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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

20 Oct Crude

Crude cup and handle target 115 and 120, the world would once again have an Oil Shock, when CFTC, FED seems to be helpless against this. and USD dives to sub 70.
we are seeing Crude breaks out after 4 months of consolidation.

Euro probably powering towards 1.55-1.6000, it would be interesting to watch SPX, if it goes to 1300.

Hence the question is: Would Crude stop at 85 and Gold stop at 1084 ? while SPX tops out as well ?

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Iwo Jima: Wait till the beach is full

The Japanese commander defending Iwo Jima against the US forces landing, waited till the beach was full of US soldiers, then ordered the firing.

Yes, wait till all the bulls are on the beach.

Daneric is bearish, the top has reached for him.

For me the top is yet to come. Watch crude, if crude does not turn back at 78, it has big implication. Basically Bernanke has lost control. The game has turned on him.
Expect more jawboning from Bernanke next week when he speaks.

if Crude breaks 78, then 85 and then 100, despite the abundance of supplies, or tanker storage out there. GOLD may just break its limit at 1070, 1085, and shoot for 1120, 1300. Euro shoot for 1.6000, while DXY heads for 73, then 70.

As for Equities, highly uncertain.

Let us see how Bernanke panic. Now, who would bailout the FED ? FDIC ?

Friday, October 16, 2009

16 Oct This is it.

it is near. the answer to the top would seem like so obvious.

personally, I hope Gold spot would reach new hight at 1084. However dun put all the bets on it, as 1070 may just be the interim top.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

14 Oct Gold top at 1070 / California Earthquake

after reaching 1070 Gold retreated, Euro from 1.4920, Crude from 75.

would this signal the top of SPX, future hit 1083 though.

Equities retreat while still in midst of Earnings. JP Morgan earnings blew off.

Courtesy of http://www.quakecentralforecasting.com/lowellsblog.html

Events of M>=6 in the State tend to concentrate in the Spring and Fall months. Of the 224 earthquakes recorded over the past 200 years in California of M>=6 46 have occurred in April or May and 49 in October and November. The most active periods are from April 8 through May 2 and from October 15 through October 29. During the Spring period 25 such earthquakes occurred in these 23 days and in the Fall period 17 such earthquakes occurred in this 14 day period. Statistically, 42 of the 224 earthquakes have occurred in this 37 day frame, 25% of the total. On average 10% of the earthquakes should have occurred in this period so the overall rate is approximately 2.5 times the average for the coming two weeks. The Fall period included events such as the Imperial Valley event of 10-15-1979 (M 7.0); Loma Prieta 10-18-1989 (M 7.3) and So. California on 10-16-1999 (M 7.4). Readers may discern a pattern here. Every ten years with years ending in the digit 9 for the past four decades in mid-October a major earthquake has hit the California area. Given that there has been an increase in seismicity throughout the region and that the distance relations with recent strong and great global earthquakes suggest some triggering in the region and the long period of quiet for the area, residents of California may find this a good time to prepare for a strong earthquake.

If a California Big Earthquake does happen, then GOLD would probably wrestle itself away from the Equities and propel itself into 1100 in short time.

Therefore thus saith the LORD, Behold, I will bring evil upon them, which they shall not be able to escape; and though they shall cry unto me, I will not hearken unto them. Ezekiel 11:11

Sunday, October 11, 2009

11 Oct my birthday Flash Forward

My birthday falls on 16 Oct. Wedding anniversary on 15 Oct.
Back in 2007, on my Birthday, I told my Chinese colleagues, that something bad is going to happen to the market. Did not realise later that the top of the Shanghai market was then on 16 Oct.

Think the SPX would quiety market the top.
Today I went through the charts and realise why the push up has been incessant. The Final Destination is revealed.

I would show on this site once the target is reached.

There is a lag between the Equities Cycle and the Commodities Cycle. Gold, Crude would top out sometime in Feb/March.

After the Nobel Peace Prize selection committee credibility is decimated, Obama goes ahead and allow Gays to be upfront on their orientation in the armed forces. Hence possibly encouraging a congregation of gays in the service.

Wow !!! look at the work of the AntiChrist, amazing.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

10 Oct Inflation or Hyperinflation

Interestingly, after Glenn Stevens raised Aussie rate, the market suddenly come to the knowledge that Inflation is back.

hence it becomes clear, the story.
Deflation -> Inflation, high inflation -> deflation and depression.

This story would play out over the course of 15 years with oscillation in between.

Went to the bank, bank tellers were saying people were buying stocks, Citibank, and folks were profit taking on 1000 dollar Gold in past week.

FED stance has not changed any bit since Bernanke talk, but some seem to seize on his dovish comment on taking action when recovery comes.

Hence the market ticker guy has revealed FED secretly monetizing its debt, while the Treasury going on TV denying any monetization and re-asserting the STRONG DOLLAR stance.

Asian Central Banks were forced to cap their currencies rises this week, by buying Dollars, selling domestic currency. Essentially the Asia Central Banks are exchanging their own jewels for junks.

While China Yuan is pegged to USD fall. Trade friction intensifies between China and US, and these takes a while to play out.

Trades associations have been pressing Obama to declare China as a Currency Manipulator. It is not clear if Obama has decided to meet Dalai Lama.

Meanwhile, some commentators are expecting a top in GOLD at 1050 to 1070.

More soldiers would be sent to Afganistan at the order of the "Man of Peace". In fact a doubling of soldiers not seen during the Vietnam or Iraq war. There would be more and more Drone Attacks on civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan. AND he destroys as the "Man of Peace".

Update 11:40 am ET------------------
if Euro breaks out from 1.4864, or sustain above 1.4900, then the eventual target is 1.7400, almost ridiculous, but real.
18% gain from here. similarly for Gold to 1300.
Crude to likely break into 90 to 100.

Dun know how would world economy reacts to a 100 dollar oil once more.

Friday, October 9, 2009

9 Oct Man of Peace, the AntiChrist

He will ascend to power on a platform of peace. By peace, he will destroy many - Daniel 8:25

and now Obama has gotten the Nobel Peace Prize.

The trade war between China and US intensifies. It is left out from much of the Bloomberg or CNBC. The new product of concern is steel pipes.

Dollar is hopeless, should continue down after this seemingly consolidation. Euro should head towards 1.5000. GBP towards 1.8000. USDJPY should break the floor at 87.

Crude would rise quickly towards 85 and 90. (almost forgot, I still got some USO, UNG to sell).

Gold of course towards the long awaited target.

Bernanke is now getting cold feet.
Equities would continue its slow climb. Still waiting to sell my ETF and Shanghai H shares.

Meanwhile, NASA plunged a space craft onto moon surface to probe water. Ominous.

Am checking when the Large Hydron Collider is starting.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

6 October State of the Market

the forex and equities market is at critical juncture, however there are not any important events to sway it either way.
hence the market markets swing it either way to throw off the Bull and Bear. most notable would be the Forex with it sharp swings either way.

Hence: scalp if not stay out of the market.