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Sunday, September 27, 2009

27 Sept TALF



Would this spur markets ? let watch Asia Monday.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

26 September Bull Trap or Bear Trap

I am tempted to go long GS at 180 on Friday late hours. however due to my fumbling, I did not.

SPX holds above 1039, the trendline support, and the target of the Double Top of SPY. Good place to take profit for shorts, for long, not so sure.

If Asia we see a weak closing on Monday (or a drop of 3-5% on Asia equities), then the break of 1039 is nailed. Otherwise, 1041 would be the bottom of the current fall and a Gap up for another leg up towards 1080-1110.

I tend to believe the support in GOLD at 970. Would RIMM be a good play up ?

GS was leading the drop on Friday, before the Indices reacted.

Yamamda has spoken on Bloomberg Radio again, good to hear her, for long term view.

IF DXY is not able to break up from current level, then we have another leg down into 74 then 70. As the safe haven currency is now JPY.

Mizuho and Japanese banks now selling Equities to raise Yen, think the new Japan government would not be so generous with financial prop.

One thing is for sure, there would be flood of SHARES in the market, while CASH is hard sought after, and CASH to buy GOLD.

Bernanke can bluff some people some of the time, but not all people all the time.

Think people would be rushing for the exits or choose to wait for a good exit until they found none.

Friday, September 25, 2009

25 September Pay the piper


As the chairman of the Tiger Fund, the wise old man Julian say yesterday, the Piper has to be paid somehow.
It is a matter of conscience if Bernanke wants to pump it so high that it would hurt the unknowing ordinary folks.

As for myself, I am still long some Shanghai H shares and long-term ETF US in modern energy. However would like to cash them out and keep the poweder dry.
Hence I am looking for another high into 1110, while the current drop concludes around 1035. The market would reveal to you once it has reached a interim bottom, no need to buy into a falling knife.

The next wave would be the collapse of Sovereign Wealth Funds/ Government Institutions. SWF essentially are the custodians of the blood monies of the nation. However the nation has gone on budget deficits, weakening the SWF. Middleeast SWF would likely take the first hit. Some of them have entered into ventures abroad and now redeeming their stakes at 1/5 of their original investments.
With the coming collapse of Crude oil prices (as long as OPEC does not open up their reserves for audit, PEAK OIL is a fad). PLUS CFTC limits on speculation. 20 dollar oil is possible.

China HU JinTao has pledged at the UN Conference with specific targets and dates on cutting down pollution. Implying the industrial production capacity of China would undergo restructuring, with thousands of inefficient steel mills going away. China ministries have called for a halt to capacity expansion. Notably the state-owned banks have called for a stop to the increase of bank branches. China is smart to curtail its production capacity to tune to its internal consumptions. Otherwise they run the risks of the collapse of their regime.

Unlike US Obama who has not made any pledge on pollution control, other than the vehement campaign to have a Carbon Credit exchange (brainchild of the SQUID aka GS).
The Europeans are very disappointed.

The purpose of Timmy, Bernanke pumping up the market is to let the elites/families to cash out of their long positions. Their purpose is definitely not to save the world. When the elites get back their monies, they would let the market crash once more to deleverage the liquidity. Hence you have all these Paul Volcker, audit the Fed talk.
Question now is whether the corporate CEOs have taken the hint with the first shot across the bow with RIMM result.
Very soon, Atlas would walk away, on a sail on yatch with dozens Heidi look-alike to the Carribean.
Imagine, the world without a Bubble Machine, is like you guys going to work everyday, knowing you would not be paid for the day.

HR 1207 is going to be passed by Congress, and Ron Paul would effectively have his hand in Bernanke jar.
Now like the robber who is trying to sell his loot before the police comes, Bernanke would be in a hurry to get rid of all those purchases from blankfein, diamond.
The mood is changing with public anger spilling onto the streets. and Paul Volcker has spoken about ordely winding up non-bank financial institutions on Thursday.

