drains, sell dead fish, boost milk with Melamime. Inflation hurts pple in the western part of China, the impoverished provinces and risks riots.
i.e. China government would have to raise it RMB, and that means manufacturer could not export as much, that means lower GDP, less hiring of workers. China is now caught in a downward spiral, shoved in by Bernanke with his 600b that knocks the China humpty dumpty from the wall.
The downward spiral depends on how fast the inflation goes. With the severe weather patterns worldwide, the impact would be more severe than any other precedents in history.
How deep the fall would be, it is yet to be seen.
the down move would be quite swift, meanwhile holding there, gasping for orgasm.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

14 Nov Lazy Sunday

Well, it is a laszy Sunday alright. nothing significant happened at the G20 or APEC meetings, just another opportunity for those guys to travel, eat, wine and dine. probably all these finace officials would be cooking up another travel agenda, just to keep themselves busy.

China Shanghai composite dropped 5% within a day, basically no way for the retails to run. holding on, hoping.

Meanwile the Chairman to be of China in 2012, Mr Xi Jing Ping is pulling a big delegation to Singapore. Remember the Mr Zhou XiaoChuan of China Central Bank spoke of means to round up the liquidity coming from US. And the funds are coming via Singapore in the comouflage of trade, and individual accounts. China need a means to monitor this accounts and flows of funds. Remember that the BHP Biliton actually moves its HQ to Singapore, and moved even its China staff to Singapore.
The very eminent and intelligent Prime Minister of Singapore doubt that there would be Currency War. Essentially all those 600 billions of monies would be rounded up somewhere in Singapore. Wow, imagine 600 billions of monies coming your way. [ironically, no US taxpayers would get a cent of it].

Meanwhile, all stocks, commodities taking a breather before the next rally. How far SPX would drop ? probably holding around 1160. Euro should begin its next move to 1.4700 to 1.5000 shortly. Crude would break 90 this time.

You know what, I realise Bernanke is the false prophet.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

7 Nov Mid course correction coming

within 2-3 weeks after Obama said buy stocks in Feb 2009, SPX hit 666 and bounce all the way. Now he says "mid course correction coming".

With Obama coming to Asia, he as the Anti-Christ is going to bring Earthquakes, flash floods and possibly the resurgence of Flu, a deadlier variant in the region. There are now news report of deadly H3N2 fatalities in Japan, 6 patients died from the virus in the hospital in less than a week.

Obama is travelling to India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

7 Nov Wind moves,

a well known story about a China Buddhist grandmaster, 惠能六祖。
once a buddhist abbot asked the monks when he looks out into the yard, "is it the wind that moves, or the flag that moves ?".
some monks say the wind, some say the flag.
The grandmaster who was a kitchen helper then replied: "it is neither the wind nor the flag, it is the heart".

So would thou say the Euro has risen or the Dollar has sunk ? Neither, it is the Faith.
Faith is the center piece of Adam Smith invisible hand, the core of the Animal Spirit.

7 Nov Trojan horse?

Giant solar flare today, effect would be know in next few days. Watch out the collapse of Mt Merapi, its volcanic ash already caused 2 Qantas engine to failed just when the planes are over Indonesia. We could see all flights stopped in south Asia like what happened to the Icelandic volcanic eruption earlier this year.

I am pretty amused watching Charlie Rose, and his guest said that Karl Rove (R) received 6 millions from a single donar weeks before the midterm. Now, if that is not QE monies, it has to be drug monies.

Obama essentially sold off his Democrats colleagues to the Republican, by letting the Wall Street have a field day on Democrats. And Nancy Pelosi has the gut to claim to continue as minority leader. He has the guts to run away from fuming Democrats for his Asia tour.

China is asking Timmy to explain the QE2, and Bernanke came out and explained that his interest is US not other countries. Essentially he is declaring war on other countries. Benny at the Jacksonville college Q&A essentially gave the green light for commodity rally when he says that commodity is the exception. Crude included. So you know the big funds and Benny's frens are now very much on the long side of CRB.

We are now at an important junction with SPX approaching 1228. Should we take profit or not ?

As you can see QE2 is not going to help the Americans, it is going to stuff up the coffers of the Republicans and Bankers. By 2012 the Republican would have a much bigger war chest than the Democrats.

Is Bernanke Republican's Trojan horse in Obama administration ? His next task is to secure the Republican victory in 2012.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

4 Nov Post QE2 -> Anarchy

Now market has an excuse to rally the Crude, NatGas, while other soft commodities are already at new high. Crude just had a breakout from months of ranging. Target 120.

China dumping its USD on american Boeing. this should boost US manufacturing for a while. A large part of the 600b would flow into Commodities.
Obama energy plan is stalling.

Everywhere, we see QE2 bashing, Bernanke bashing, while we are ll basking in the glory of stimulus. The media is hyping up public awareness of QE, and associating it with inflation, this provides fertile ground for panic buying of commodities, Gold.

Gold refuse to retrace, now it is on its way into 1500. Silver would be quicker and sterling. Euro would be on its leg towards 1.5000 till QE3 comes along (just cannot believe it, Euro is now at 1.4275, no resistance at all, like butter through hot knife). Would not be surprised if GBP goes back to 2.0 courtesy of the coming London Olympics. By the way, there are heavy shorts in GBP all the way up to 2.0. Yen would melt to 76, on its way towards 60 eventually (be careful Andy Xie wrote about a piece on BoJ enticing Yen shorts to pay off its national debt and then making a reversal towards 120).Anarchy. The Currency War. Nations grabbing other nations resources, monies to pay off its own debt.

SPX should grind towars 1300 till inflation call it a day.

Actual inflation is much higher than official statistics. Inflation is cutting into American product quality. American is buying less reliable products at same price.

Nonetheless, the wealth effect is unmistakeable. I got a handsome bonus from my contract work, and my wife splurged on a new new three seater cowhide softa, and then a new set of curtains, and believe it or not, a trip for 7 days Japan trip.

I am now waiting for the monies for my next car, a BWM X6, or may be a Lexus IS-F.

The call to disband the FED would be much higher. Bernanke is Republican's Trojan horse all the while. After Obama is much of a lawyer, and lacks the wisdom and stature of a President.

next 2 years, Obamam would spend more time on Diplomacy (geo-conflicts), traveling the globe, literally letting Amercia going into Anarchy, with Republican and Democrats fighting every bill, and the Tea Party gathering steam, forming the 3rd party in American politics.
The American blacks would wallow in self-pity when their pride has failed America.

Hilary would form her power based for the next Presidential election (with Pelosi now gone and Reid still hanging on a noose till the next election). While the Generals would be plotting the next Pacific war with China, with the Japan navy, American pacific fleet and Russian fleet encircling China. China should be beginning its next major stockpile of crude for its 3rd/4th phase of strategic petroleum reserve.

End of times signal:

Eathquake, Merapi and 15 other volcanoes becoming active when Obama is coming to Indonesia.

The next G20 would mark tha beginning of another year of Anarchy.

All nations on its own, for its own. The final war at Amagedoo would take shape. The Hizbollah would soon be launching a fresh flurry of rockets onto Tel Aviv.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

2 Nov Pre-QE2

now media trying to set expectation at 500b, and then FED annouce 1T. reason for a rally. whatever it is, market wants to rally, or rather, everything under the sun would rally.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

30 Oct KAJI the ultimate gambler

watched another DVD on this lazy weekend, Kaji, the ultimate gambler.

I find it a very interesting movie, with lots of parallel in reality.

(1) the game of rock-paper-scissors. one player game the other to play 12 rounds of rock paper scissors, as long as they are draw, they both win, i.e. both play the same cards. on the 9th game, the 1st player played a different card and won, then 10th game as well, defying the earlier agreement.
This sounds like the game of HFT, wherby the traders agree to buy what others sell. And then at the last few games, somebody play cheat. And this lead to the flash crash in May.

