S&P index

Commodity Futures Charts

Friday, July 31, 2009

31 July Closing in on 1000

The deflationary forces is greater than the inflationary forces. However Bernanke tries to sustain a market expectation of future inflation, so as to prop up real yields. Fed futures show rate hike possiblity in Sept, Crude rising, Commodities rising, etc. So far his is able to do so successfully, evidence market rising. People pulls monies into equities, into properties in expectation of future rises. However is that the case ? Nope, evidence: Gold is still staying around the same level.

What you see in the Stock Market is illusionary, or so called mirage. People seeing a inflationary environment in future. Corporate America manage to sustain such a illusion by tricks, like advoiding mark to market, exceptionally low earnings estimate, contingency measures to prop up statistics, job cuttings, expenses slashing.

We are in the midst of a long wave: Kondratieff winter to correct the bull rally since the second world war ended, 1940s. 1 year does not correct a 60-years move.

The reason for the current euphoria in deteriorating fundamentals is a giveaway to what the rally is about, a correction.

Like in the thick of the night, you see figures hurriedly leaving the porch of your neighbour house, with big bags in tow. That got to be Thieves.

The other tell tale sign is that the BEAST has ascended the throne. The objective of the BEAST is to rob, sow unrest. The next plunge would be cruel.

Having said that, we dun not need to throw ourself at the fire everday to become victim of short covering. The SIGN would come when the top is reached.

http://camel.he.net/~syzygyq/new_site//index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=35&topic=255692.new#new

Great Los Angeles earthquake coming 5 August 2009, full moon.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

29 July USD rally begins


this was taken yesterday, it shows of the strength of USD. USD has resumed its rally now, and it is going to take a while to go up.
Crude, dropping. while CFTC hearing on limits is going on.
Equities is still holding well. Short selling rules officially in force. Though the up-tick rule still in discussion.
Read what Bernanke did not say, he said Green Shoots, Green Shoots would wilt when Autumn comes. Autumn is now around the corner.
I was waiting upon a BIG Earthquake all these weeks. Seismics activitiy has increased after the Solar Eclipse, however nothing that warrants public attention. I give myself tomorrow Thursday and Friday.
I fear a BIG one in China on the east coast (HangZhou, Shanghai), if not the much anticipated Tokai Earthquake, triggering a Asia wide Tsunamis.
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/a-new-airport-ritual-swine-flu-screening/?hp
China still practicing quarantine measure at airports. one sick everybody get quarantined for weeks.Advoid travelling to China at all cost.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

28 July Bears extinct

indeed, everywhere we hear Bull calls. Hardly any bears left. we may have the usual rally correction while the indices marches upwards. however the public is still timid to participate. May be some pullback would entice more buyers.

am on Earthquake watch. Forecaster calling for Japan Earthquake on 28 July 10:00 UT which is 5 am ET.

DXY hardly move. Somebody buying USD ?
HSI breached Wave 2, giving this rally a new bull rally.

Could not post any images, something wrong with Blogger.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

26 July Public Participation, the waiting game

Every bull rally suppose to end in a distribution phase, with Public Participation. I see people unemployed, bonus disappeared, jobs in peril. For those with monies, they use it for first payment for housing mortgage. Public no longer trust bankers who are trying to sell products.

Otherwise, monies invested have been into products which are monies depleting like Equity Linked Notes on Citigroup.

The pool of monies for buying stocks have been reduced tremendously.

If you know when Public Participation is coming in, you know when is the top of the market.

As investors we can wait, we can wait for years, while living our daily job. But for those whose job is to take monies from the market, they cannot wait, they have to pay bills, subscriptions, utilities.

Would the market makers wait for the Public Participation ?

According to bloggers, punching through 980 is like knife through butter, 1013 seems like a common target. Another 30 points of gain.

Stay out of shorts and wait for better levels.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

25 July H1N1 second wave has come / CFTC public hearing on position limits / FASB latest

http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/

Mexico is now seeing the arrival of 2nd wave. 10 deaths within 4 days. As most nations are not monitoring the number of infections, the monitoring of Fatality becomes a benchmark.
Mutation has actually occured for the worse, while nations prefer to ignore or deny it. Argentine is now badly hit, soon UK, Canada and US. The Asia counties would soon catch on, with HK, Singapore taking the lead.

It is little wonder that Equities are in a hurry, finish the shopping before the storm comes.

As in the March Low, it came silently to 666 without any capitulation. The coming high would come/or has come silently. Would SPX has come to top at 979.79. Divergence not confirming the current high.
However most bloggers are expecting a higher high.

Meanwhile am waiting till 30 July to see if the Larger-than-Life Earthquake precipitated by the Solar Eclipse would come eventually.
Some forecasters have been warning of a major Los Angeles Earthquake.
http://www.quakecentralforecasting.com/petpredicts.html

http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2009/pr5681-09.html
CTFC public hearing on Position Limits starting 28 July. heard that they want to bring in discussion on Precious Metals, Silver, Gold, etc.
Position limits extended by CFTC would basically limit the manipulation, through the ETF, etc.
It would be interesting to see if there is any reaction on Crude next week.

Next week Treasury is going to auction 235 billion of Tbills. Wow!!!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5BsXz90CMso
FASB conscience is calling out. FASB wants to expand use of Fair Value Accounting on corporate income statement and balance sheets. The Bankers are going to fight it. The preliminary decision was reached 15 July. Formal proposal to be out next month.
Then we would know which Banks are insolvent, and then there would be another rush to raise capital, more shares selling.