An interesting side topic. The Singapore SWF was very much in the news that they sold 50% of their stake in Citigroup. The convertible notes into Equities was done at $3.25 and their average selling was at $4 plus. The made billions of profit.

If Citigroup is wiped off, the SWF would still make a loss.

Meanwhile Marc Faber said market may have peaked for 2009, I am worried.

Another side thought:
when GW Bush speaks, nobody really pay attention. (but they watch what US does)
When Obama speaks, everybody knows he is a bluff, and careless what happens next.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

24 September SPX 1035

SPX 1035, first target of this fall. which is the support of the recent uptrend line. For GOLD, it is in the region of 970. now SPX hovering at 1050. DXY first target 77.10, now at 76.60.

Would be see a fall till OCT (wave 4), and another rally into 1110 (Wave 5) to complete this Bear Rally ?

If Charles Lennar is right, OCT we would see the completion of the rally from 666, and then the drop begins (as Daneric call it P3), by December it becomes evident the panic is starting.

Meanwhile, Obama disappoints with no mention of specific pollution cutback targets. While China took the lead and gave specific targets.

While US with its nuclear stockpile rusting is proposing a Nuclear Free world, which unfortunately is not going to bluff those small nations with Nuclear Weapons as their balancer.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

23 September Before FOMC

Daneric bullish, aiming for DXY 74.

Cobra hesistant, quoting 6 positive FED day so far.

Quite pointless fighting the FED. Either stay out or wait for better shorting opportunities at 1110.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

22 September Meredith Whitney spoke

Meredith is asking investors to keep their powder dry. reflecting on the lack of Consumer Credit in the market.
I would rather she speaks more specifically on certain Banks.

I cannot accept that 1.4825 is the top for Euro. I am waiting for 1.5000, dreaming about 1.6000 as well.

22 September 22092009

somebody talk about significance of this date 22092009, I dun see any significance in it.
meanwhile EURO is looking strong, 1.5000 within reach. I.e. this equity drop is a correction towards 1110.

Meanwhile Economist comes out giving GDP prediction of >5% next year. Pretty amazing. Well, we need this type of optimism for a top. Probably to mask the acelerating foreclosures, option ARM reset and corporate bankruptcies.

Tension is in the political circle with Cuomo wanting to prosecute Ken Lewis, with possiblity of implicating Bernanke and Paulson. While Obama trying to talk Paterson into quitting to give the senate seat to Cuomo, hence removing Cuomo from the probe, freeing Bernanke and Paulson eventually.

Dick Chenney did all his moves in the backroom, while Obama plays his card in public view. Sometimes you wonder how good is Rahm Emmanuel.

Euro may just hold 1.4700 for 2 days, with a surge towards 1.5000 on Wednesday afternoon ET.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

19 Sept US Real Estate

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58G5U320090917?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

Option ARMs, the next dropping shoe.

Anyway, JP Morgan released a report saying Real Estates are a good buy. Some went on TV and talk up the market, e.g. saying that a dozen of China Investors are touring America looking for buys.
Ironically, owner of Toll Brothers sold a considerable chunk before the report was released.

As usual, the Chinese are the buyers of last resort.

In Singapore, the property developers and Banks introduce Interest Absorption Scheme (IAS) similar to the US Option ARMs (no installment, no interest till TOP), which came about only early 2009. Hence the Asia properties market has come a full cycle like the US market. the saving grace is that it is not rampant, which may contribute to 10-20% of recent property sales.

As of late, the FBI are investigating Kent Lewis, and also the billions of Bonds seized in Italy/Switzerland crossing.

I keep picking up pple writing about Gold. Think some powerful pple are short at 1000 level and still keeping them. A rise above 1100 would be max pain. Personally looking at 1300.

I guess the IMF annoucement on Friday also serve to help those shorts. It is no new news, it was known months ago.

19 September UUP

picked up quite a lot of talk about USD rally in coming week, e.g. the afterhours spike in UUP (proxy for Bullish USD). Think the market makers doing a setup for a
weaker dollar.

went to checked the charts of e.g. EURJPY, there are some obvious target like 140, current at 134. EURGBP has broken up. and of course the most fuzzy being EURUSD.
I suspect EURUSD may do a dash for 1.5000, or even 1.5500.
All the high Euro is really no good for Europeans MNC, which would reflect lower foreign income. Nonetheless stellar for US companies with a higher overseas earnings.

