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Monday, November 30, 2009

31 Nov Dubai, Asia banks and Bernanke

BoA published a research paper with breakdowns of creditors of Dubai World, counting among them of course, Citibank, and also Asian banks, e.g. HSBC in China Tianjin branch, Singapore DBS, OCBC, UOB, and StandardChartered, of course (who has a large shareholder, the Singapore SWF Tamesek).

Anectodal sources that companies engaged in infrastructure, buildings, utilities projects in Dubai has faced late payment from their Dubai customers. Cashflow problems is evident in Dubai companies. Also lots of expatriates left Dubai, leaving their apartments empty, car left at airport, credit card bills unpaid.

The whole Dubai banking and credit business is full of venom. Dubai would draw funds much needed elsewhere, and allow the venom to spread

Suspect that the SWF would move in to support the Asia markets. Giving wary moms and pops a chance to cash out. (as once a trading guru said, God is merciful, it always gives you a second chance). Sometimes you do find some ordinary investors trading on gut feels make more monies than the sophiscated traders.

Bernanke would be facing his nemisis on 3 Dec (Thursday), with questions on BoA Kent Lewis raised once more. Obama may as well let go a controversial Fed Chairman than to have Bernanke as his burden for mid-term election. In fact sacrificing Bernanke can garner some votes and cheers from the public tired of these Bankers bonus spree.

Now, would Bernanke leaves in calm or he leaves a wreck ?

Sunday, November 29, 2009

29 Nov Asia Monday

am expected a up day for Asia, and subsequently US Monday. incase some of you bears get so carried away with the Dubai thing.
(it falls into a pattern, up Monday, distribution for the whole of Tuesday to Friday).

Pimpco El Elrian and Templeton Mark Mobius are calling for correction, though.

Things are really bad in Dubai, however liquidity is in abundance. Abu Dhabi has all the monies from its Oil trade. However, this also means the next shoe to fall would be these other Sovereign Wealth Fund (Abu Dhabi, Norwegian pension, Temasek, etc). The market is the most efficient Deleveraging instrument.

Further out, Equities would tumble and monies flow into Crude and Commodities. Dec, Jan and Feb would be the month of Commodities, with Crude reaching into 110. These would be an oil shock that last the world through 2010.

Not to mention Alien versus Predator, the almagamation of H1N1 and H5N1, coming to a theatre near you.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

29 November H1N1 mutation and Vacinne


H1N1 has mutated, it took WHO 1 week late to report when Dr Nyman has the happening forecasted. Now WHO has also confirmed that the vaccine does not work on the mutated H1N1 (D225G). And WHO claim that it is insignificant and not worthy of reporting.

That is what happened when a politician from HK is elected to lead the WHO. WHO needs real scientist with a moral conscience.

Essentially we can write off the current vaccine. New ones need to be discovered urgently to fight the D225G.

Meanwhile Bernanke issued a article in Washington Post retaliating against those waging the "Audit the FED" bill.

My forecast, Equities would tumble and monies flow into Crude, Commodities for the last hooray. Euro to push upward. Yen to breach 80.

28 November Dubai and the world at large

Into the 2007 boom years, the world was building like mad, e.g. the palm-tree resort Nakheel, World tallest building in Dubai, and a lot of other countries are building massive resorts, e.g. in Las Vegas, Singapore (Sentosa Cove). The units on these massive resorts were sold to the rich on leverage, at ridiculous prices.

Now we see consumers, buyers of those prime properties walking away, not honouring their debt to the developers. Next, the developers would have to contemplate walking away from their Banks.

Again, it is Deja Vu again, when the next down move gets kicked off with the Banks. However this is not the achilles ankle of the current Bear Market Rally.

There are other concerns: H1N1 merging with H5N1 to lead to a worldwide slowdown of air traffic. H1N1 is now confirmed to mutate. Combination with H5N1 (possibly starting in China/Hong Kong, would lead to the next crest in the pandemic).

Also with the world climate talks now making progress, nations would be curbing their industrial productions and petrol consumptions.

All these factors would contribute to a sluggish economy, if not a contracting one. Hence the market has the choice of rapidly reflecting the new realities or slowly meander downwards while catching new bulls and bears alike.

Currently, we are seeing the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade, with Yen at decades low around 85.

Next we would see the unwinding of the USD Carry Trade.

Bernanke nomination hearing is coming next month, and the FED Jobs Summit and NFP due next Friday. December is going to be a decisive month.

How the indices would close on Monday, would matter if we see a spinning top/southern star on a monthly chart.

Also after Thanxgiving, the bill relating to Audit the FED would be up for vote. Time to find out what skeletons Bernanke and Alan has kept in the closets. One most concern is that American Gold has been swapped out to other institutions. I.e. American Gold is gone.