The backdrop is slowly turning. While the smartest monies are positioning for the inevitable, the dumbest monies are basking in euphoria.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

22 July Alcatraz coming to you

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/443960/1/.htmlThousands of inmates to be released from Alcatraz, that includes Freddy Krugger and Madoff.Welcome to America !!!!! told you Obama is AntiChrist. Californians who voted for Obama should be ashamed of yourself, and should confess to your sin in Church today.The only people saved from Obama elected are the bankers, while ordinary Americans are getting poorer. People with prime mortgages going out of business, small businesses have no more saving to continue.The Isrealis are smarter, they did not give up their settlements are Obama asked them. They knew Obama is the AntiChrist. In fact Obama during his recent Middleeast tour, hints that he is a Muslim.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/world/europe/18pope.html

Pope Benedict broke his wrist on 17 July after meeting Obama and shook his hand ealirer on 10 July.

Why have Americans ignored the signs ? American should stand up in the name of Jesus and repel the BEAST !!!!

22 July Solar Eclipse day LORD cometh to arrest the BEAST.

http://ezinearticles.com/?Will-Three-Gorges-Dam-Survive-June-22-Solar-Eclipse-on-June-23-Or-24---Earthquakes&id=2480834

Would the Solar Elcipse which would traverses over China, trigger a major Earthquake and breaks the 3 Gorges Dam. Break one of the dams along the longest river of China, would have a domino effect and downstream dams. A lot of cities and factories would be wiped out.

Bernanke is having his last testimonial before his renomination. He has given warnings at his testimonial, saying the earnings may not last, and employment wuld continue to be weak and a drag on consumption. And Fed likely to keep rate as it is.

From my point of view, if Fed keeps rate means economy still have deflationary risks. not a good sign. Now Bernanke has marked the top short term. US equities would resume its drop after bouncing from 869 to retest the top at 956. Crude has also topped out at 66.68.

Now we would look at what would topple the China market tomorrow ?

I am afraid something disastrous is going to happen after the Solar Eclipse for Asia and China.

And I wish Divine to have mercy.

Isaiah wrote:"Behold, the day of the LORD cometh, ... the sun shall be darkened in his going forth, and the moon shall not cause her light to shine."And I will punish the world for their evil, and the wicked for their iniquity; and I will cause the arrogancy of the proud to cease, and will lay low the haughtiness of the terrible" (Isa. 13:9-11).

LORD is coming to arrest this rally with the mark of the BEAST 666.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

21 July Holy Grail











Would Shanghai Composite goes to 3368 ? the last high this morning was around 3280.






















The Holy Grail wuld repel the Devil away. The high of Crude went to 65.52














Monday, July 20, 2009

21 July Decision time

would Crude breaks the gap at 65 ?

65 is also where 50 days moving average is. Still resistance.


20 July America is the endtime Babylon


Euro staging for a Inverse H&S pattern, however the breakout is not clean. Taget at 1.4450, probably 1.4500. Another H&S pattern. After looking at Crude, possible target 67.
At first I was skeptical of Euro, now I am more inclined to accept the Rally for Euro, Crude and Equities, SPX possibly to 1.56 by Monday, if not Tuesday.





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqxj8a7HWjQ

http://www.quakecentralforecasting.com/Larger-Than-Life-Phenomenon.html
Some geologist forecasting LA Earthquake.

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http://english.pravda.ru/science/19/94/378/16387_Boriska.html
The Russian boy who claimed to be from Mars.
The boy is quite optimistic about Russia's future, though: “The situation in the country will be improving gradually. However, planet Earth will have to experience two very dangerous years – 2009 and 2013. Those catastrophes will be connected with water,” Boriska said.

Would the Big Tsunamis be coming ?
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Sunday, July 19, 2009

19 July Lunar Eclipse, EarthQuake, China Communish Party upheaval


Shanghai A50 ETF, non-confirmation of the last high. Last Solar Eclipse on 1 August 2008, we see a plunge almost 50%. For the coming 22 July Solar Eclipse, would we have the same ?

The Solar Eclipse on 1 August 2008 lasted for only 2 mins, and was not transgressing the whole of China. This coming Solar Eclipse would last for a full 6.5 mins, and moon would be the closest, the last time the duration was as long was in AD.

If Shanghai market top, would we have a Coupling, and US market top as well ? or a Decoupling ? (I sold all my Shanghai A50 shares on last Wednesday).

Isaiah wrote:"Behold, the day of the LORD cometh, ... the sun shall be darkened in his going forth, and the moon shall not cause her light to shine."And I will punish the world for their evil, and the wicked for their iniquity; and I will cause the arrogancy of the proud to cease, and will lay low the haughtiness of the terrible" (Isa. 13:9-11).

The time has come, when the BEAST shall be punished, after the Sun be darkened and the moon shall not shine on 27 July 2009, when the LORD presents himself for the final sendoff party.

http://www.star4cast.com/index.asp?page=eclipse.asp
A prophet associating Solar Eclipse with assassination of US President.