(2) Those gambling losers were banished underground to build tunnels. They are given banana dollars, and then enticed to use those monies to buy beer, titbits, so that they would never be able to repay their loans.
That is Bernanke, he prints monies to give to the Americans to spend to consume, and then have them laden in debt.

(3) Gamblers would go to extreme, even losing their life to repay debt.
Well, we would soon see society as its extreme.

(4) the Manga game of Emperor, Citizens and Slave.
Slave would win over Emperors when they have nothing to lose. Yes, we would soon see those enslaved in debt revolt against the establishment.

(5) Gamblers never win.
The main actor, though he has won billion yens, was eventually drugged and have his monies stolen.
Well, those who gambled on the QE2 rally, may not get their monies. That goes the same for the Gold ETF, when the ETF annoucnes that it does not have enough physical gold to match its commitements.

Vietnam is now baning its banks from selling gold. Vietnam citizens bought paper gold from the banks, and the banks sold the physical to the funds, etc. Much like what happened to America Fort Knox Gold.

Also East Asians countries are now planning elections in the coming months to reap benefits of their stimulus pro

30 Oct Volcano

18 out of 21 volcanos in Indonesia is forecasted to become active, and on the verge of eruption. The most notable one is Merapi, followed by Krakatau.
Russian Kamtchatka is now erupting.

We may seen consecutive volcano eruption worldwide, sending plums into the sky. Darkening the sky for weeks, if not months. Adding to the severe winter in the Northern hemisphere. The arrival of the most severe winter in 1000 years would soon become a reality. Northern hemispheric activities would grind to a halt, with land transportation hindered by deep snow.

Watched Tom Keene, with guest Dumas from Lombard, a fellow from ECRI, and Alan Hubbarb from U. Columbia.
ECRI says no risk of Double Dip, Lombard says short term perverse effect of QE2. Alan says return to 1950s where Republicans rule and Democrats live.

Yes, America needs to return to the 1950, 1960s, the baby boomers are now into retirement age. they can ill afford to pay housing taxes, and would readily put their houses on sale. And foreclosure is going to escalate, as occupants stand to earn by having free rent from the bank.
Read about overseas Chinese homebuyers snapping up houses in LA, NY. Pretty sure some of them are overleveraged by now.

the internet is flooded by talks of crisis, black swan events. You would probably see a meltup of Equities, Gold, Silver, everything under the sun to their peak. Then come the major fall into the abyss, the Hades. (somehow I have this uneasy feeling with Benny lately).

In fact China has sweared that it can meet US terms that it curb its trade surplus in 3 years. So it has given a hint that China is going to slow down pretty soon and lasting quite a while. Meanwhile HK market is retreating, thanx to a TV series by a famous HK actor. (whenever there is a show by that actor, the HK stock market dips in the past 20 years, the call it the QiuKuang effect 秋官效应).

For SPX, one more leg up. QE2 is still QE2, no matter what they say.
The only loser now is OPEC, with their stealth overproduction, they are not able to rally price to 100. Perhaps a couple of fires by the Nigerian militants would do the trick. Crude is on its tilting point.

Let see if dirty Harry Reid got his judgment.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

24 Oct QingDao

yes, QingDao, that is where Timmy is headig to when he meets China deputy preimier on finance matters, Wang QiShan. Wang was Bank of China president. 2 ex-bankers meeting for a SPA or SPAR ?

probably bad boy Timmy would be oggling at those long legged slit dress hostesses in QingDao.

So it is unfinished business at the Seoul IMF meeting. Sad that Europe has to give up its seats and not the Americans.

So we should expect more of the same next week till GDP announcement, i.e. Stock grinding up into 1200, Gold dropping below 1300, while other individual commities rally. Everybody is doing their own show, no correlation, all pandemonium. Monies sloshing around in hours, seeking harbour. Suddenly monies appear out of no where, and then disappear in a wink.

24 Oct BEAR , just play dead

BEAR, another DVD I watched. too boring.

believe it or not, China media TV ralking about military might comparison between Japan and China. A lady audience speaks while tears dripping about seeking peace. And a speaker is very sure that US would intervene if China and Japan fights over the DiaoYu island.

China has its own global position system,
China Missle: TungFung 21D
Japan has the second largest fleet of anti-submarine helicopters.
Japan has light aircraft carrier.

If Japan claim on the island is successful, its sea border is just 100 km away from a major China coastal city. Most part of the China sea plate belongs to Japan.
China young people much awaits a fight with Japan to state sovereign.

What China is afraid of, is US intervention.

When Japan captured the China boat captain, he was interrogated continously for days.

I picked up quite a lot of Gold bearish talk:



Silver has broken uptrend line. Gold yet to break. For my subscribers, they have been told how to position.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

23 Oct SALT

What is SALT ? the DVD that I am watching. It is about counterintelligence. Reminds me of the gun shooting in Pentagon last week. The Wikileak this week. Things are definitely boiling. As what the Five Star generals says, info on US soldiers torturing Iraqis definitely endanger the safety of American troops.

Spoke with a Chinese over the week, she just put it bluntly: American prints monies and buy all the hardworked product of Chinese. And then asset prices rise in China, the Chinese have to spend away the monies that they earnt in high asset prices.

In the end, it is only a few who gained from the monies printing. While the majority of people in China and America lost.

Geithner is dangling the threat of another flood of monies, forcing the Chinese to raise their currencies.

For the Chinese, the only way out is to impose capital control. And they would, just as Malaysia Mahatir has done to thwart the plans of the American interests, with Paul Krugman, the avid Keynesian, as their spokesman.

Meanwhile, rumours are flying. the Chinese want to have a talk with the South East Asians on its territorial waters around the Philippine sea, rich with gases.
And the Japanese is depatch submarine to investigate if the Chinese is already setting up oil drilling facilities under water in the Easter Sea

Prices in China is now reported in media, sugar, cotton, prices rising. CPI hitting 3.6% and rising.

The currency war would lead to a small scale war like the British-Argentinian Falkland war. Perhaps soon, we would see the emergence of the first air-craft carrier in China.

That would probably explains why Pretcher and friends forecast DJIA going to 1000 if not 5000.

Meanwhile, on a lighter note. Singapore stock exchange (SGX) is buying up ASX (Australian stock exchange). SGX is finding dwindling volumes, as retails shy away after bad memories in 2008. While the 2 Casinos in Singapore is ringing up hundred millions in revenue in a month. The moms and pops as well as business man are losing their hard earned monies in casinos. Tales of businessman losing 100 millions, 26 millions are wagering tongues. Also small businesses suddenly collapsed, spas, commercial schools stop business overnight.

If you invest 100 millions in financial instruments, Blankfein has to nibble an entire year to rid you of your monies. You step into a casinos with 100 millions, LVS Sheldon would take it from you in one night, giving you some free champage in exchange. That is the art of making monies.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

20 Oct Sinking feeling

dun know if any of you follows this:

Pakistan, Southeast Asia: Thailand, Indonesia are sinking. So far scientist have not explained. People think it is the rain.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

19 Oct Bank

reading Reuters headline, Lockhard says QE must be big, Geithner vows to defend dollar.
so Double Talker Timmy is out to encourage some Gold shorts and Euro shorts.

If Timmy is right, we would see world fleeing away from risks, selling equities, into USD, when QE2 is announced.

Finaly China has raised interest rate, current at 5+%. This is would the onset of the China housing bubble correction. Remember last time when Mr Shi JinPing was promoted into the politburo overshadowing the chairman designate, Li KeQiang, Shanghai stock exchange slumps from 6000. Another cycle of China market correction has begun, soon HK and Shanghai would follow suit, when those millionaires become Johny come lately, and start to dump their Real Estate portfolio.

found out the international remittance of USD is taking longer than usual. The China banks are switching their international intermediary bank, staying away from BoA, etc. A silent storm is brewing.