Hence expect a good 3rd Quarter, through this currency manipulation thing.

The risk is that the top for Equities is already in, and we have a Falling Stock with Falling Dollar. Nonetheless, it may be a phenomemnon of a few weeks.

Earnings in 3 weeks time. As Charles Lennar has said October is time to go defensive, and by December the rally would be over.

My guess:
next week another rally in Equities (after FOMC), with a USD drops towards those Euro targets. SPX to 1100, now at 1070 (easily). ( I believe in the Euro breakout).

Followed by a stronger USD and SPX drops in October.

As for GOLD it would touch 1000 and bouce up for 1050 and 1070. The IMF Gold sales annoucement on Friday may be a false news.(they never sell though they say they intend to).

I now some analyst (e.g. Calfutia, Daneric) are calling for a drop into 1050, 1030 for another rally upwards.

However I believe we are in a blowup phase, and the market makers is working hard to attain the level, rather than shaking off weak long.

Nonetheless next year this time, we would be at most lower levels. If you are short, just invest in it and walk away. Otherwise play small long scalping the market.

If you know that Obama is the Anti-Christ, he has induced this Devil Rally to suck in people monies and eventually rob them of their wealth.

Look on the political fronts, he causes deeper rifts in Americans with his socialist stance. He saves the Bankers not the ordinary people. (his TARP monies could have been given to cut housing mortgages).

He abandoned his allies, Poland, Czechslovakia and decide to stop the anti-missle weapon. It weaken other nations like Georgia, and enlarges Russian influence on the central Europe.

Israel did not listen to Obama and went ahead to enlarge the settlement in West Bank.
Israel dun be surprise that oneday, Obama would change his mind and sell off Israel to Eqypt, Saudi, Jordan.

Iran is very close to weaponising it enriched plutonium (thanx to Russian commercial assistance). Though it is willing to talk, and talk, and talk.

North Korean has learnt to unclanch it fist and pretend talk to buy time to get Iranian knowhow in nuclear technology. Then Myannmar would not be far behind.

By 2010, we would have 3 nuclear capable rogue nations: Iran, North Korea, Myannmar all surrounding China.

Obama has orchestrated the recede of US power, and allowed rogue nations to fill its absense. I suspect his intent is on China.

Meanwhile China is basking in charm iniatives from US and enjoying the limelight of the recognition of a new economic power.

Read an article on how China bank officials and property investors churn loans. Loans of 1 yr tenure get reloaned to a different identification at a higher price, and it rolls up with higher prices. The last genuine buyer would have to pay the price. It is like the Stock Market. In between the bank officials get a cut of cash.

We are in extraorindary time.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

14 September Obama Victory Speech

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html

Idle ships off the Malacca Straits. Excess capacities.

Condos built, no occupants.

This explains why the market rallies. The market need the food for the winter.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

13 Sept Admonish the HOUSE

Bearish:
http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/
Wavetrader spotted XLF, Transport may have started descent, beginning of P3. watching 993 for confirmation.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808
Marice Walker seeing 1048 as a backtest, doji candle.

Bearish
Evil speculator.
See a good short for the Transports. See a rebound in USD.

Unsure:
Daneric not committing anything. see potential top using Wilshire. threaten a 4-5% drop on Obama Victory speech on Monday.

Bullish then bearish
Charles Lennar
Lennar sees rally in this 3 weeks till end September. October dangerous, December ends the bear market rally.

Bullish
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
Sees 1050 then 1120.

Me ?
I see a gap high into 1050, and then drop for 2-3 days for OPEX. Then stabilise for the final stab, would not rule out a capitulation towards 1110 to complete the scam job. TO have capitulations, we need to have a gathering of shorts for the Squeeze. If you are a good scalper, then you can make monies on the next up move. If you have lots of monies, invest a little in shorts (not margin).

