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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

30 June Monthend dress













FED manipulation splashed out in Public.

There are some Dresses the market usually wear, halfyearly, Xmas, it would come no matter how.
I can't post any more charts. so sad.
I have one that shows Euro going to 1.4400 before dropping to 1.2500.

Monday, June 29, 2009

29 June. Euro to 1.4400 first

If Madoff gets 150 years, how about those Bank Executives and FED officials who use taxpayers monies for personal gains ?

When the next Administration sits, the justice would be pursued. Especially those who rig the markets.

If you are one of them, you better run, far far away from US.

Am waiting to take profit on my Shanghai A-shares HK H shares ETF.
Still queuing my QQQQ at 38.

Bias is up for this window dressing. Last Christmas window dressing carried on into early Jan, before the market rolled over.

My 2nd star never come on Monday. Would wait for the next star.

NFP may turn out to be non-event, beware of Obama rigging with census employment.

H1N1 update
now Dutchies report Tamilflu is useless. Argentina hospitals are breaking at the seam.
We can foresee US hospital system on verge of collapse in coming Winter months.

The most important thing watching for is cluster fatality, e.g. a high case fatality ratio of 2-3%.

North Korea
US decide to stop any media coverage on the NK ship. Well, why have the UN resolution in the first place, if it is not to be enforced.

When Iran settles, it would ramp up its nuclear program.

29 June Sign of times. Waiting for 2nd star.

I turned on TV, and here a broker babbling about the market. He forsees further rally in the market after 2 Qtr earnings annoucement in July. His advice to his audience is buy on dips sell on rallies.

While taking my sip of tea in a alfresco cafe, overhead some conversations (busybody me). On my right, a Japanese lady was telling a potential job seeker that she quit banking and now promoting Food and Beverage products into the local market.
On my left, another fellow interviewing a ex-Bank IT executive.

Went to a place of worship and meditate in a quiet hall of thousand images of God. Asked divine enligntenment on the future of this H1N1 fever.... Amidst the silence, I hear a faint cough, a few seconds later, the cough get louder, and louder and then the couhger fades.

Ask divine enlightenment on the future of the stock marlet. Waited, no noise. Nothing. Then I heard the guardian of the temple told another guest who just arrived: "take off your shoe".

Well, if you visit my blog to make monies. I would not want to disappoint you.

When the holidays come, it is time for sharp moves in currencies, especially when NFP is coming on Thursday as well.

So to long USD or short USD ?

Am waiting for the 2nd star today.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

27 June H1N1 in New York



Estimated H1N1 death in Europe Courtesy European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control ECDC.
Would you be one of the statistics ?

As US is not practicing containment, the onset of the pandemic would be faster, and end earlier. While those of Asia countries, Singapore, HK would take a while longer.


2 kids in New york turn worse. One dead, one on life support. Evidence of H1N1 mutated for the worse in United States ?
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06220901/H1N1_Buffalo.html

those who stay in New York, take extra precaution. Kids most vulnerable. Evil design, the person/organisation who created the virus is going after kids.

Dr Niman is advocating the virus has mutated for the worse.

http://www.oneradionetwork.com/patrick_talks_with_flu_expert_molecular_virologist_dr._henry_l._niman_on_the_flu_pandemic/

listen to it.

World War I ended because of the Spannish Flu. The fatality then was 2 to 3%.

Even though anti-biotics are around, people are still dying. When pandemics take off, the hospitals would be overwhelmed.

This swine flu would displace all other variants and become the dominant strain in the Northern Hemisphere this fall.

The 2009 flu is tracking the 1918 Spanish flu. It is swine, it spreads, it kills in young people, according to Dr Niman.

Young people die more probably because they kiss more. Number of people who have died is now exceeding 100. The misconception that the Mexican swine flu would not kill as much in US is wrong.

There is possibilty that H1N1 may combine with H5N1, the Avian Flu, which has a higher fatality, but does not spread efficiently among human.

Egypt has a high proportions of H5N1 (Avian Flu), which infects the young people < 5yrs old. As does China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam.