Megi is going to touch China shores, including Hong Kong. Last time a few weeks ago, HK has the highest number of thunder strikes.

last time, when the magazines wrote about Paulson bought Gold in his portfolio and not seeing growth, there were rumours of him dumping his gold.
We just need another piece of news to mark the next rally in Gold.
HK official talked about De-dollarisation of HK peg to USD. South Korea minister talked of increasing Gold holding. Meanwhile, China is horribly silent.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

17 Oct Obama Grin

2011 would be the year of Obama.
it would be lameduck congress, but it sure ain't a lameduck President. We would see a very different White House in 2011. Lucifer has seized the centre of power.

Companies are now rushing to sell themselves to Private Equities, like AOL, etc. Why ? private equities are the managed pool of monies of some rick people. The so called rich people always become the last suckers in the game. Remember the hype of Private Equities before Oct 2007 ?

Meanwhile, Typhoon Mega is the strongest typhoon in this year to hit South China. Second, Wednesday we would see a comet on its closest path to earth.

Economist front page for this week, is titled Currency War. and there are now voices sounding out US deliberate currency manipulation: Geithner orchestrating the rapid devaluation of USD, and the rise of US equities.

Becareful that before the G20, Geithner may want to halt the drop of USD in case he becomes the centerpiece of G20.

A line of thought: most US states are now bankrupt, unable to honour their pension obligations. Hence the Federal Reserve has to resort to devaluation to support its asset prices. Hence after a pause in the drop ahead of G20 and after, the USD would resume its drop. However this second time, it would be orchestrated by powerful forces, forces that pales Bernanke might.

Lucifer ultimate objective is to launch America into chaos.

This weekend a Gazprom Russian economist died. OPEC sec general said high inventory, slower growth, seeing to enforce compliance, means lower production.
CNN showing interview of ex-OPEC sec General, Sheik Yamani, accusing US of raising oil prices in 1973. Oil at 80 dollars is not exact situation, it represents the interest of hedge funds. Oil prices has nothing to do with supply and demand. Bingo, so the high inventory, and lower demand would have nothing to do with the impending rally in oil.


those who took the jab at the advice of government authorities, now has to live in fear if they would suffer nerve diseases at older age.
There would be a rave of lawsuits against the Governments and pharma companies and doctors, hospitals.

17 Oct what's up dude ?

Now last week, there were a lot of chatter on 13 Oct/15 Oct being days of great importance. IT turn out to be Bernanke speech, saying rate would hike only in 2012, not 2011. Apple, Google rocket.
Meanwhile tension in China as CCP meets closed door in Beijing for their planning for next 5 years.
Also tension is rumoured in Obamam household, when Michelle Obama is said to be abusive. The first family is cracking up, facing the furor of the entire democrat party for losing the midterm.
Obama is esentially led by Summers, Geithner giving favours to the Bankers at the expense of the American taxpayers.
Now with foreclosure fate intensifying (latest: Moody downgrading home loan companies), Obamam has to seize the chance and force banks to cut the mortgage for all Americans, esentially forcing all banks to eat their cake. This may garner some votes in November. Of course, Bernanke and Geithner would be horrified.

If Obama has closed down the banks in early 2008, when he started out, the Democrats would now be basking in glories and sunshine.
The Democrats is sacrificed by people by Chris Dodd, Barney Franks and Harry Reid.

IF I am a home owner and serving my mortage, I would walk away and demand the bank to show the title.

Meanwhile, tours to US is getting cheaper, while Japan is getting more expensive. Japan is slipping back into depression before long. China is going to halt most economic activities with Japan, when Japanese are surrounding the China embassy. And the China youngsters are surrounding the Japanese store Mizuho in Beijing.

When Obama asks the previous Japanese Prime Minister: can I trust you, he actually means can I f*** you.

Japan has now relegated itself as a country that lost the war and remain so for the next decade. It cannot even defend its own island.

By 2050, we would see China annexing Japan when Japan economy slips into moribund. Japan would become the far eastern province of the Greater China.

Friday, October 15, 2010

15 Oct Vote DemocRATS, join the game

anybody saw the billboard depicting Obama as rats alongside, FED ?

Remember the biggest buyer of Gold now is the Indians and Chinese. The Chinese even have gold exchange in Shanghai. And HK airport has setup a vault just for storing Gold.
When the drum beats, the Chinese would be piling into Gold, the next money making instrument like the Shanghai Composite in 2007.
India festival, Deepavali in coming in November, and Chinese new Year in Febraury 2011.
Goldsmith who stock up Gold when it was at 1100 would luv to sell it at a tidy profit.

Nonetheless, Gold is not much of concern to me. I am watching Crude. Iran would be the chairman for OPEC in 2011. IT would crank up something for its arrival.

May be the sea shell company may employ some militants to blow up its pipeline in Lagos, just to awaken the world to the long forgotten pipeline fire gimmicks.

How about Vitoil, asking "who has shrunk my balls ?"

now Jerome Kervail got jailed, but the so called Reed company that caused the recent flash crash got away. So you know which market would be the likely candidate for the next flash crash.

15 Oct The End is near

USD index is perching on 76, a key support: the edge of a massive double top. the double top stretches all the way from March 2008.
now it is time of reckoning for Bernanke. To QE, USD would drop through the support for eventual 60+.

No QE, SPX would be disappointed.
It is the rule of the universe, the Yin and the Yang. Bernanke cannot have it both ways. What is holding the market up is the Midterm election.

Singapore central banker threw a spanner in the works, and announces to widen its band of trading for SGD, effectively allowing a stronger SGD. Its quaterly GDP has now dropped. In fact it is forecasting a slightly higher inflation, and decide to rein in its inflation despite slower growth.

Meanwhile pricey Kimchi is raising media coverage in Korea and Asia. And also my mum was telling me about the cotton prices and the clother prices as well. Soon every mom and pop would be raising prices.

It is funny that the world rest on a failed thesis of Bernanke, who have written about aggressive Quantitative Easing. To support a academic thinking, he goes through every tricks out there to mask any sign of failure, including market manipulation, perjury to congress/senate, etc.

My friend, a wise trader, said the end game would come years away, may be in next 10 years. However, I think that people like George Soros, would not want to wait at their death bed for the end game.

China/HK are not able to curb their housing prices, as they have lost their credibility and the late comers are rushing into the peak.

5 years ago, on a forex forum I forecasted USD interest rate would goto ZERO. 2 years ago, I forecasted FED would be disbanded. And we now understand how and why the FED would be disbanded. And even further out, the 51 states of America would be divided up. As you can see the dysfunctional Congress and Senate, the monies grabbing machines.

The Japanese far right is organising a siege of the China embassy in Tokyo on 16 Oct. Chinese in Japan is facing daily abuse from Japanese. Ahmadinejadd has visited Palestine within a km of Israel. Admadinejadd is shown on TV with a starry eye when he stares into the massive welcome from the Palestinians. Can you imagine Nethanyahu almost falled into the Obama trap.

Remember Obama speech in Egypt, when he alludes to himself being a Muslim. His foreign policy is a total failure in Middleeast and Asia. China reach is now into Pakistan and Vietnam.

The world is in disarray, financially, and geo-politically. Remember Obama = 666.

The End is near.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

14 Oct market meltup

well, it is a rally alright. last time Oct 16 was the top in 2007.
Morgan Stanley analyst says more funds buying ETF, playing catchup, hence more monies flowing into market. Isn't that obvious.
It is bullish everywhere on national TV.
Gold and Silver still not there yet. am waiting.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

14 Oct correction coming

Euro now drifted below uptrend line,
after FOMC minutes, we should see all markets correction.
Though Euro 1.4000 is the interim top, next move to 1.5000 would come.
Same for GOLD, 1364 is the interim top. Gold would test 1320.
SPX would correct, next is good buying opportunity. should test 1100 again.

bull trend still in tact.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

101010 Foreclosure Gate: an important turning point

Let today be the day when all American home-owners revolt against the banks.

stop paying your mortgages, the bank cannot produce documents to chase you away.

you have the right to remain in your home.