Charles Lennar, Pretcher has called the top.
How about Bernanke ? (Question: WHY WOULD BERNANKE ALLOW THE MARKET TO DROP ? Clue: HE WAS NOMINATED BY THE REPUBLICAN)

Courtesy of Currency War. The first shot has been fired over the bow with Rubber Tyres, next Poultry.
Washington march 912 after the Texas Teaparty.
People are getting angry with the cahoots of Bernanke, Geithner, Blankfein, Barney the Dino, Chris Dog, the elite in Ayn Rand "Atlas Shrugged".
Would ATLAS teach the People a lesson or the People teach Atlas a lesson.

If it is start of P3, we are in a historic moment in weeks, admidst a decline lasting 15 years.

Support Joe Wilson
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/12/wilson.fundraising/index.html

America needs to have dignity though it is suffering. Stop the government meddling in citizens private matters, and bleeding Tax Payers monies feeding the Bankers.

Just finished watching the movie "TAKEN" by Liam Neeson, story of Middle-eastern buying American virgins. Guess where the Squids spend their billions ? GOD would catch up with them.

http://www.myfoxaustin.com/dpp/news/politics/dpg_house_joe_wilson_lwf_091109_3458782

The house plans to admonish Joe Wilson next week. We, the people, need to admonish the house.

Quote from:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125258756088899359.html
"The moment the speech ended, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel charged over to three Republicans -- Reps. Ryan, Roy Blunt of Missouri and Kevin McCarthy of California -- demanding in a profanity-laced tirade that they force Mr. Wilson to apologize."
Rahm, the God Father of the Presidency,
Nancy, the God Mother of the Presidency.

13 September Ayn Ryan "Atlas Shrugged"

USD would collapse (at a certain point in future) however US would not necessarily collapse. US would lead in the formation of a new monetary system. The outcome would be the cancellation of US debt, and Gold has a role to play (while US is still the nation with the largest stockpile of Gold). Henceforth the BRIC economies would tumble.

Read Ayn Rand "Atlas Shrugged". You would understand the Design, the Intent of the people in the "Eye of the Pyramid".

China would suffer a jolt when it foreign reserves suddenly disappeared. It has lost its power to fund its stimulus and pay for any USD redemption. The CCP would collapse overnight, with the Chairman, council members, province chief all sent to the gullotine. (that is what keep Preimier Wen JiaoBao awakes at night). The communist are worried about their legitimacy when its coffers are confiscated. RMB would be on its path of demise, reversing decade long appreciation.

China is now at a cross road, should it accelerates its commodities buying program, when prices are rising are bços of its purchase, and excess commodities has led to excess production. (China government is already calling for a halt to steel and car production).
The days are closing in on China when its Treasuries would be confiscated. Then the CCP would have lost its legitmate power to govern. And US would once again claim ownership of China with US led democracy formation.
This is the much touted "Currency War", and so far China is on the losing end.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

12 Sept Mexican Pastor hijacked plane to warn of Earthquake on 9/9/9

http://www.rfi.fr/actuen/articles/117/article_5081.asp

today SPX reached high of 1048.18.
meanwhile slumping to 1040 on a Friday afternoon. Expect a pullback on Monday, Tuesday before OPEX. then another rally amidst FOMC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDaADw2buNgg

Now US and China in tyres disputes. Courtesy of companies like GoodYear who makes tyres in China and export them back to US due to the Cash for Clunkers demand.

Usually when there is Trade Dispute, it is bad for USD.
As Japan Prime Minister wife has claimed she went to Venus kidnapped by UFOs.

All these point to a weakening USD. USDJPY would break 90, last low was 90.20. Expect some support in Asia Monday to suck in buyers.

Whispers on blogs has DXY back to 20. Lowest that I can see on my simple chart program is 70.792, Friday low was 76.457. Now how can I find 20 on the chart ?

Euro on its march (you know what, I almost forgot what is the sybmol for Euro) towards 1.5000. (personal expectation is 1.7000).