When H5N1 and H1N1 mixes. Evidence of a student flew from New York via Hong Kong to Shanghai. It has the swine flu with the E627 gene.

27 June Transformers-Revenge of the Fallen -> 1st star





Yes, we saw the first star of three as forecasted in my post on Wednesday.
"when dawn comes and three stars appear at the edge of the dagger, the key to the matrix would be found".

Hence next Monday, Tuesday, 29 and 30 June, we get the next 2 stars.
Then the key to the matrix would be found, and the Fallen one would be vanquished once more.

The high yesterday was 921. We may get the next 2 stars with high at about 930.

I think "3 fallen Kings" would be the most powerful Chart Pattern on history, stronger than "3 black crow".

BTW, look at weekly SPX, a STAR.

Dirty Billionaires update:

Jim Rogers said that he has no shorts in the market.

1:28pm, Jun 26, 2009
Billionaire tycoon Lee Shau-kee on Friday predicted that the Hong Kong stocks would cross the 20,000 level by end of this year.
(Mr Lee is the equivalent of George Soros in HK) He said he would buy at 16,000 sell a bit at 20,000. Hang Seng Index now at 18,600

On 1 March 2008, Mr Lee said the Hang Seng index would recover to 27000 when the market was hovering at 24000. In May 2008, market recover to 26000 and then head south to 11000.

North Korea ship update
http://news.aol.com/article/us-will-...nkorean/532999

US says it would not board the ship, expressing doubt that the ship carries any contraband.
Ok, then we might as well not have the UN resolution.

Now the US is Ostrich with the head in the sand. Now nobdoy reporting where is the ship, in HK ?

There is another twist, saying that Burma wants to acquire Nulear technology from North Korea. Burma has an official target to be nuclear enabled by 2025. 16 more years from now.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6594445.stm

Now, is this ship sending rice, iPones, or nuclear gadgets to Burma ?

Thinking aloud, what would the world becomes when all the evil states have nuclear weapons, e.g. Burman, North Korea, Iran.

Then you know what, China would be surrounded by all nuclear weapon states: India, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea and Burma.
I think that is the long term hidden objective of United States of America. Then it would not be a Bull in China (to quote from Jim Rogers) but A China Bull in a nuclear stockpile.

Stock market manipulation upate
If you are a stock investor, and you are making monies, you should say thankyou to the Good Samaritans, and read this article.

If you are losing monies, you must also read this article.

If you never invested any monies, you must also read.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...goldman-sachs/

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16763183/TaibbiGoldmanSachs

If you hear those TV hosts talking about a Rolling Stone columnist, it is Matt Taibbi, his articles is now one of the best read this week.

H1N1 update
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4419930,00.html

Mutation has happened. Get ready.

US Economy
ELKHART, Indiana: To understand just how grim things have gotten in this northern Indiana town, consider a new law passed last month by the City Council that limits residents to one garage sale a month.

AND Citigroup is planning to increase staff basic salaries by 50%, Goldman Sachs giving away Billions in bonus.

What the hell is Obama doing ? Is this Change that work, change we need ?

Friday, June 26, 2009

26 June Michael Jackson passed away



Dryship peaked out. China with reducing Export, and FDI, would see its forex reserves reducing, i.e. it would be more cautious with expanding stimulus.

Meanwhile Buffet talking about 2nd stimulus package. The first 750 billions is now down the drain.

Meanwhile Euro gunning for 1.4150 before another down move

SPX expected to test 930, if exceeded towards 950. Reason: monthend dressing.

New Cliche: Reluctant Buying
Institutions are hold at gun point, or on the verge of rape to BUY the market. The word "Reluctant Buying" is coined by a trader on CNBC.

Hollywood in mourning
First it was Carridine, now Michael Jackson. Hollywood icons passing away in rapid succession. Sign of the times.

Transformer - Revenge of the Fallen
As told in the movie the rally would halt when at dawn, 3 stars appear at the edge of the dagger, the key to the matrix would be found.