Madhedgefundtrader calling top in Gold, seeing signs flashing read. saying "Gold is now at Deep End of Pool".

Even some Asian countries with so called strong currencies, are printing monies at will, to fund national projects. Government giving out loads of free tickets to Olympic games, when there were hardly any paying spectators. Government linked cooperations sponsoring F1 Grand Prix and giving out free tickets as well, when local audience are hardly attending.

Vietnam just had one of their grandest national celebrations in years.

While connected people get millions of risk free monies in government led QE, others just get free tickets.

All countries are printing at will now.

For fear that the nobel peace prize winner Liu XiaoBo wife would represent on his behalf to collect the prize, the CCP decides to squirrel his wife away.

101010 update

well, lots of pple getting married today because of 101010.
other than that, media starts spawning news that the IMF meeting was a failure. Strauss promises that he himself wold supervise the policies of the developed nations. Essentially China Wen JiaBao has won.

Soon the democrats leadership, Hilary, Pelosi would be targeting Geithner as the scapegoat for the Democrat midterm loss. As Geithner has failed to frame China.
Geithner would be gone before Dec 2010.

Meanwhile, China fighter jets have flown to Turkey, into the territory of NATO in a joint air exercise. While India is equipping Vietnam with new aircrafts upgrade.

All nations are now ramping up their military strength as a backstop for the coming Currency War. Nobody wants a military war, but do not mind a currency war.

Expect all asset classes to rise to historic high.

come to think of it, Blackberry is getting banned in middle-east, Google banned in China. American technologies is going to face an onslaught.

Anybody here follows Yamada, the charismatic chartist ? she was on Bloomberg Surveillance. she said 2 years yields to fall to 0.3%.

101010 something happening ?

Some doomsayers predicting somebody big happening on 10 Oct 2010, am waiting to see anything happens.

suddenly IMF becomes the hero to save the world from a Currency War. an organisation that is retard, nobody watches now claim it has a plan to thwart a Currency War.

essentially it is a bag of hot air.

so, nothing significant has happened on this weekend IMF meeting. The most attractive part is that China managed to convince Europe and IMF Strauss to voice opposition to the idea that China is to be blamed for US woes. i.e. Geither plan fails. 4 more weeks, China would have survived US midterm election.

this also means more forex volatility in this 4 weeks.
expect Gold to make a pullback touching 1320 as support, before ramping higher towards 1500. While Euro would clear 1.4000 towards 1.5000.
SPX would be closer to 1200.

The foreclosure gate would brew into a global event. and the world would gasp at the greed of US bankers and politicians.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

9 Oct Beijing Butcher

Now, China is really mad. a jailed dissident in the country get selected for Nobel Peace Prize. It is evident that the Nobel Peace Prize commission is a political apparatus, more so after it selected Obama in 2008 for its Peace Prize.

Japan intervening to devalue its currency, China adament not to do a one time hike, US allowing the dollar to slide.

China hike or not hike, the outcome is the same turmoil. China hike, all the JPM, MS, Goldman pull their shadow funds out cashing in. China not hike, it faces more abuse daily.

The US is now deliberately targeting Wen JiaBao, afterall Wen is a open minded communist clamouring for more democracy. His opponents in the administration may link him with the Liu XiaoBo Nobel Peace Prize. Chairman Jiang ZheMin has been quiet of late. It may end up as Wen JiaBao lone war against Amercian and its cronies in the China political parties.

To forestall the inevitable outcome, China need to institute capital control over the shadow funds of MS/JPM/GS/BoA/CITI namly American banking interest. And to put America proxies under surveilance. Pelosi proxies in China would be captured once and for all.

Before China faces its external enemies, it would exterminate its internal enemies, typical Communist doctrines.

Currency war or no currency war, those whose interest is at stake is losing sleeps nowadays.

Remember, Pelosi once called the Chinese Communist Party, the Beijing Butcher.

Meanwhile, we see ETFs, Funds nibbling the US market which is good.

Soft commodities is not waiting for Bernanke, it is rising like a shooting star yesterday. Cooper as well.

Vitoil and frens afraid of arrest (like Jerome Kervail), is reluctant to play the crude market once more. If the monies is there, sooner or later, somebody would come onboard.

After Iran, now US has turned the world's attention on China on the eve of its midterm election.

Now, China, make those arrest.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

2 Oct Euro and the Beast

FT weekend front page, France in secret talks with China on currency manoevres, China Wen Jia Bao pledges support for Greece.

Despite all the rambling of Ireland bank crisis, Euro is on a arrow up. Probably a lot of opportunistice Euro bear are scrambling for cover when their anticpated Europ drop is not happening.

Euro has survived a couple of crisis: Iceland, Northern rock, Germany Hypo, Greece bonds, now Ireland. It is still holding up. Then you can say that the USD is deeply flawed, the nature of which is covered up. Remember the Switzerland borders capture of 2 Japanese holding Kenney billion dollars bonds ? The FED has been secretly dumping USD with the Japanese government, and using the Japananese as the spigot. Which the Chinese is definitely not happy.

Lately, there is another China ship captured by the Japanese. China is now on a rampage to boost its oil production, as the evitable is coming, rising crude prices, crude would inch up 10/20 dollars every year. In 2012, we would probably see Crude at about 120 USD, with a high of probably 150.

Russia is also in a territory spat with Japan. Japan which remains a surrendered country to US would remain as US proxy in Asia (what a shame).

Now, talks about talks are always there, so that the Diplomat can shuttered between cities, good food, nice rub down, knob polishing. Back to reality, nobody is giving up their sovereign rights. (we may see some arrest of Japanese Ayumi lookalike spies arrested by the Chinese and vice versa).

As Nostradamus saying goes, the beast would suffer a wound. And some Hong Kong gemoacer has predicted Obama life would be in danger in 2010.

Having said this, Euro and Gold is due for a near term correction before moving up. Hence a good buying opportunity awaits.

Friday, October 1, 2010

1 Oct QE and GOD's work.

Now Dudley came out and sound support for more QE, QE at relatively low cost. So Dudley obviously has political ambition in mind. possibly replacement for Geithner or Bernanke. Hence 1 October mark a major milestone in FED policies, and the beginning of the end.

You see monies are rampant, but it is only going to the connected ones. The Banks get to roll over loans for their client at preferential rates. Preferred customers get showered with monies without any risks. This is happening in other countries as well, India, China.

The nonconnected ones, the small businesses are seeing diminishing demands.

Nonetheless, in a QE environment, companies are more willing to spend, e.g. IT projects, new busineses, etc. Only the skilled and educated profits.

American jobs have been destroyed by Bush policy of rampant foreigner import, and encourages manufacturers to seek oversea bases.

The QE is offset by weakness in USD, and resource owners want more dollars for their resources. Hence OPEC would soon raise its price range from 70-80 to 90 citing a worldwide economic recovery (which is not).

Hence another commodity bull run is coming, fueled not by speculation, but by fear of losing behind. Once food prices hikes, gasoline hikes hit headlines, it would snowball.

Inflation is what would set US into another recession, not deflation. Inflation would come suddenly, as the US goverment statisticians cannot hide the figures any more.

When Inflation comes, mortgage rates would rise, those in Asia who over invested in properties would suffer.

And China has decided to implement some form of Property Tax, starting in some cities. With Property Tax, property ownership would be basking in daylights, those who scam public monies through banks would be dragged in the open. They have to explain their wealth. So these people would be eager to rid of their properties in due time and hide the cash. I guess that is why Goldman Sachs sold it stake in China mobile this week.