Bernie has now to buy back the GOLD from open market. Leading to a crisis of sort at the FED.

That explains why other than India, Sri Lanka, the US is buying Gold as well.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

26 Nov interim top

interim top for Euro at 1.5145. profit taking on thanxgiving day.
1.5500 to be next.
According to the rising channel in Euro, it should goto 1.5200, support at 1.4800 around the 50 days moving average. To be conservative, buy on dips.
Otherwise upward trendline support at 1.4600.

Gold has not completed its bull trend, more to come. Top at 1195, gap at 1154. A 40 dollar correction would be good.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

24 Nov Sheila Bair

market made a down swoop while Sheila Bair spoke. GDP 3rd Qtr came in at 2.8 vs original 3.5.

Sheila Bair said 4thQtr traditional weak for Banks, expect some deterioration. However she would not read too much into 4th Qtr results.

Nonetheless Gold still has another leg up. another buying opportunity, same goes for SPX.

Would update here when the right buying moment comes. If SPX breaks 1090, more weakenes into 1080.

24 Nov the World in a hurry

yap, everything is in a hurry towards year end.

H1N1 mutations start appearing in clusters, it would soon be apparent to the world that next yr would be the year of mutated H1N1 and the grand finale of H5N1+H1N1.

Meanwhile LHC have success and ramping up for the collisions of 2 opposing beams.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

21 Nov Audit the FED / H1N1 / LHC


Finally the greatest PONZI scheme in human history would be revealed to the world. Probably Timmy and Benny fleeing the country soon. Their puffy backside is definitely delicious.

WHO finally releases the H1N1 sequence of the dead victims in Ukraine. Mutation has happened. Though it does not seem like a pervasive spread of the new mutant. More like spontaneous change.

The new mutant causes Cykotine storm, destroying the lungs completely.

Soon the mutants would take root and start spreading.

Trying to get a hand on the Large Hadron Collider start date.


finally found it, the LHC has been turned on Wednesday, 18 Nov 2009.and the beam would be sped up and then make opposite beams crash for the BIG BANG. Awaiting the BIG BANG date.

now watching the movie "The Polar Storm".

Sunday, November 15, 2009

15 Nov Alien vs Predator


read it yourself, when the pig meets the bird.

15 Nov APEC vs US vs China Flashforwad

US and China has a spat APEC. A statement on flexible currency agreed at the meetings of Finance ministers is dropped from the final communique. As China and US could not agree on the final wordings.

There are four groups of countries there: US, China, the Asean countries and the resources rich country: Russia, Brazil and Australia.

Russia, Brazil and Australia has seen their currencies rallying due to inflow of hot monies. People buying more Aussie to enjoy the capital and interest rate. (Brazil has to impose capital gain tax).

Asean countries fighting with exports, when their currencies rally and making their exports more expensive compared to US and China.

Asean countries (with Singapore in lead) would like to see a more expensive Yuan, hence towing US along in its call for more flexible (more expensive) Yuan.

Would the emerging economies, Aseans countries get what they want ? a more expensive Yuan ?
If China refuses to budge, the only way for a more expensive Yuan would be a more expensive USD.
As the media has been hyping the link of Equities to a dropping USD.
We may have a drop in Equities while USD rallies, and a weaker Asean currencies when monies take profit and flees the Asean countries.

The intent has been clear, though not mentioned in the communique.

Obama would be in China in next 2 days, he promised he would bring up the Currency issue to please his constituents. Would China be mad ? and dump treasuries ?

Deep undercurrents, Equities is especially vulnerable. Would be see a sharp turnaround for USD, or is the the turning point for USD ?

Marc Faber this week mentioned buying Asian currencies, e.g. SGD. I sat up and started to think.

Would a rising USD trigger the next Asia Financial Crisis ? Elliot alternate theory. The crisis would not repeat in the same style the same place. Instead of a same US Banking crisis, the crisis would be in another place.

Asia is especially vulnerable now, when most countries have borrowed to fund its current fiscal stimulus. Would China be dragged into this crisis, when it was untouched in the last financial crisis in 1997.

Market works in mysterious ways. The APEC host has been working very hard to get everyone to agree to promise to extend the stimulus plan, hoping that confidence would lead to growth. Perhaps someone believes he can change the future single handedly. However when ordinary folks are led to believe and when disppointed, they would be angry. Unless you have the power of Nostradamus, one should not overpromise its people.

Have you seen the future ?

Saturday, November 14, 2009

14 Nov Friday 13th pass and gone

nothing happened, another up day.
WHO still holding back the Sequence at Ukraine.
SPX rally from support.
Surveyed most blogs, Daneric, Michael Vadon, Calfutia, all expecting the 4th of 5th up has been done, now in the midst of a 5th of 5th upto 1111-1120.