GBP would break 1.7000 scaring the short positions.

This USD weakness is not a symptom of risk taking but a crisis in itself. Bernanke was quite comfortable with EURO at 1.4000 or lower bços he believes that a lower USD aids manufacturing output.

Gold is going to rocket from its launching platform at 1000.

The collapse of the USD would mark the collapse of FED as an authority to rule over a world reserve currency. The next crisis that plunge the world into Pretcher wave 3 or the continuation of the K-wave wuold be different. It is the FED crisis.

Grandma Janet Yellen boast of FED credibility and capability to forecast. However most know that a fortune teller cannot fortell his own fate.

FED collapse would drag all other central banks in toll. Now it is the crisis of the CENTRAL BANKS.

It would be quite funny to see Crude hovering 67 to 70, when the Dollar is collapsing. OPEC threshold of pain is below 70. I guess with a rapidly depreciating dollar and crude hangs around at 70, OPEC would be pretty amused. This tells of Deflation, not Inflation.

The market always surprises. It would take the path where most never thought of.

German election on the Horizon, what if Angela Merkel is defeated ?

Another thought on the China market. A lot of so called HOT MONIES are actually the ill-gotten gains of the State officials which went underground and re-emerge in stock accounts at brokerages. On the coming People party Congress, China would institute new party rule to mandate disclosure of personal wealth. Hence a lot of the Party Officials are scrambling to move monies outside of China. Hence profit taking on the stock market is inevitable.

China is holding its party meeting from 15-18 September, followed by National Celebration for 60 years establishment, expect some China market rallies towards the date: 1 October.

Also expect SPX to rally towards the date as well for the final crescendo.

Friday, September 11, 2009

11 Sept Charles Lennar spoke / Debtor Revolt, walk away from your Credit Card

Charles say go into defensive in 3 weeks time, meaning, October. and then the Rally would end in December.

I.e. we still got some more legs in this rally into September FOMC and then into the 3rd Quarter earningins, disappointment, a drop and then another rally into high into December.

Ken Lewis and his 30% interest rate AND Debtor Revolt.



Gold is telling your something: the coming collapse of the Federal Reserve.
To realise Pretcher wave 3, it has to be something catastrophic like the colllapse of Federal Reserve, and the collapse of USD means the collapse of Federal Reserve as well.

11 Sept Sign of times

Obama heckled by Joe Wilson during his Healthcare speech to the houses. Obama would go downhill from here.
You can see the obvious apprehension on Nancy Pelosi, the guardian angel, face. Even the devil has a mother.




Pretcher spoke weeks before when 1018 was hit and called it top. (however he also mentioned his target is 1000 to 1110). then market went to 1039. then Yamada came out, non-commital, talked of putting trailing stops to long, market went to 992. now yesterday we have Charles Lennar.
market is now in its parabolic phase (a laughable one, bcos there is no public participation, just short covering. we can't have a top when John Mack sellls to Blankfein, and then sells to Lewis, may be Buffet or China would be the last sucker).
The instruments to short is severly curtailed, like no stocks to borrow, ETF under review, etc.
Of course nothing goes up forever, some stocks are already near to their 2007 high. we are in a multidecade Kondrtatieff cycle. The bears would have her days again. Meanwhile if you have cash, put it aside and wait, maybe 6 months to 1 year for some fantastic deals.
Otherwise, go long small time and take the ride with tight stops. 992 to 1040 get you 50 points again.
If you have nothing better to go, goto muscleman beach and pump, rather than pumping stupid monies into shorts.

My forecast is 1110, meanwhile there would be wide swings from here to the destination. The swings would be contained, nothing that would panic Bernanke.

Almost forgot, today is 911.
Gold has completed its 2 day correction, and now on it rise towards 1050.
Bernanke let the caged Gold monster out, and he is going to regret this.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

10 Sept State of the Market / the life of an Apple

Singapore, HK market made new high today. SG market broke 2700. While FTSE broke 5000. SPX continues its climb.
SG property market is in a frenzy, while new condominium launches attract mobs, handing in blank cheques, prices in sunurban area attracting prices at 1000 dollar psf. Reminiscent of 1996 bubble.
Brokers on talk show talk of further upside, possiblities of bubble formation in stock market.(as if the current is not bubble).