Blankfein once said he is doing GOD's work at a congressional hearing. I have no doubt about that, defrauding the government, tax payers monies, benefitting select people, sustaining the financial structures. A lot of people has to thank him for that, while the general US tax payers loose. In a way, I have to thank him, Geithner, Bernanke as well, because companies are willing to spend on projects, I got my day job.
However, I am pretty sure when he comes before GOD, he would be judged differently. In a way, he is a martyr.

QE is never a fair game, some people wins, most people loses. For personal ambitions, US congressman, senators, FED governors make their choices at their personal interest. Years ago, 2005, I have predicted that FED would be abolished. And we are seeing glimmer of what is to come. In 2005, abolishing the FED is an unthinkable idea, but now, we see it is possible.

Things would happen all too soon, unlike when Nostradamus writings are known decades later. What I forsee would happen soon.

For the shrewdest bears, all they want is pole position, high up there.

1 Oct Emannuel leaving white house

now the crooks have made the monies, and now leaving the administration, Rommers, Emmanuel, Summers, probably Geithner, etc.

Bernanke made a important undertaking yesterday, no more bank bailouts. If any banks fail again, it is going to fail.

Also Frauds now reported in every district courts.

and the Evil side of Obama would rise after the mid-term. America wold go to war in 2011.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

29 Sept Gold 1320

on the last trading day of September, Gold inches towards 1320, last at 1315.
think Gold would hit its interim peak, and Stock would reverse tomorrow.

on record, this is the most stellar September in history without retail participation, low volume. When the marginal player decides to sprint, it is going to trigger an avalanche.

In an avalanche, it does not matter if it is a first stone or a big rock.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

29 Sept End Game


the end game has started.

28 Sept

Obama said US not in a jobless recovery.
He is right, US is not in recovery, it is in recession.

Meanwhile expecting the usual drop to position for the window dressing Quarter end.

Gold should touch 1320, to mark the end of the current leg of rally of Gold and SPX.

Monday, September 27, 2010

27 September Proverbial Gold top at 1320

1320 has been the expected top. let see. what would trigger the drop.

Friday, September 24, 2010

24 Sept Silver record high

yes, Silver is now higher than it was years ago, and Gold just below 1300.
India big festival in November, then Xmas and Chinese New Year in 3 Feb 2011. Demand is heavy in coming months.

The trading shows steady, no panic buying. Orderly fashion. The question is if the market allows a deep enough retracement to buy on the cheap.

Think soon, somebody would offer some insights stories into Fed swapping aways US gold holdings, or some Banks/ETF not holding actual gold, this would trigger a buying frenzy.

Some were expecting SPX to reach 1300, seems like Gold has taken the lead. Would Summer jive up SPX to 1300 before he leaves his job ?

Meanwhile, the currency is big deal for China manufacturers. As their profit margin is now razor thin, especially those clother manufacturers, low tech industries. a 5% rise would wipe would their profit. 10% would see mass layoffs. 20% we have chaos.
Hence China would not relent no matter what. It is better to face tariffs than drastic revaluation.

As for the US, the bill would be stuck in the Senate and then evaporates after the midterm election. Mr Wen just has to hold the fort for another month. The pressure would disappear.

As you know Obama is all talk. Now he wants the world to pressure Israel and Palestine into talks. Those goons advicing Obama ought to be fired. Wel, Hilary is just smiling away.

Watched the movie Greenzone. Feel sad for the Iraqis.

Well, nothing new in the market. Better gobbling up all my new DVD titles: the Expandables, Prince of Persia, Robin Hood, etc.

As for the Japanese and China row. Japan has backed off. China would begin exploration and drilling in earnest into the Eastern Sea oilfields. While Japan wold just watch. Should see some military confrontations soon.

As USDJPY is approaching historical low, if dollar index breaks 77, we shold see accelerated selling of dollars into 70, then 65. Think China would be caught in the cookie jar, with its hand full of US treasuries.

The China officials who orchestrate all these US Treasuries purchase should be put to the firing squad. Possibly Geithner squirreled away 0.001% of T bills bought as bribes held in a US bank for the Chinese official. ( I have this feeling they struck the deal during the WTO in Singapore).

That explains why Wen JiaBao is lamenting, the Communist Party is rotten to its core.

When Gold is rising, you better sit up and watch. Bernanke is said to have his desktop showing Gold prices, and he watch it everyday he starts work.
And UFOs are said to be mining Earth Gold enslaving the Summerians.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

14 September 1274

Gold spot made a new high 1274. we should see a pullback, and then march towards 1300. perhaps to 1320 before this rally pauses.

Euro rise is even more amazing, days after Deutsche Bank announces share sales, Greek crisis stirring, strikes in Europe, Euro defies all these negativities and rises, back into 1.3000. Short interest should still be there. We should see short squeeze all the way back into 1.3300. If Euro holds 1.3300, then 1.4000 is the target.

Yen strength would pause, while passing the baton to Euro. UK Inflation is rising again. BoE may signal early rate hike. Unfortunately, Crude is not making much headway, still below 78.

Silver is on its way to challenge its 2008 high of 21.34. now at 20.44.

S&P is not rising as much, now at 1126. 1140 would be the near term resistance.

What is the market telling us ?

Monday, September 13, 2010

13 September SPX bullish wedge breakout

1124 bullish breakout, aiming for 1200 again.
Euro rising as well.
Let us see who wins the Jap election. Media positioning as such:
Ozawa wins, YEN intervention, USD strengthen
Kan wins, no YEN intervention, USD weakens

Meanwhile, some Asia markets make 2 year new high. Asian currencies also at record strength.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

12 September all peaceful and quiet

well, Jones decided not to burn, since he is in New York enjoying himself, probably with some paid for nob polishing.

Meanwhile Hong Kong has a thunderous night when it recorded a record high thunder strikes. Hong Kong has a tragic year, with constant bikering in the media about the government, and lately with the Philippine bus killings.
When the incident happened, the Chief Executive of HK called the Philippine President, and his call was turned down.
This week, the Philippine president jokingly said that the Chairman of China, Mr Hu Jingtao would not take a call from a province chief in Philippine.

SPX showing a classic rising Wedge, according to Buslowski chart pattern, it is a bullish sign. Also there is a multi-month bullish head and shoulder pattern.

A breakout is imminent next week, with Equities launching into a new rally. Gold into a new high towards 1500, Crude back into 90.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

11 September to burn or not to burn / Panda Yen crisis

It is a previlege to write on this 911 anniversary. Considering one is alive, not having died of sickness, burnt to death or killed by a co-worker.


Kraft Foods, an American pride, saw worker rage. After Kraft bought Cadbury at a high price, it is paying the price now, having to retrench workers worldwide. With dwindling profit margins, companies have to survive by market share, larger volumes. We would see more and more buy-out, mergers, and middle-class and lower class jobs are getting fewer and fewer.

Bush has basically sold out all the high tech jobs to overseas, by allowing a free flow of H1-B. Overseas worker flood the US job market, made those job disappear with their departure.

Even if housing stabilise, it is going to be a long bottom, when Americans struggle to accumulate wealth to buy a new house.

Meanwhile, media, bankers are sustaining the facade of a recovering economy.

I was walking about in my neighbourhood. A haircut by some senior citizens used to be 10 dollars. Now youngish barber in salons are charging 5 dollars for a haircut, and the shop is swamped with people.

It is going to be a long Kondratieff Winter with spurts along the way.

Jones has travelled to New York to get confirmation that the mosque would not be built on Ground Zero. Well, everyone knows that the mosque would be built no matter what, and Obama would grace the opening one day. Perhaps Jones would be compensated by some contracts to his company.

If he insists, probably he would be taken down by some sniper. Otherwise, he would be the laughing stock of the world. "Terry Jones, the coward pastor". Most Americans would want him to burn, frankly.

Pakistanis are shown on TV to burn American flags, and Hilary is speechless. While Yuan is now written on every newspaper to be going global. USD would soon be replaced in major transactions. The fall of USD would be accelerating.