The Solar Eclipse is at 29 degrees Cancer on July 22 2009. There is a Lunar Eclipse on July 7th at 15 degrees Capricorn and another on August 6th at 14 degrees Aquarius.The upcoming Solar Eclipse at 29 degrees Cancer on July 22nd is in a Series that seems to have profound and risky effects for US Presidents. Bernadette Brady writes: This family of eclipses is concerned with the need to make sudden reforms. Old ideas and methods will fail and new systems required - . Any blocks could be violently or tragically removed.�It occurred in this series in 1901, 1919, 1937, 1955, 1973, 1991. Eclipses are thought to stay in effect in the six months following.In 1901 four months after the Eclipse President William McKinley was shot and died of his wounds. In 1919 again four months after the Eclipse President Woodrow had a break down.

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1976年4月29日日环食
1976年7月28日凌晨3时42分,唐山大地震。仅23秒钟,一个106万人口的重工业城市唐山夷为废墟,死亡人数超过24万,罹难场面极其惨烈,是世界地震史上最悲惨的一页。一个多月后的9月9日,中国权倾一世的中共党魁毛泽东去世。10月6日,华国锋先发制人,在中共和军队元老叶剑英、毛泽东的侍卫长汪东兴的支持下,发动兵变,就地逮捕四人帮所有成员。历时十年的浩劫文化大革命运动由此落幕。

This one is for my China readers. On 1976 28 July, after the famous TangShan Earthquake, death over 240,000. Followed by death of the then China dictator on 9 September.
Within this Solar Eclipse, within Months we would have more turmoil in China, and upheaval in the China Communist Party.

19 July Earthquake Clouds observed in China yesterday


Despite all these gloomy forecast, market is expecting Obama stimulus to kick in in the 3rd Qtr, hence the market is trying to stage its next leg up, targeting SPX = 1100 to 1200.

The retracement has been shallow, only to 869.

The market may want to make another drop to shake off the weak bulls, to stage the next rally.
Or rather irregardless, hurriedly complete 1100 by September, before Winter sets in.

Nonetheless, my preference is for a Shock of the market to dip right towards 666. There is now sufficient long interest in the market (with accumulation last week) to cause a panic once 850 is breached.

It is still a Bear Market rally regardless of which path the market decides to take. The mass deliveraging cycle is not yet complete, and we are still half way through the Depression Cycle. The gigantic double top of S&P is still in control, no matter how the market bounces around 850-900 level.

In fact any more rise is detriment to the Obama mid term election, because the market would top out end of this year, and plunge towards next year November mid term election.

Hence it is imperative for Obama and Bernanke to coerce the market to correct now and then begin another leg up early next year. Then at least the American public would be euphoric a second time.

The Goldman Sachs record earnings have attracted public anger, and the Republican would use it to torpedo Obama economic recovery claim.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

18 July Total Solar Eclipse 22 July 2009 Earthquakes Tsunamis


http://www.garagegames.com/community/blogs/view/15946

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-217369

Weeks ago, I was strolling along the beach, right at where I stand, a small wooden status of Lord Ganesan was washed ashore, right at my feet.
It was Lord Ganesan holding a Serpent, not the usual image.
(Lord Ganesan is a Hindu God).

I am puzzled as to the Divine meaning. Now I realise what Divine is telling me.

Something ominous is coming from the sea.
Coastal cities in Asia would be submerged. Island resorts deep beneath sea levels. High rise buildings nestled among ocean water.
However one Caltech Professor in Singapore tried to debunk this:
and the final statement from the Earth Observatory of Singapore:
"The EOS reiterates that there is no scientific evidence to support the rumour that an earthquake-tsunami in the southeast Asian region linked to the solar eclipse on 22 July 2009 will occur. "
Singapore is especially vulnerable, because most of its tall buildings, and two forthcoming Mega-Casinos (the most expensive casinos ever built on Earth) are just metres away from the coast.
It had also reclaimed sea from one of its island to build condominium clusters (Sentosa Cove). It is inhabited mostly by expatriates, Americans, Europeans.
A local Professor in Singapore said otherwise in September 2008:
Singapore Changi airport would be consumed, as it is just next to the sea. As well as its Jurong Island which hosts some of the busiest oil refineries (Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, etc), and chemical plants of a lot of mulitnationals.
The supply of oil would be disrupted.
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Another Earthquake prediction, by a Switzerland scientist:
Impact area: China SiChuan (same place as last yr devastating quake in August), ChongQing, and Shanghai.
Earthquakes has been clustering around the Pacific Ocean for the past weeks.
The last time we had the Lunar Eclipse lasting of a duration of 6.5 mins was in 502 A.D.
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This also brings up the topic on Japan Tokai Earthquake, an Earthquake forecasted to arrive this decade that would decimate Japan industrious center region. Japan nuclear reactors in the Hamaoka is under threat. A nuclear meltdown would cause radioactive particles to spread within 7 hours to Tokyo.
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Giants squids washed up from deep sea after Earthquake at La Jolla California on 13 July.
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Earthquakes Update:
8 days away from the total solar eclipse, we already have 3 major earth quakes with 2 of them directly along the the path of the Total Solar Eclipse of 22 July.
1. July 9 : Yunnan, China; Magnitude-5.7 earth quake.
2. July 12 : Eastern Sumba island, Indonesia; STRONG 6.4-magnitude quake.
3. July 14 : Taiwan; UNDERSEA earthquake measuring 6.3.
There have been 7 other minor ones as well :
10 July : Kuril Islands, Japan (5.7)
10 July : Minahasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia (5.3)
10 July : Yunnan, China (5)
10 July : Kepulauan Batu, Indonesia (5)
10 July : Mindanao, Phillipines (5.1)
12 July : Kepulauan Aru, Indonesia (5.4)
13 July : Taiwan (5.1)
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Lunar Eclipse 7 July
Solar Eclipse 21 July
Lunar Eclipse 5 August
Predictions of economy included by Joni Patry.
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The last time we had the Solar Eclipse in China (1 Aug 2008, before the 8 August 2008 Beijing Olympic opening), followed by the crash of the Stock Market. Not to mention the Georgian War.
China is the only country that would see the Solar Eclipse on 22 July 2009 in its totality. The Solar Eclipse would cross Shanghai.
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The Bible got this to say:
Isaiah wrote:"Behold, the day of the LORD cometh, ... the sun shall be darkened in his going forth, and the moon shall not cause her light to shine."And I will punish the world for their evil, and the wicked for their iniquity; and I will cause the arrogancy of the proud to cease, and will lay low the haughtiness of the terrible" (Isa. 13:9-11).
John wrote: "And I beheld when he had opened the sixth seal, and, lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood" (Rev. 6:12).
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18 July Stock making new high ?