Looking at monthly charts of most indices, the current rally is nothing sort of spectacular. Except that last Nov low/March low has a MACD confirmation, i.e. lower low to come.

Economic data are all improving. we may see a ballistic 3Qtr Earnings.

My view is that market has higher to go to 1050 then a pullback and then 1110 (888+222=1110, 888-666=222).

The risk:
the current breakout in AUDUSD has MACD confirmation. as AU economy improves, we cannot rule out 0.9, now at 0.8595.

Somehow the markets would break, however the right ingredient has to be inplace.

Yesterday, in FT a Credit Suisse analyst cites 3 triggers:
(a) Fed raising rates (only in 2nd half 2010),
(b) Bank funding difficulties
(c) Sudden collapse in China markets

I would like to add
(d) Geopolitical events. Israel air raid Iran.
(e) Swine flu mutates into killer virus.
(f) Earthquake sinking california

now most players are in Long positions, it is upto the marginal player to call the shots. The world need another Jerome Kervail to short another 50Billion of futures.

Tailgating on high speed would eventually lead to crash when the first car decides to screech to a halt.

If you look at AAPL, GOOG, they are just whiskers away from NOV 2007 high. If there is a correction, it is going to be Equally brutal for the Bulls. In fact if the Bear Market rally is 150 Km/hour, then we would have a Ferrari at 230 km/hour. In fact the drop would be precarious, it has to rise to considerable heights. It is this TOP that we are calling.

Apple has been playing disappearing/appearing game with Jobs. AAPL high now around 174.

nonethless as the PPT is very active, be careful, and prudent.

Charles Lennar spoke, top in Dec. however watch out Oct.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

8 September Knowing

just finished watching the movie "Knowing" by Nicholas Cage. If you know the future, probably you would hide in a cottage waiting for the eventuality.

Solar flare is a true threat to the Earth. The current Global Warming can be attributed to the Sun getting hotter, other than Human carbon emission. How ? According to some atronomist (yet ot be verified), the distance between the Earth and Sun is shrinking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSp9VoPeHquI

This United Nations Report basically tells of what Central Bankers have been doing, quietly swapping out their USD into GOLD, Euro, GBP, etc. Not to mention selling US Tbills, Bonds.
With the view that in the not so distant future, a GLOBAL Bank and a GLOBAL Currency would be established.

Probably IMF with a change of the voting rights, and issuing some form of a GLOBAL Currency would mark the demise of the FED.

Not to mention Ron Paul has an agenda to dismantle the FED calling for more transparency and audit.

As some has prophecied that Pope Benedict would be the last Pope on Earth, Bernanke would be be the last FED Chairman.

As expected, China market is staging its last rebound. Gold has surpassed 1000, and we would not see Gold lesser than 1000 in our lifetime.

Does GOLD herald the impending Hyperinflation era ? or the coming demise of the Fiat currency ?

Tuesday, US Market would open with a Bang and on its farewell march.

Tomorrow is 9 September 2009, 999 in short.

Bob Pretcher has a new Radio Broadcast, explaining his Deflationary view, and his coming new Book of course, sequel to "Conquer the Crash".

Tony Caldero tells of a Gap Down on Tuesday market open. Seems like this grandmaster of EW would get "F" today when US market opens.

So far nothing sinister on the Horizon.

I have added NOAA to my watch list besides the Swine Flu and Earthquake watch.

Dispicable Obama is trying to speak to our children urging them to work hard to pay off the nation's Debt.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100000821/china-bernanke-and-the-price-of-gold/

Bernanke backstop propel SPX from 666 to 1039,
China backstop is going to propel Gold to 1300 at least.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

6 September China

yes, I was in China for the past week, and China blocks Blogger. I would share with you guys some thoughts that I have gathered over this past week.
stay tune.