China bought up YEN. and now China and Japan is having a spat on a disputed island, rich of gas and oil. And the Japs decided to drug one of the Panda to death.
The rise of YEN would be unstoppable, making a new record strength. EURO would follow.

Let me call it the "The Panda YEN crisis". it is actually in the favour of Japanese corporations, they can gobble up overseas asset with ease. And that is precisely what the opponent of current premier KAN is planning. Using YEN to defeat his opponent, Japanese style.

The world is set for major conflicts, just short of the Easterly Wind.

For new readers, you have to subscribe to get my charts on next week positions, stoploss for currencies, SPX and INDU, Gold, Silver, Crude.

Gold update

For those subscribed to my view of an imminent Gold rally, a bit of news:
poleshift.ning.com, Zeta newsletter,
The resident of Annunaki, on Planet X, used to enslave the Sumerians, a earlthy tribe for years to harvest Gold from the ground.
Probably earthly beings like us can trade gold with the Annunaki to get us away from the Earth during the coming Poleshfit (what you see on 2012). No wonder, recent rampant sights of UFOs explain that some sort of visits by the Annunakis is happening.
"Buy GOLD, it would save your life and those of your families when Poleshift comes"

Coming Monday, Gold would fake a down move and then break the 1265 historical high. Reason attributed would be the Europe banking crisis (The strongest German bank DB selling shares), more Japan Banks on edge of brankrutpcy, and of course more monies printing from the FED to support Obama stimulus II.

Friday, September 10, 2010

10 September Pastor and Iman

Big fire raging in San Bruno county in California, some say because of Natural Gas burst, some say aircraft drop onto ground, not sure.

Also the Pastor is said to retract his decision and proceeding with the burning on Saturday. Jones said he was lied to by the Iman, i.e. the Iman is not shifting the mosque from ground zero. Now Iran has chipped in and said it is a plot by Israel.


Remember it was Obama who supported the idea of having a mosque on ground zero.

Well, these noise would just come and go. But this Saturday 9/11 would be an interesting day.

Instead of buying USD, the greedy Chinese went to buy YEN, and now the Jap is really pissed.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

9 September Gold 1265

how much of Short Interest is there at 1260 to 1265 level ?
it would be interesting to see the flurry of stop loss.

called a friend, and he has this interesting question of "how can you cure Debt with more Debt ?". And the recycling of Europe debt crisis is now a wolf call, it does not garner as much fear as before. And of course the biggest debtor is the United States of America.

when is the endgame ?

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

8 September full moon and Lucifer Effect.

Quote stuffing,


no matter the deficits is at 2 Trillions, Bernanke prints 2 Trillions dollars, those quote suffer on the trading platform wants your hundred dollars.

not everybody has access to Bernanke 2 trillions borrow at 0% and lend to consumers at 16% per annum.

the financial system is kaput to say the least.

Meanwhile, after 2 yrs in office, Obama announces monies for infrastructure, one wonders what he has been doing in his 1st 2 years. Australia Gillard also announces monies for Infra. Aussie Central Bank has halted rate rise. Korea to follow after hiking this week. Deflation is taking over Inflation. However Inflation has already done its damage in China, and other emerging Asia countries, like Singapore, Hong Kong. Land prices keep on making new high despite government efforts to stem properties prices rally.

Developers who have made their monies is doubling up, like Li Kah Shing in Hong Kong and the Ong family in Singapore. The Billionaires are betting on a Bull Run 2. Unfortunately, it is going to end up in cannablisation among the tycoons, as that is where the monies are, not the moms and pops.

The next crisis would be a all out battle between the Governments and the Tycoons. The Governments for fear of losing voters support, has to pick a fight with the Tycoons. And some Ultra-billionairs decide to fight the Government, much like Goerge Soros with the BoE. As the governments are in precarious financial state.

The ground is rich for "Lucifer Effect" to take hold. Some good soul out there may be taken over by the wandering spirit of the devil to wreak havoc, and we see the 3rd Anti-Christ appear. My prediction is that Barrack Hussein Obama soul would be overtaken by Lucifer after the mid-term election, and we are going to see a very different US government. One that is going to confront China at sea, organising Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India is a Surround-China coalition.

Also Putin is going to return as President of Russia, and US warships is going to plough the Artic route.

And Iran would be hit next year.

Amidst the Earthquakes, Volcanoes, History Channel chooses to rerun its series on Nostradamus Effect. The Fatimah prophecies, would be interesting. Pope Ratzinger has a role to play in Fatimah 3rd secret, one that herald the end of times and the collapse of the Catholic Church.

As the Indonesia Sinabung is still getting stronger and stronger, we are going to see a major blowoff, much like St Helen, that is going to cool the Earth amidst Northern Hemispheric winter. The entire Northern Hesmispher is going to see a near-ice-age experience. Heavy snow stops air traffic for weeks, weigh down power grids and make rail, road traffic impossible. Heavy snow would bear on the earth crust and trigger fault lines to crumple world wide. We would have the Madrid, St. Andreas fault line release Richter scale >8 earthquakes. (Christchurch was 7.4).

Saturday, September 4, 2010

4 September Christchurch 7.4 Earthquake

major quake hits a major city.
signs: Indonesia 400 years dormant volcanoe revived.
the Pacific plate is under stress and about to give way.

worse predictions: the Indonesia tongue would slip under the Europe plate in due time.

Friday, September 3, 2010

3 Aug short squeeze

another short squeeze,
would have expected that, when you see commentaries touting those short ETF like FAZ, etc. last week.
in the absence of moms and pops, bears are the remaining food.

funds have flown into Asia markets, pushing Asia currencies stronger.

those funds manager with nowhere to go, amidst the bond bubble, has to put monies elsewhere.

equities, bonds, commodities, not much choices around for the excess monies. Essentially the last attempt by market to deleverage was not completed.

a lot of monies are parked in real estates.

anyway, this labor day holiday, I expect to see a lot of forex actions amidst thinner liquidity on Monday, Tuesday.
Euro would break 1.2900 back to test 1.3300 and then 1.4000.
While Gold would make a new high, towards 1300. Those Gold diggers would want to push Gold higher and take their leisure to sell into the rally. Silver would make a historical high as well.

Meanwhile, do not expect any Japan government intervention, as Japan officials has said they are afraid US may not agree with their unilateral intervention. Expect USDJPY to hit 79, and make a historical low.

Some black swan event is lurking somewhere.

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

31 August waiting for ? hurricane

market gyrating. meanwhile lots of chats on those short ETF. Probably iShares, ProShares want to draw back its usual crowds, to push the ETFs.

with PPT out there, even if it breaks 1010 by 1 point, i might just be a bear trap. Hence pros are deserting this market.

think, the traders in Wallstreet just may as well stay away amidst a storm coming.

Meanwhile,3 hurricanes heading towards Taiwan and China south eastern shores. The heavy deluge of water onto Taiwan soil, may just trigger another Earthquake.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

29 August I love Bernie.

let us start with the YEN. KAN, the incumbent Japan PM pledges to fight to weaken the YEN to boost export as first priority over securing the next election.
While, a powerful cadre member of his Party reemerges to fight KAN for the Party Leadership.

That means the battle of the YEN becomes the political tool of 2 politicians aim at destroying the other's future.

Is strong YEN bad ? nope, Corporate Japan now is deploying their strong YEN overseas buying up companies, expanding overseas plant one more time. Overseas are now cheap in YEN terms. Hence this YEN bottom at around 83 is a farce. Ms Watanabe would be burnt selling YEN.

Now back to Bernanke, Geithner and Bernanke have defined a bottow at 1040. Unlike the bottom at 666, the followthrough was not strong. The retails are locked up in Assets. Only institutions are buying. Hedge funds are pretty tired now.
By the way, 1040 means nothing. The behaviour of the FED may emerge as a election topic.