Crude in a bearish rising wedge, now at 63. DXY making a come back. Euro not able to break 1.4165.

USD index has been building a base for almost 1.5 months now. Once it breaks upward, the momentum would be tremendous especially with the Short Coverings. Remember all the reserve diversifcation rhetorics before the G8 hardly dent the USD.

QQQQ showing a daily Doji. For sure this rally from Monday, has sucked in a lot of monies. Shares bought have to be sold somehow. With unemployment rising to 13%, saving rates on rise, wonder who is going to buy those shares. May be GS, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citi can do national service and hold those shares for good.
SPX showing a hammer.

Monday Asia reaction would be interesting.
China half-yr Tbill shares fall short of target. Now China has to think about selling Treasuries to boost its operating cashflows. With falling exports, foreign cash are not as abundant.

Meanwhile Oxford Economist now talking about looming Winter Pandemic would cut GDP and plunge UK back into deflation. How about US ?
http://www.oef.com/free/pdfs/ukmswineflu(jul09).pdf

Sell on the drum beat, buy on the Bugle.

The pope broke his wrist today, after shaking hand with the BEAST.

Friday, July 17, 2009

17 July Roubini, the Bear King has yielded or not ?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31947275

Perhaps the earlier Reuters report has given what the market needs, the triump over the Bear King.
Last Month, Jim Rogers have yielded, saying he has taken out all shorts. Now Roubini was quoted as saying (which he claims was taken out of context) that the worst is over, reversing his last month statement that the worst is yet to come.

Nonetheless, the market would claim Victory at having slaughtered the Bear King.

As Chinese saying goes, all things going extreme would reverse.

Euro did not manage to sustain the breakout at 1.4165, and now back in the pennant formation at 1.4100 (10 pm ET Thursday). If Euro breaks 1.3850 today, it would be significant. Otherwise it would be trapped in the pennant waiting for 21 July.

SPX would test 956, and get done with it. With next week down. Dark Cloud Cover.

Shanghai market hanging on a thread. Those who borrowed monies to punt better take cover. Otherwise CCP officers would descend on their office.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

16 July Elephant Stampede


16 July Crude to $20

At 8:30 am ET, Eurusd made a dash for 1.4165. higher high not confirmed. Before noon, we would confirm this as a Failed Breakup.




as I posted the crude chart with target of 16.73 yesterday.
today one professor, ex-government advisor Philip Verlager talked about 20 dollar oil.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=auTu3RI8WC1A

Is it a conincidence or divine intervention ?
Since OPEC enlarged production during the 2007 rally, the spare crude are still floating around and when China is slowing its oil import, after it went on a binge buying all sort of commodities earlier this yr.

This is almost a 50 dollar drop from peak of 73. Citigroup, JP Morgan with the loaded tankers ought to sell off their cargo in a fire sale.

For the Shanghai A50, we have a dark cloud cover pattern, i.e. the breakout is not confirmed.

Heard on radio, brokers advising client not to wait for the end of the corporate earnings to enter the market.
Clients are advised to buy on dips.

RISKS
Euro has broken to the upside at 1.4150. I believe it is a fake up. this would give a open up for SPX.

16 July Shanghai have topped. Open letter to Market Maker.

After hitting 3218, now Shanghai Composite has dropped to 3183. and HK also dropped in the afternoon session.
we should see some pull back in US market today. I sold my ETF a bit early. Should have waited for the GDP annoucement and sold into the rally.
This is typical sell on news, buy on rumours.

If now we have a synchronised top in China and US markets, then the pullback would be substantial. Nonetheless the event that is going to trigger the pullback is not evident.

Meanwhile am loittering in a giant mall which newly opened, 8 floors of food and luxuries. All these are part of the capacity expansion that started in 2007.

Well, open letter to the market make: just let it drop and everybody go for a good holiday and come back mid September.

H1N1 update
HK having a few critical H1N1 cases, while Singapore has 3 in critical conditions, one being a pregnant woman without prior conditions.
Wish all get well soon.

16 Jul Shanghai top / HSI targets

For the bears looking for inspiration. Here is my projection for possible HSI target. We see a megaphone formation. As we know we are into an era of the reverse of the Great Moderation. A higher high is not likely in next few years. That would make a breakdown of the Megaphone formation possible. 10770 would be the key.
HOWEVER, this is not main stream view. This view carries high risk.