Am watching for 3 Dojis. One likelihoood is SPX would be in holding pattern next Tueaday 30/06, 01/07, 02/07 (3 days Doji formation) a drop on the shortened 03/07.
I.e. today Friday, and next Monday, SPX would continue its rise towards 930-950.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

25 June Bernanke said "he cannot remember".

Heliben said he cannot remember to advoid Perjury when questioned by Senator Dan Burton.

You can see Heliben with deep seated black eyes, apparently lack of sleep. His fate for second term is now sealed. Summers is clearly absent.

Now can the public remember the plunge last November and this March ?

Reuters article: Bernanke, a Machiavellian Schemer?
http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUS324433426620090625

You see Bernanke sturggling, sad to see. He is trying to deny whatever was recorded on emails.

Ben, it is time to let go.

Yesterday surge was attributed to FED altering and lengthening duration of the loan programs.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55O4DO20090625
Some alleges there are front running of the news.

25 June Support Congressman Darrell Issa

Update 7:20 am
--------------
CNBC obviously hostile to Issa, when its host suggest that Issa is building anti-Bernanke wagon for others to hop on.
Wagon or no wagon, we wants to TRUTH.


Issa is one chunk of an orator, Issa for the next Republican President.













Republican Darrell Issa, 49th District of California on pursuit of Ben Bernnake threat on BoA Kent Lewis.

This is part of a larger conspiracy to unseat Ben Bernanke in his next January nomination for 2nd term.

Goto Congressman Issa contact form, and voice your support for his brave action.
I call on all my followers to goto the Contact form, and write your anger at the FED.

http://issa.house.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contact.ContactForm

WE need beacons of TRUTH amidst the rule of the BEAST.

The next shoe to drop would be the FEDERAL RESERVE, collapsing under its greed and cronyism. This would qualify as a Black Swan event.
Watch the movie "DRAG ME TO HELL", and you know what I mean.

Obama plan to withdraw from IRAQ may soon collapse when Bombing escalate in Iraq. And the firing of NK missle on Hawaii on 4 Jul.

Meanwhile Euro on the verge of Breakdown. I am waiting for the THREE STARS on the edge of the Dagger for the FALLEN to be vanquished once more.

Meanwhile the North Korea nuclear ship has now sailed past Taiwan Straits, closing in on Hong Kong. Should be near Singapore by coming Sunday as written in my earlier post. Then the Singapore government would be called into action, when the ship docks for refuelling. Singapore has one of the best military forces in Asia. It would do what China and US dare not.

In case you guys did not notice, GOLD has changed trend. It is now rising with rising USD. Meaning in next weeks, when Equities tumble, GOLD would be the winner. Not commodities, no Crude. Gold will break 1000 this time.

Once DXY breaks 81.50, the meltdown in Equities would begin in earnest, in an extended 3 of 3 impulsive formation.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

24 June Transformer Revenge of the Fallen

Update 2:12 am--------------
Bought some C, awaiting surge.
Bond auction today good, mood is good.
Violent reaction expected.........

Euro, crude pulling back. USD index rises.

who is right ?

---------------------------------------------------------

http://www.transformers2.net/

yes, the Divine has given another sign, which I shared with my reader yesterday.

Revenge of the Fallen, the Fallen one, the Devil has risen again. (SPX has now rose above 900 once more).

Probably once FOMC statement is released, Bernanke would release thousands of AutoBots in the system to push up the indices.

When would the rally end ?

As Divine has said in the movie:
"When the 3 stars rise at the end of the dagger, the key to the matrix would be uncovered."
From there the Fallen one would be vanquished once more.

MD of S&P on TV talking of Deleveraging and the right PE.
Of course the PE ratio is built on imagination.
Those Whales positioning for short trade, when pushing higher finds no dumb buyers.
Having said that, a surge to kill the weak shorts is in the cards.

All Obama can say about the Iran protest and the dead Iranian gal, all he can says is "it is heart breaking". He has completely let down the democratic reform forces in Iran.
As his brother Osama said, Obama has sowed the seed of hatred in the Muslim world.

The Middleeast would be more fragmented and more dangerous in years to come, not unexpected of the works of the Beast, the real one.

Iranian woman interviewed on CNN crying, narrating the harrowing account at the police action at Tehran. She shouted "it is Hitler".