Was watching a movie: The Repoman. If America defaults after a QE2, who is going after Bernanke and Geithner. Besides the REPOMAN, Crude and Gold waiting on the aisle. So am I. and hence my 3 letters word.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

27 FED lovefest update: August Matrix Revolution -> the war is over

Matrix Revolution is the last of the Matrix Trilogy.
Neil won over Mr Smith. At the end, Mr Smith uttered: everything that has a beginning has and end.
Then the people in Zion cheered: "the war is over, the machine has retreated".

Yes, now Dow at 10111. S&P at 1060. Nasdaq at 2143
That is it. The robots would be shut. The war is over.

what everybody is waiting in September is starting now.

Time for lunch.

Pls leave a message if you agree with my vision.

Friday, August 27, 2010

27 Aug Charles Nennar

Charles Nennar video on front page of bloomberg blog, predicting 5000 in the next 2 years. You know another short squeeze coming.
The market is essentially deleveraging sideways, sucking in thinner and thinner volumes of bulls and bears. Another short squeeze and then profit taking and down through 1000 before Labour Day holiday.

Back in 2000-2003, then the US market collapses, there were Asians who went to US and buy up houses. Most notable was a HK XXX actress who married a cripple in US, they amass lots of houses and sold them back in 2005-2007 for a fortune.

Similarly, in 2009, 2010, there were also a lot of bargain hunters, notably Chinese from China who brought their wealth out of China and bought houses everywhere, in HK, US, UK.

If there is another leg of housing downwards, a lot of housing investors would be sitting on massive losses. The corporates may have large cash hoardes. But when their even larger investments collapses, the cash would be drained.

The next leg would be a Currency crisis, and that is what Bernanke is most unwilling to unleash QE2. What if a QE2 did not jolt the economy but brings about a flee from USD ?

Meanwhile furor over the killing of 8 HK tourist in Philippine hostage taking crisis is now subsiding.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

25 August Hong Konger killed in Manila hostage crisis "东亚病夫".


In Asia, the most crippling thing is now the 9 Hong Kongers who are killed in Manila hostage crisis.

There is nothing much to see in Metro Manila, except the slums and some monuments. Bored Hong Kong families, who are not beach goers, decide to visit the capital of Philippine. And got killed by the kidnapper in a bus, amidst the storming by the Manila police.

After the event, Philippinos are trivalising the events. Possibly the maids in Hong Kong are murmurring their Hong Kong employers deserve it.

However during the crisis, we see the true human spirits of selflessness: a hostage who was let go, claiming another kid of another families to be her kid, husband throwing himself into the rain of bullets to protect the wife.

For me, a call for a total tourist boycott of Philippine worldwide, in the name of safe tourism. For those of you out there, probably you want a safe holiday in future wherever you go.

It is back to Homes again. In America, the adult children can always go back and stay with their parents, when they are jobless. They can always enlarge the house into the yards. In Asia, most people stay in high rise units, chickencoops per se. Expansion is not an option, hence there is a floor to the house prices. In America, house prices can just keep going down.

Bernanke had chosen to save the Bankers and not the home owners. Hence the mortgage crisis is not solved. And the Bankers have taken their profits, through their stocks or bonuses. So the Bankers have no obligation to support their companies stock price, or rather let it fall and buy on the cheap again.

As big monies are waiting to buy, the drop cannot be the sharp as well. Hence this meandering market.

So market is waiting for QE2 Big time, or black swan event (Madrid fault, St Andreas fault, another Katrina, etc).

Spoke with a friend, who is a IT worker, bought 5 lots LVS at 2 and sold at 26. Simple guy, no frills, who does not watch bloomberg nor CNBC, took profit and never in the market again. Sometimes talking to a simple investor is better than listening to those talking heads on national TV. Remember Mrs Watanabe who beat the Yen bank traders ?

Now the market is waiting for Geithner and Bernanke at 1010. Would they be so cruel to destroy Obama presidency ? (by the way, Bernanke is Republican's Trojan horse) If Black Obama fails, Hilary and Joe "Bit-Me" would take center stage in the next 2 years. Probably, the senior Democrats are planning as such after Obamam strong backer Ted Kennedy had bitten the dust. BTW, Obamam healthcare bill is a hidden tax on corporate America. (though I support it, as it is altruistics, pple with medical history can seek insurance without prejudice).

Think GOLD is going for 1320 finally this time.

Latest in:
Japan is going to join Korea military exercise in September, while America may despatch an aircraft carrier into China Yellow Sea. Slowly, China is facing a seige, orchestrated by Hilary, in the name of mature relationship.

It is like your neighbour asking you to uphold a mature relationship, while fucking around with your wife. Amazing.

Meanwhile China is equally helpless when its citizens Hong Konger get killed in hostage crisis, when the police is trivalising the life of its citizens.

There used to be a name for it "东亚病夫" a.k.a. "Eastern Sick Man", made famous when Shanghai was rented out to the seven Western nations including Japan.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

24 August full moon

On this full moon day, Bernanke is having the annual Fed symposium lovefest, with economists, debating about to hike or not to hike.

the answer is obvious: no hiking. to drive home the point, no harm dropping the markets a couple of points here and there.

the FED does not know what is happening. Hence the best deal is to stay put. would expect SPX to test 1050 to spook those who clamour for hikes. Geithner would come out and support once 1050 is breached, much like what he did when SPX touches 1010.

Bernanke's unusual uncertainty would definitely be as well remembered as Alan irrational exuberance.

If the FED does not know what is happening, it is quite pointless to listen to those talking heads on national TV.

Some Asian governments have been out in the market with their proxies supporting the indices, buying up seldom traded heavyweights using tax-payers monies.

Talks of UFO have subsided. I watched the movie "The Hole in 3D" last evening. In the HOLE, everybody's fear comes true. In 2010 we got HOLE, in 2009 we got UP.

Meanwhile holes popping up everywhere in and near cities. though no skyscrappers have falled through a hole yet.

USDJPY heading for record low at about 80, now at 83++.
Euro well supported by a robust Germany. GOLD sold off 13 dollars, though eager buyers from Asia await at lower prices.

Friday, August 20, 2010

19 Aug 2 days from Israel dateline to bomb Iran

2 more days to go, before it is a no return for Iran's race to enrich plutonium.

Meanwhile is the drop in SPX for real ? or just to suck in inevitable enventual buyers in short squeeze ?

HK Li Kah Shing pours monies to buy up land parcel for development at record high prices.

Spoke with the bank clerk at the bank, she is long Blue chips waiting for Dividend if the stock never rises.

A Casino in Singapore report monthly earning on 60million, on extending extended credit to diehard gamblers, gambler 26million in debt at Casino and wanna sue Casino.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

13 August Bad Friday

13 August is Friday the 13th. The Chinese calender has entered into the seventh month, the month when hell gate is open, and hungry ghosts wander for food.

I attended a religious seminar last evening, the topics was "Hell" from a cultural and historical evolution in the Chinese Taoist culture. Essentially when one pass away, one goes through 10 Gods. And there are different level of hell depending on the graveness of your sin.

One participant asks: Does ghost work in Hell like we human does on Earth ? The Professor replied that there is no work in Hell, but punishment.

Ok, that means Adam Smith's "invisible hand" does not work in Hell. Keynesian economics does not work in Hell.

And the earthly principle of Yin and Yang rules. For everything that Bernanke does, there is the opposite effect. and it is fast catching up.

Chinese Yuan has a big depreciation today, while most people are expecting an appreciation. Most western funds are locked in China waiting for appreciation.
And the Chinese government is afraid of appreciating its currency too much that the Western funds may take profit and flee. These Western funds are the proverbial side monies held up in the corporates.

It is going to be an interesting month. Am waiting for the PIMCO El something... to come out again on CNBC to spook the market. Dow had a 1000 points plunge after he spoke.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

3 Aug Daylight

my USO, UNG going to see daylight.
SPX rally towards 1200. consider this a breakout. Crude towards 90.