Morning post China GDP update:
May be it is still early to call the top. just 30 mins after market open.
see my earlier post, my charts for Shanghai A50 was 15.38, it opened at 15.40.

China GDP posted 7.9% growth yoy versus forecast of 7.5%.

If the government is not happy with the liquidity and speculation in the market, it is time to pull back.

Immediately after annoucement, HSBC revised its China GDP forecast upwards. Seems like Oriental Express is once more on the road.

On the contrary the China steel companies are not doing well, bleeding due to losses, they wanted 45% iron ore prices cut, but had to settle for only 33% with Rio Tinto. With the record car sales, steel companies are not doing as well. Probably a fair share of the the profits went to the foreign companies.

Some corrections across markets on the way in the next few weeks. US futures are down now, after news had it that there would not be bailout for CIT, US Treasury deemed that CIT is not too big to fail. Expect repercussions across the small businesses in coming weeks.

You have to admit if you do not have good connections to Capitol Hills, you are allowed to fail.

SPX may have completed another Right Shoulder, that would make a lot of stocks making a fake breakout after the consolidation period, that make GS as well.

After Asia lunch at 2 am ET, we would see if the market confirms the Shanghai top.

Now Shanghai composite is down to 3188, yesterday close.

When Europe opens, and into 4 am ET, we should get confirmation from EURUSD, and then EURUSD would complete its false breakup and move down through the pennant formation.
As this pennant formation took 2 months, after the April to June rally to 1.43360, we would have 2 months of EURUSD down move towards 1.3000 initially (whether 1.2300 is reachable to be determined later). Target time frame is around mid September.
Fed Fund Rate forecasting a rate hike in September.

16 July Euro in pennant formation -> Breakdown


taken at 3am ET, now Euro at 1.4050, should do a fake test of the upper trendline and then plonk through the formation towards 1.3000.

current Equity rally smell fishy. This week China should top, and this SPX correction should top at 930 for a hand in hand jump off the cliff.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

15 July Sold my Shanghai A ETF

US Shanghai i25 ETF FXI not behaving well.

On a monthly chart, Shanghai Composite looks invincible. Perhaps I took profit too early.




Crude, to complete a Wave 5 and hit 16 ? Probably the world is in Armageddon. Quite unimaginable as of now.

Nikkei hugging against the downtrend line. With the Aso announcing election end of July, and the ruling DPJ facing an unadvoidable defeat in Japan history, great uncertainty awaits Japan.

Shanghai Composite rose to 3188, while the Shanghai A ETF (2823) broke 15. I sold at 15.04 while the day ended at 15.30, my original target.

Tomorrow right at HK market open is the China GDP, consensus an optimistics 6.8. Decide to stay out and took profit.

Attended a video conference with the DB chief economist, Dr Meyer. Essentially Green Shoots talk from the bank, expected market to top in Q2 2010, then drop and rise again in 2011. Essentially a series of Sine wave attenuation. growth in US at a low 1-2%. Inflation to rise in next decade because of debt to rise to 137% of GDP.

Hence mainstream thinking is that the March Low is about it, and economy would rise further into Q2 2010, i.e. Stock Market would rise till at least this year end.

All bright and sunny outside. The crisis did not happened.









15 July TOP Shanghai. Singapore revises GDP forecast upwards.

As I mentioned SPX would rebound to 910. today the highest was 905. let see if the close we can get any higher.

Tomorrow I would be waiting for the top in Shanghai market at 3200. now at about 3160.

Hong Kong has already topped last month at 19000.

Let the show begins.......as Michael Jackson said to his male lover: I am the King of Pop, come and lick my lollipop.

UK health authority admits they are surprised by the spread of the H1N1.

Singapore revises its GDP forecast upwards. as usual the government economist always make the wrong forecast. It would be quite embarassing for them to revise downward again in a short while. Without independent thinking, group think always fails.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

14 July Meredith, Meredith

It is good that Meredith spoke.

Last time she was on air in April, she talked down the Banks, and the rallies ensued.
Yesterday, before market, she talks down the economy and talk up the Banks.
She says unemployment to goto 13%, Banks a buy on zero fundamentals.

After she spoke, market rallies, GS back to 147.....

Sign of times.

By the way, I have been waiting for Meredith for a while.

13 July Asia short squeeze

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE56C0T120090713

Jobless recovery, Americans working for free to drive earnings and better GDP. Shame on Obama.

Expect SPX to goto 900 to 910.

Monday, July 13, 2009

13 July Asia down

Summers over the weekend talked down the market, as he spoke to FT.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090712/tts-finance-economy-us-972e412.html

Meanwhile, Asia markets are pulling back. I expect one more up-leg for China in the next 3 days before the definite top comes in. Shanghai composite to reach 3200.

China to launch its 5th largest IPO on Tuesday for a construction related company. Tuesday is also the day of Goldman Sachs earning release before Tuesday market open.

Bears, watch out, beware of a short sequeeze, and another great shorting opportunity.

China and Australia in spatter over Rio Tinto. This is what is called the War of Commodities. More to come.

My Banker last month persuaded me to buy Equity Linked Notes on Citigroup with strike at 2.5, then the prices was 3.5. I did not budge.
My pretty Banker told me it is just a correction. Everybody on the streets is saying it is a correction.