Hitler, Obama, Ahmadinejaad, Osama all different faces of the BEAST.

24 June Caution

Ahead of tricky Ben FOMC statement, caution warranted.
Some Hedge Fund shadow blog dismissing the importance of the FOMC statement. Caution.

Euro rebounded, Crude rebounded.
Euro Head and Shoulder pattern invalidated. i.e. now heading for 1.5000.
May be completing a Five pattern.

Hence those who short Equities, be careful.

Crude may also be completing 78-80, wave 5.

While Equites may have another rally into 960 before topping out finally.

OR
are all these just the wave 2 rebound followed by a SHARP down drop Wave 3, that may just send Crude back to 45.

And SPX back to 750 ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=agN9heAAh8lY

Mainstream media calling for 10% correction or 96 points drop from 956, ie 860-870.

Hence expect herds to come in at that level, but is that the bottom of this correction ?

Our good frens Good Samaritans (GS) is now talking about dispersing billions of bonus, after reaping the market from one directional trade. and Citigroup increasing base salary. They have made their monies, thanx to Ben Bernanke. While millions are still jobsless.

This would serve as a Casestudy in years to come, when scholars debate the benefits of Keyniesians economics and its failure.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

23 June Euro rebound ?

Since 2 am ET Euro has been on a ladder climb. now just holding 1.4000.
If it fails 1.4000, i.e. it is going to fall through 1.3700 next.

Meanwhile Equities futures are up. If this the last one before the plinge ?

Euro high was 1.4027, probably to sustain till US open.

The Washington Train crash fiasco highlights the problem with the Metro system: lack of Funds, wornout trains in service for 30 yrs, failing infrastructure,
where has Obama Stimulus monies gone to ???

My Call on 18 June:
Short EURO 1.4000
target 1.3700
Stop 1.4030

Seems like the market maker wants to take my stops. Last high was 1.40379.

Monday, June 22, 2009

22 June Assassination of Obama: the Singapore connection

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20090622-150049.html

Bold topic. shold attract much attention.

Crude has dropped below 69. The Equites are a bit retarded.

now commentaries circulating that China stimulus monies seeped into Commodities and stock market. Companies take up loan with state bank to stockpile Commodities and invest in Equities.
In the process, national interest hurt e.g. failure of Chinalco to acquire Rio Tinto.

Shanghai stock market has been rising incessant, since the flood gate for 400 IPOs was just lifted last week.

Sombody wrote the Credit Suisse loaded up a lot of IYR last week. more housing sales coming along, speculators flipping properties, selling to late comers.
probably program trading protecting 900.
Herry Dent said today that the next yr there would be a crash, however market to go up in next few months.

In my earlier post, I said I am watching 888, key support. once broken, it is waterfall, hence Bernanke has a chance on Wednesday 2:15 pm to stem the fall.

Would Bernanke annouce more purchases of Treasuries ? If yes, then we would have another leg up for Equities, down for USD, long yields down.

22 June Monday blues

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE55I4W520090619

http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2009/PR09.09E.html

LHC restart in Autumn, guess what date ? 9 September 2009 999 ?

Also the North Korean ship is on its way to Myanmar via Singapore and the Malacca Straits. It takes 9 days from NK to Singapore. And Singapore has vowed to act.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

21 June North Korean ship heading for Singapore




http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/19/military-set-intercept-north-korean-ship-suspected-proliferatin-missiles-nukes/

http://news.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/Singapore/Story/A1Story20090621-149943.html

Latest:
-------
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=32885

now Iran trying to accuse Britian of vote rigging. what would happen to Crude ?


Seems like Singapore would be the UN sanction enforcement port when the ship enters for refuel. Singapore government has pledged to act.
Just curious if North Korean ICBM can reach Singapore (5000 km).
Probably if the ICBM can reach Hawaii (7500 km).

The ship may carry nuclear materials for Iran.

Let us see how VIOLENT can the North Korean get. Would it threaten to point a ICBM towards South East Asia ? (anyway its missles is not very accurate).

OR would the ship goto Hong Kong for refuel ? HK nonetheless is land of China, a pseudo ally of North Korea.