As Greenspan said yesterday in CNBC "meet the press", he suggests FED supporting the stock market to spur economic growth.

Euro on its way back to 1.4000 soon. Euro bear massive short squeeze coming after consolidation at 1.3000. Another GOLD short squeeze coming at 1200, those who shorted at 1200 would get burnt. Target 1320 at least.

USD index to 76 before it pauses. This is going to continue to Labour Day.


Sunday, August 1, 2010

1 August the day before disclosure


when the world is facing floods, extreme heat, now talks of Planet-X, UFO, emerges.

While Mid-Term approaches, this is going to be the MID-TERM that is going to attract record attention. This mid-term would change the world in years to come.

Obama is definitely the bull eye. So far the Republicans have been quiet, except the Wikileak, Republican's appointee Gates and Bernanke. Are Gates and Bernanke trojan horse in Obama administration. Is the Wikileak choreographed by the military to undermine Obama administration, discredit his Afghanisatan policy ?

Would Israel attack Iran during the mid-term to take advantage of US incapability to react ?

Would Obama be foreced to disclose Alien presence after the mid-term ?

Thursday, July 29, 2010

29 July and then.......

watching this SPX bobbing up and down, and then....

I just hope that my GOLD would bounce from here, 1150 is like the dividing line between the next top and another test of 1000.

Monday, July 26, 2010

26 July Calling on heavy's door

now SPX knocking on 1111.
Bernanke asking for passage to heaven.

lots of funds piling in to fullfil their purpose in life.

26 July Bear Care

another short drop and another bear squeeze.

26 July Trade ideas

So over the weekend, Geithner rules out a Double Dip.
and Clinton was barking at the ASEAN summit in Vietnam talking about the Spratlys island, claimed by China, Vietnam, Philippine, etc.
North Korea threatened Nuclear attack if violated.

Trading wise, expect a range with bias to the upside. we are in delicate balance, not inflation, deflation as Martin Feldstein has written recently.

The Asian markets have been bouncing up and down, not making any headways.

this balance would not hold for long. It would probably gives before November midterm, but not earlier.

Time for the big boys to place bets. For me, I prefer an inflationary scenario, led by Food, Crude in 4th Qtr.

Dams broke in Iowa, 3rd and 4th Quater would be fraught with natural disasters.
The earth crust has been unusually active. So far no damage to any major cities that would create headlines.
We can count the Madrid Fault, the St Andreas Fault, Japan Tokai, Indonesia Sumatra as likely events.

Anything can happen.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

24 July how to know it is a Bull

Today, I passed by Meryll Lynch office and it has a big bronze statue outside its office. It tells me it is a Bull because it has a penis and 2 balls.

Is this rally a real bull, do you see the penis and 2 balls ?

Now DPRK is threatening a sacred war against US and South Korea. It has lost all its credibility. And now its threat is not on front pages.

Meanwhile, Chinese Yuan making headway in the international market, making swaps agreements with different governments in Asia. The speed of moving away from USD based trade is hastening. USD is on its next leg of incessant drop, when needs for USD as a trading medium is diminishing, hence its demand drops while supply is every increasing with Bernanke printing machine.

Have to apologise, Bernanke said "unusually uncertain" not highly uncertain. The last event that was intriguing to Bernanke was the inverted yield curve. He explained it as a sign of increase demand by China of US treasuries, hence depressing long term yields.

To me it is most obvious, we would move soon into a Hyperinflationary environment. Food prices would lead higher this winter, and then Crude, Commodities to follow. If QE2 is to happen, then Crude would easily breach 80 towards 100. QE1 happened when Crude was at 30.

Nowadays I watch RT Russia Times, instead of CNBC, Bloomberg. This afternoon RT shows throngs of Americans (mostly Blacks, Hispanics) queueing for mortgage help. The Obama mortgage help program has only helped the banks, not the people.

Hence the abandance of liquidity injected by Obama has gone to the banksters, friends of Bernanke and Geithner, not to mention Dodd and Frank.

Real Americans should boycott National TV for not showing real news, the truth.

In Europe, we see heat, in China we see floods. What would we expect in Winter ? We would see artic-like weather in China and Europe. Think the earth is moving into little ice age.

China 3 gorges dam is under severe stress, with the Cocson and Chantu typhoons happening now, and more to come in next several weeks. It would be an interesting watch like the Gulf of Mexico oil spills.
What would happen next in the world.

Meanwhile, SPX on its march towards 1111, where Bernanke meets GOD. Bernanke going to tell GOD, he is the Demi-GOD on Earth.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

22 July Floods, Cold, H1N1

yes, you read it first here. There is an re-emergence of H1N1 as we near the colder seasons in Northern Hemisphere.
The Swine flu has morphed in pigs, with the flood, the transmission to humans would speed up in Autumn. Erupting first in China, followed by India.
2 of the world most populous nations awash in a mutated H1N1 strain, higher transmission, higher fatality.

Over teabreak, overheard some insurance agents talking about the recent flash floods in Singapore. Homeowners whose properties are in the millions got swamped by floods. However they have only paid for FIRE insurance, and now wanting to claim for FLOOD.

and the eminent Minister Lee Kuan Yew (who is visibly getting weaker) has said "no amount of engineering can stop the flood". It is essentially an act of GOD. Am sure those people sitting on million dollar properties ain't pleased.

Singapore has reached its saturation point in growth. now with most skyscrappers on reclaimed land, and a incessant supplies of office space and residential space in coming years, an entire bay converted into reservoir. And with the rising sea levels, it would be interesting in the coming years, as we get nearer to poleshift.

In Singapore, the Equities market is so quiet that the stock exchange want to abolish the Lunch Break. the high frequency traders have not taken root here, noting that Singapre stock market is the strongest in the south east Asia region. and Singapore GDP has skyrocketed to 14% last quarter, stronger than China. However the indices hardly move.

Good GDP, bad GDP,market hardly moves.

the market would stay still longer than we stay liquid.

Meanwhile, Bernanke has coined a new phrase: "Highly Uncertain". If the FED is highly uncertain, which Banks out there can be certain.

Obama has said: "no more tax funded bailout for Banks".

Can we take it that the Billionaires, Private Equities, the likes of Blankfein, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, John Paulson would fund the next bailout ?

Though I have been blasting Obama, he has his saving graces:
Insurance companies cannot reject those who have medical histories.
Banks and credit cards companies cannot charge captive interest rates

The cost to the Financial sector is going to go up in future, making monies from the public would be more difficult.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

21 July another rally

as I spoke last week, another opportunity would come for some short term trading, yesterday low at about 1050 was a good place to load up for another attempt to 1111 (my mid term target for this correction).

Most likely Bernanke would give some hints of QE2, and this would spur GOLD to 1300,
and Crude to 90. I have to declare that I am long USO and Gold.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

20 July Goldman Sachs

GS is rising, seems to tell market it has survived the SEC. With civil litigations to follow, GS would defnitely be busy. Short term buy.

Same for BP, short term buy to ride the rally while the others are falling.

China market seems to be rebounding. Think the market maker trying to shift attention to Asia, selling a Decoupling story. Think we would hear of talks of Decoupling while Asia market is holdig there.

Meanwhile some of the Asian ETF are in a wedge formation on daily chart. either breaking up or down.

For GOLD spot, the last high was not confirmed showing bearish divergence. That is about what those professional traders or positioned, short GOLD. That also means that way to make monies is up. If somebody can ram it and fabricate some news. Watched Keiser report today, Max was talking about Fait currency.

APPL earnings coming up. Think this would about wrap up the earnings though we have more coming next week.
IBM did not make it, while INTL did, where did all the chips went ? into the sea ?
Fishy INTEL.
That also means lots of excess inventories now in the market.

With extended benefits, more defit spending by Obama. The direction of USD is clear.