Now Banks going out to the market in cahoot with property developers, giving some cheap loans (cheap for 3 yrs). Now a lot of side monies are sucked in.

I believe Asia market setting up a Bear Trap today, we should some good gains Tuesday, Wednesday or may be into Friday. Time to sell my Shanghai A ETF, and also some HK H Shares as well.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

11 July California Big One coming

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN0947203820090709Tremors building up to a potential big one. the last big one was 1857 Fort Tejon 7.8 Richter scale. Potential hit area north of Los Angeles.

China Yunan has a major one on Thursday. 5.7 scale. 400000 evacuated. If a Big California earthquake happens, we would have a double whammy with H1N1. UK H1N1 death double overnight to 14. 1 healthy person died of H1N1. Productivity down, with absentism running high in Australia and UK.

The Four Horseman of Apocalypse in the Revelation: Plague, Earthquake, Depression and War. War yet to come. Is Israeli on the move ?

The Beast was at the G8 meeting in a Italian city hit by Earthquake.

Friday, July 10, 2009

10 July The BEAST meeting the Pope. The Last Pope on Earth.

For you Goldman suckers out there.



As Goldman is expected to announce better than expected earnings, let see how its technical turn.


XLF. Looking at the chart, one realise how shallow was the rally compared to last yr fall.

One person dead from the Spanish Bull Run festival. More would come.

China Rio Tinto debacle. China government clamping down on collusion among China steel companies executives and Rio Tinto senior employees to rig the price of iron ore. As China and Rio Tinto are in talks to negotiate contract prices, industial esponiage is attemtped to undermine China bargaining power, thus allowing mines to righ higher contract price.

This is the start of falling dominos of commodities price rigging rampant amongst natural resources companies and the biggest consumer of Commodities, China.

The Commodity Bull Run is going to plunge soon.

Meanwhile CNBC spinning tales that July is to be ignored and buyers usually come in August. I.e. relax, it is just a blip, no panic.

Meanwhile I need some of you out there to push the China A shares higher, I am sure you guys would do me this favour. Cutoff time 12 noon on 15 July (Wednesday).

China government is quietly pulling off liquidty by issuing bonds, sucking spare monies. UK BoE hold back on buying more Treasuries, stopping at 125 billion pounds. Singapore launched a new law to impose capital gain tax on people flipping properties.

By the way, there is a unverified predicition floating around that there would be an Earthquake toppling Singapore on the 21 July. China Yunan had a major Earthquake with 300 dead. Asia rims earthquakes quite frequent in past days.

The world government is quietly pulling the rug underneath the party when people are still tossing champagne glasses.

Nonetheless, investors are still holding their stock fist tight. A monkey story. Some psychologist planned a bottle with a narrow neck and with food inside. The monkey reach in for the food, fist full and cannot pull out of the bottle. And greed prevents the monkey letting go and hence it was caught.

Once investors realise that it is not a correction, that is when panic begins, we are still early.

Barack Hussein Obama (a self proclaimed Muslim and Christian ???) meeting the Pope. Would the fate of Pope Benedict be thus sealed ? There are predictions out there that says Pope Benedict is the last pope.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8144753.stm

Obama visiting Africa, and locust plague would follow.
UK H1N1 death doubles within a day to 14.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

9 Jul Young Bear / China Xinhua

when I was at the Bank, overheard a housewife saying that she saw gold dropping and bought a KG. Some more room to fall. Gold disappointed me, I was hoping for a rally from here onwards to break 1000. We need some news that the FED has actually swapped out its Gold.

(above Shanghai A ETF, target reaching next week)


(Shanghai Composite on a ladder climb and breaching the top channel soon)


We are still in early stages of the bear run, easy rally to throw young bears off.
777 is the Jackpot, would we get there in a Straight Line ?

(666 you take the casino home).


So far nothing frightening on the economy fronts.

Shanghai Composite on a tear, target 3200 to be top. meanwhile Shanghai A shares ETF should top out at 15.38.


Would this be the end of the China rally this year ? I would draw conclusion later.


Lessons to be learnt:

Market do not top out at the same time, neither do they bottom out at the same time. China market bottomed in November 2008, while US bottomed in March 2009. US had a good 4 months so far, while stalling in the 4th month: June 2009. China has almost 8 months, and still rallying in July 2009. Everything has a limit, as does 400 billion of China stimulus.


I see headlines saying China to spur world wide recovery, which is like the Decoupling theory last year which ended miserably. When Asians bought heavily into the market in April, May 2008, followed by 6 months of China plunge into November 2008.

You can check $FTX, but the iShares FXI is really a disappointment. Sometimes these ETF is not living up to expectation.

Once China completes its (mid term top), there would be no more holding back for the US retreat. It would then falls convincingly.

In a falling market, you short the weakest (namly US markets), not the strongest (China market).


If you have a million USD to invest in China, email me at dollarproaragon@hotmail.com and we can discuss.









Tuesday, July 7, 2009

7 Jul Rosenberg: we are in 18 years Bear Cycle

Ex ML chief Economist, now in Toronto, said that.
I.e. it is a Trading world in the next 18 years.

Market waiting for 2nd Qtr earnings. Awfully boring.
People are watching this Full Moon day. Lycans coming ? hope so, kill the bordom at least.

On last Full Moon, Divine spoke to me and I see the mutation of H1N1 virus, which is now a fact 2 weeks ago with verification from Denmark and Japan.