From current level 1095, another 15 to 20 points "guaranteed",
if 1120 broken, we may have a run into 1200.

Though the drop of USD has slowed, it is still dropping nonetheless.

Gold seems as sure to break recent high at 1123 on its confirmed march into 1300. Now in newspaper, 1300 is like the surest bet in the market.

Sellers are few, buyers are few but steadiliy streaminng in, due to late funds buying before yr end.

USD latest low at 74.77. Bernanke is now sponsoring the next Carry Trade, like what the Japanese did in the past years.

Friday, November 13, 2009

13 Nov TGIF13

Gary Locker, US Commerce Secretary being interviewed by a Bloomberg anayst who wears her bra outside on live TV.
Gary says all this trade spats part of international trade. I.e. all these trade spats are small portion of the overall trade.
This should help the USD.

Would we see a mini-crash today ? Like a 5-6% drop on SPX ??

Meanwhile, Gold spot reached low of 1101. Today would be about the battle of 1100. It should intensify over Eurpoe open, sucking mom and pop buying in Asia hours.

2012 is now in a theatre nearby you.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

12 Nov APEC

SPX at a critical juncture.The Trinity Cross, which is in the vacinity of 1103, though I personally prefer 1111.

Target of breakout at 1123 reached. Retest of neckline at 1108 and goes higher ?

APEC become a big propanganda machine, trying to psycho the world to believe World Trade would save the world,

on 5 mins chart 1123 seems like the top meanwhile.
DXY seems like near a bottom.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

8 Nov 2012

yes, 2012 would day view in US on 13 Nov. a Friday (a Friday 13 thingy). and I wish SPX at 1111 on 11-13-09.
11-11-09 is a holiday, unfortunately.

This would send a signal so strong that it reverberates the globe for the next few year.


7 Nov Obama Healthcare

Kudos to Obama for having clinched the House Healthcare vote. The next job would be for the House and Senate to reconcile their plans for a final plan.

It is humane plan. It allows those with pre-existing condition to get insured. and those with pre-existing condition would not get exhorbitant rates.

However it is going to be burden on business to provide healthcare for every workers. and insurance has more restrictions, though they get millions more new customers.

Would see SPX trying to inch higher into 1090, not surprising to see 1100. However probably everyone is expecting the same. We may get a surprise.

Meanwhile the media has not caught on the Ukraine mutation, giving sufficient time for the smart monies to prepare.

When every stakeholder is ready, WHO would announce mutations. Effectively rendering the current stockpile of vaccines useless.

However some dismiss this as fear mongery, some claim it is Pneumonic Plague in Ukraine (Black Death) and not H1N1.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

6 Nov India, Ukraine. Bilderberg plan.

Dalai Lama is visiting the Border of China and India, which used to be the place of war. AND India bought a massive 200t of Gold from IMF.
Coincidence ?

Fort Hood incident reveal US is slowly cracking. The shift of power is accelerating. Think Obama would scale down US involvement in Afghanistan.

UAE is now developing nuclear reactors. Soon, it would be Saudi's turn, and we have a Nuclear middle-east in no time.

Ukraine has confirmed mutation though WHO is not admitting.The samples were taken by WHO to UK for sampling.

The deputy health minister of Ukraine announced that there is a new strain: an European strain.

WHO is accused of withholding the sequence of the strain sent for testing in UK.

Ukraine has 93 or more fatality in a week. Half a million new cases in 6 days.
Now it is 135 fatalities as of 7 Nov. (amazing)

Soon Ukraine nationals would be fleeing its borders into Polan, Russia and rest of Europe.

Bulgaria is coming up next. The immortal prince Dracula would be hunting for those corpse with blood filled lungs.

Another point of view by ex-Finland Health minister.

1976 vaccination led to long term problems, like brain tumor, etc.

Mention of Kissinger proposal at Bilderberg meeting at Hellas to eliminate earth population by 2/3.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

31 Oct Ukraine outbreak

H1N1 has mutated into a fatal strain.

the current market drop started around Galleon case, when the Galleon fund sold its holdings, effectively being the first Fund to take profit and spoil the game. Probably everybody was gaming for 1200.

current reading, most blogs said oversold, expecting a rebound. Traders on national TV said range trading between 1020 and 1090 for coming week.

And then we have the Cheerleader FOMC on Wednesday. Would Bernanke announce another bout of purchase ?

I keep picking up commentaries of October crash. Another short squeeze coming ?

Firstly somebody trying to setup a short squeeze. However may get itself burned, b├žos larger events, like the H1N1 is not helping.

However a continous drop would also be a surprise, as everybody has been so optimistics, and Geithner says another crisis is not likely.

My preferred scenario is for Equity drop, Crude, Gold to rally. The Friday India petroleum plant fire does help in reducing stockpile.