Singapore is home to key US navy installations and home to a lot of Americans (those who run away to evade taxes, like Jimmy Roguer, Jetsetting Li, etc)

The question is if Obama choose to be a Ostrich ? and pass all its problems to its allies.

If I am the North Korean ship captain, I do not mind being landed in Singapore and have a tour and stay at nice hotel, and may be seek asylum.

Nonetheless this remind me of the Cuban Missle Crisis under then President John F. Kennedy.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1193941/North-Korea-plan-missile-launch-Hawaii-Independence-Day.html

NK may launch missle on Independence Day.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

20 June Indian Summer



Baltic Dryship shows sign of stalling.


Now the Crude showing characteristics resembling last year 147 top. trapped in a rectangle for days. At the same moment last year Vitoil was found to rig the market by buying contracts at market close. No idea what happened to the investigation.

If Crude breaks 69 on Monday Europe open, that is it. Probably a lot of investors gunning for the 75 and 85 target. Like 200 when Crude was at 147.

In general, the public is quite bullish still. Public seeking yields by parking monies in Funds. and Fund manager just buy, buy, buy. Public seeking safety parking monies in Properties, and developers build, build, build.

The bottom would come only when public stop buying anything altogether.

While Obama wants to prevent people from going into Foreclosures by sponsoring those with negative equities on their household. The news is not prominant (or the media chose not to report it) but with immense implication.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avAvJacs7UcU

Obama is doing this probably because the Banks are at stake. Hence the scam Banks stress test are not worthy anymore.
In this summer (when people are not paying attention), there would be people leaving the Obama administration, and Banks executives leaving, ahead of the coming Tsunamis. (Watch for this as a confirmation). Meanwhile, Barney the purple Dinos wants to sack Bank Executives if bank fails.

As for Euro, shorted from 1.4000, stops at 1.4030, may be Monday Asia open, it would aim higher, and then tank after Europe starts.

Some casual reading:
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_392969.html

This market guru (the Singapore version of George Soros) was buying heavily into Treasuries, once reason being he sees a risk of Obama being assasinated. The market guru is claiming 1 billion USD loss against CitiBank. (now it seems the Life of the Beast can be Financial Instrument, ETF Ticker "666", anyway, you guys read about "the Beast that comes from the Ocean and it would suffer a mortal wound in the head story ?")

Ealier the Guru bought AIG at $1 and sold it at $5, he made a couple of millions and donated all profits to charity.

Let us wish that he wins and hopefully Citibank is still around then.

Now North Korea aiming missles at Hawaii, the hometown of Obama, his relatives are mostly in Hawaii. What a coincidence. With the ascent of the Beast, the world is now in a more dangerous place, and the citizens are poorer.

http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/19_36.html

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.594b3919f568748326be82a3a65d7646.241&show_article=1



Meanwhile there are reports that H1N1 has mutated, whether more lethal or more benigh unknown. When we hear reports of sudden rise in Death in a particular community, that would be D-Day, Allied Forces have landed Omaha.

Most of the cases in Asia originated from California, New York and Melbourne. Obiviously these cities are severely lacking in containment. When there is a turn for the worse, these cities would be ghost towns.

And there are Governments asking people to go-on life as usual. Let me ask the Government person, would you let you children out and get infected ?

The world has morph to such a situation when society interests override individual concerns, in situation like this H1N1, Bank crisis, etc. The wills of the ruling few imposing their wish on the citizens, while selfishly protecting their own.


The future of this H1N1 would be high death rate in metropoles (because of the ways the Governments are handling this crisis with a blind eye), the young being especially vulnerable. Worldwide activites, passenger traffic would grind to a halt.
(on 7 June 2009, while lying on my bed looking at the Full Moon, I have a sense that the mutation is complete)

"Truth, you can't handle the Truth" said Morpheus.

Some more,
BoA Investment bankers (ex-ML) exodus, IM business in peril and yet BAC is rising. So you guys know which Bank is going to fall the hardest.

Dick Bove says Citi a buy, target 12 dollars.