Now, on this Full Moon, Divine spoke to me and I see wide spread social chaos, riots in US, Europe, China and other Asian cities.

Monday, July 6, 2009

6 Jul Biden says sorry

Biden said sorry that the US government has misread the Economy.

Ice Age tie with Revenge of the Fallen for boxoffice at 42.5 million.

We have entered ICE AGE.

The short squeeze on USD should be quite substantial, considering all the rhetorics by the China, India on reserve currency diversification. Noting that the G8 meeting would be on Thursday, Friday. Their diversification would give support to Euro at lower levels like 1.2400/1.2500. (actually China, India rhetorics have enticed their citizens to short USD, they bait their own countryman, what a shame.)

Another wave of Foreclosures coming. Summers, Timmy frens have escaped, now there is nothing to hold them back from crashing the market, albeit shareholders especially abroad in Asia/Hong Kong/Singapore/China are going to take severe losses

Sunday, July 5, 2009

5 Jul Ghosts of the past rattled from their graves under the Full Moon

The worst scenario in this pandemic is that the H1N1 mixes with H5N1 and develop a new mutation that is as deadly as bird flu and as efficient as swine flu. It is like the Alien meeting the Predator Part 4.
The bull flag which I promised on Thursday.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/07/04/iraq.biden/index.html
Biden mocks Ghost of Saddam on Independence Day.
"We did it in Saddam's palace and I can think of nothing better. That S.O.B. is rolling over in his grave right now," Biden said of the former Iraqi dictator,
Now, it is not that smart to summon the ghost before you, out of fun, especially on a Full Moon 4th July.
Just to mention that Saddam died at the hands of those he tortured, a setup that the US military condoned. He would rise from the grave if he can.

Soon, turmoil would soon erupts in Iraq, with factions taking control of the oil fields, wrestling them out from the hand of the ruling governments.

US would find itself fighting 2 wars, one in Iraq and one in Afghanistan. The Talibans are beating a false retreat, setting up a mega ambush against the largest congregation of US marines since Vietnam war.

Ghosts of past would all turn on 4 July and come haunting America at the call of the BEAST.

H1N1 update
Teen did not go to hospital and die at home after 4 days.
And the government would soon encourage people to stay at home for flu.

What happened in Australia would be multiplied in New York, and other major metropolitan cities.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

4 Jul The Rule of the BEAST

Looking out of my windows, it is all peace and calm. read some pieces.

A HSBC private wealth guy says forsee correction in July, August. then things would be better. Read some blogs, all talking about this H&S pattern with neckline from 878 to 888. Target is around 821.

The consensus in next weeks would be the market has gotten ahead, and correction would be inevitable. After taking unsual gains, see if Banks have any other leeways to earn.

H1N1 is getting mysterious, with Tamilflu resistant reported, implication, the vast arsenal of world wide Tamiflu is a total waste.
Another in India about a patient who as recovered and still tested positive for H1N1. Implication-> H1N1 has gotten stealth, and hide inside seemingly healthy individual, ready to infect.

As I have always forecasted, the world is entering into a highly unstable period. The market may prefer to waver its way downwards, sucking in as much buyers as possible, to achieve wealth destruction before another bottom is reached.

As I have given hints to my subscriber where that bottom may be in terms of SPX. It is another Devilish number.

Is it not concidential that with the Rule of the BEAST, plague has struck. American citiziens already feeling the pain of Depression, and next would be Civil Unrest and War.

US launched its biggest assault of US marines since Vietnam way with its deployment of Marines into Afghanistan Tablian infested regions. Soon they would be drawn deeper and deeper into the mountain ranges, and lost again. It is the design of the Commander-in-chief The BEAST.

Under the guise of seemingly good governance, the BEAST is spawning the seeds of evil among human kinds.

During the 2008 election, Barack Hussein Obama strongly protested against claims he is a Muslim, but on his recent trip to middleeast, and in his Cairo University speech, “So I have known Islam on three continents before coming to the region where it was first revealed.” - President Barack Obama, Cairo University, 4 June 2009 He is revealing his Muslim innerside.

I think that has to be a greater awarement among the American public that the BEAST has manifested itself, the second coming of the Messiah would soon arive.

By the way, the Large Hydon Collider is scheduled to restart on some undetermined date in September.

Rogue Oil Trader
============
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/5735874/Rogue-trader-could-have-cost-PVM-Oil-400m.html

Last time when Crude was at 147, the rogue traders were from Vitoil. Now PVM Oil. Traders desperate to jack up the markets. To no avail.
Technically, they were trying to distort the H&S pattern formation. However Crude still closes below the neckline on Friday.
Next week the Plunge in most instruments would come, except GOLD.

Unless the Whales want everybody to jump on board, they better engineer a GAP DOWN quick and fast. Let see what they can cook up on Sunday and Asia Monday.

Friday, July 3, 2009

3 July Muted response from Asia

After the SPX, DOW dived, Asia gave a muted response. Nikkei at 9776, way above 9000. HSI still hugging 18000, STI hugging 2300. Drop < 1%.

Those who bought are not selling, and there are not much buying either.
Need an exogenous event to give Asia markets a kick. Meanwhile am holding the Shangahi A ETF and HK H shares ETF, waiting for the climax.

Will North Korea fire the missle onto Hawaii ?

Meanwhile, the North Korean ship reverse course at around HK waters, and UN Ban Kee Moon is now visiting Mynnmar, the supposed destination of the ship. Could it be that Ban is visiting Mynnmar to investigate on Mynnmar intention. Could the ship cargo been seized ?

News headline: Obama runs into bad press.
Obama rigged his meetings with the press with pre-planned and planted questions. Townhall meetings with friendly audience.
Obama is a fake, everthing the Administration doing is fake. May be Michelle faked it as well.

Shame on American who picked a fake President, worse a BEAST in disguise.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

2 Jul Strangled to death by a yellow phyton / The last sucker game



well, unemployment may be reversing and accelerating up again.

DXY on bull flag. (wanted to post the chart, again Blogger having programming problem).

Hotel loans default rising. hotel bookings weaker even than post 911. Positive GDP does not mean much, as economy continues to drop. Ritz Carlton, Marriot, Four Seasons are facing trouble. Hotel employment deterioriates.

Kenneth Rosen, UC Berkeley.


Would OBAMA use TARP monies to rescue Marriot, Ritz Carlton and Four Seasons ?
may be latter on Las Vegas as well ? saving the lap dancers, hookers and Giggolos.

Denninger has a good piece today on the ball passing game of the Big Banks, "Conspiracy to hide Bubble formation". Goldman Sachs sell to JP at $1, JP sells to Morgan at $2, Morgan sell to the last sucker at $3, and then the sucker finds to no buyer.

Barclay Global Wealth research says that 50-60% of investors are staying out of the market. Seems like 40% of them are the suckers.

In January, somebody wrote a piece in the Newsweek, saying that the Stock Market may rally while the economy worsen, in anticipation of Obama stimulus. It did happen and happening now.(Buttonwood: ready for a Rally ?).

What if we have GDP moving into positive zone, while Stock Market reverses and drop, drop, drop, in anticiaption of the weakening real economy ? Then would we have Butonwood: ready for a plunge

US Treasury selling Bonds and Notes again next week.

2 years, 10 years yields all dropping. 2 yrs yeilds drop almost 10%.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/01/python-florida-strangled-child-death

Girl strangled by a yellow phyton in Florida. Would those Institutions funds who keep piling into equities be strangled to Death by this Python ? GOD warning to you folks out there.

SPX now at 903. Romer saying "definitely disappointed" with a smiling face. The EVIL trio: Timmy, Summy and Rommy.

H1N1 update
Obama cannot hide any more, he has to declare a Flu Summit next week. In case it get worse and he lands in the same hotsoup like Katrina for Bush.

UK forecast 10,000 case/day in August. Now H1N1 does not kill, it is of no panic, this is what some government trying to spin.
I ask the Minister, why not you go out there and get it.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

2 Jul GI Joe rise of Cobra

GI Joe Rise of Cobra, after the Revenge of the Fallen fails, the Cobra would rise on 7 August.

Now NYSE is hiding its daily Program Trade report, hence we do not have information on how much program trade Goldman Sachs is doing.

Only risk is the PPIP details. Would market get a boost ? or more like sell on news ?

now the situation is reconciled. Euro would goto 1.4400 (now at 1.4200), while SPX would goto 950 again, now at 927.

Unless Euro march on without SPX. We are close to a Euro top.

2 Jul 3 stars





You see the 3 stars on MONTH, WEEK and DAY.

The market is so boring that the following study says so:
http://www.livescience.com/health/090629-vibrator-use.html
half of Americans use Vibrators. Think the market maker needs to introduce some volatility.

Asia has been hovering around current levels for the past 2 weeks.
Meanwhile watch out for the PPIP announcement, another scam.
Treasury use Tax payer monies to mark up banks bad assets, and give risk free gain to Private Equities and Banks. Banks bid up one another assets.

If Jesus was found by the trail of shooting stars. The Beast is found with the three stars on different time plane. The Beast has no where to run.

With the liquidity thinning in the coming days, Euro would ramp through 1.4200, 1.4300 then approach the pinnacle at 1.4400. 250 pips from here.

While SPX would struggle at 888-900 in next days, before the climax plunge.

Meanwhile:

WSJ reports Dallas housing department over report Housing Resale figure.

H1N1 update
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124642190802178481.html
Buenos Aires has only 26 so far, less than those who die in accidents (as the government would so claim), so keep up the effort, Swine.

A disturbing fact happens that a lot of death during the 1970 outbreak comes from side effects of the vaccine.

http://www.scottmcpherson.net/
Tamiflu resistant cases have surfaced. Basically the world has no cure now.
Sell Roche at will.

1 Jul Three Stars - Daily, Weekly, Monthly Dojis





With an ironic twist, we would see THREE STARS to mark the vanquish of the FALLEN one.
Though Equities may be dropping, not so sure about Euro. Let say when Equities drop, Euro should drop, and the Chinese comes in to buy up the Euro on mass quantity.


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Denninger has asked the aware public to join him to protest against the EVIL FED and their meddling in the market.

"No non-essential purchases of anything are made. Period.

What's an essential purchase? Here's the list:

Enough food to eat at home. No more eating out.
Rent and utilities.
Essential medical services.
Enough fuel to get to and from work."


Personally, I am cutting down on petrol consumption, stay at home more, cut down on restaurants. When I have a cough, I try to heal myself. Anyway thrift is a virtue, save up for better times.

Anyway with the H1N1 spreading, it is safer to stay at home more than to regret.