Friday, June 19, 2009

19 June USD stalling

with USD stalling, the H&S pattern on Euro is now invalidated. Though it is still below my stops, I would not be in a haste to sell Euro for now.

SPX is now at critical juncture below 930.

Both Crude and SPX showing non-confirmation of the last low, SPX at 903, Crude at 69. we would have confirmation soon if this is a new round of rally, taking SPX above 930, Crude above 73.

Then Crude would target 85, SPX target 1000. Euro to go towards 1.4500.

Hence be way of shorts.

19 June Funny Euro

Crude still maintaining on its up channel. Euro interesting after one day still holding below 1.4000, high was 1.4001.

SPX did a rebound, high was about 922.
no panic in the market, probably, it would not draw out serious buyer.

If the SPX 5 waves playout, Wave 1 956-903 = 53 points, Wave 2 903-921,
wave 3 = 868 minimum, this would place wave 5 somewhere near 850. A 100 points correction or the first part of a bear move ?

i.e. Euro from 1.4000 to 1.3700. Would Euro goes to 1.3200 ?

Thursday, June 18, 2009

18 June Euro drop soon



Market is awfylly boring. despite the fact that SPX does fall, it is nothing of much interest to the Asia market. Absense of buying, makes the indices fall naturally, with some occasional surge to thrill the punters.

Some interesting news:
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_392026.html

This pertains to a Barclay Fund which was claimed to generate 10% dividend yield each yr over 5 five yrs (sounds like Madoff, unfortunately the Bank girl has no monies to wine and dine the client, but to forge a letter promising the 10% yield. Sounds like a customer baiting the UOB bank). This incident happen in July 2007, before the blowup of Lehman.

Investors now are more cautious in investing, but more willing to take up loans with banks for properties. This would lead in time to a situation wherby Banks income would diminish while Debt would increase.

This is now a new found optimism in the market however Prof Shiller has a good piece on people expectation on property price increase over time. He called the recent rebound in property sales Speculative in nature.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_391509.html?vgnmr=1
A KungFu film star went on a splurge and buy Bangalows in Singapore. Me, for one, watch only DVD, cheap DVDs.
Sounds like Holywood is in a Bubble as well.

Bloomberg William Pesak has written a piece on the 134 Billion USD Bond fiasco, it is now carried in major media.

The H&S pattern in Eurusd is now well publicised, in media as well.
Euro now in a rising Wedge to buy time.
I was of the opinion that the swing may last till Monday, up the ladder.
However I notice the similar W formation on the earlier holding pattern and current one. We may have a drop when Europe open to complete the H&S.

Short EURO 1.4000
target 1.3700
Stop 1.4030


As for Equities, I start to pick up a lot of talk that yesterday low was the low,
probably because of program trading protecting 900.

So far Asia is dropping in a measured way. Anyway week before, Bernanke said the market would correct in a controlled way.

Yes, everybody is expecting a Correction. Not many people is expecting a Waterfall.

Seems like GOD is gracious, walking the Devil to the Heaven gate before the final sendoff.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

17 June US update

Larry Kudlow says now is a buying opportunity.

Ya, right, Crude now on cliff edge 69.
May CPI shows Inflation is not yet here. This pops the commodity rally.

now FED coming out to say Demand is weak, S&P downgrades Bank. Everybody dun want Interest Rate Hike, rather stay in a deflationary mode.

What would FOMC says in its statement, I would leave it for my Weekend Commentary. I have been watching FED since 2005.

You can give your comments on what FED would say in next week statement.

17 June EURUSD Battle Cry

ladies and gentleman, boys and gals, time to goto Battle once more.

The market is pitiful, lethargic. we need to move the markets ourself. I hope to move the EURUSD and then trigger subsequent moves in Crude, Equities and Bonds.

Short Euro 1.3940 to 1.3950
Stoploss 1.3960
Short Term Target 1.3700

I have lined up Gandalf, Elf, Gondor Knights, the Hobbits behind me,
and swiped my BoA CREDIT CARD to the fullest to Short 50 contracts of EURUSD.

IF I lose, I wold let BoA credit Card pick up the bills, and I walk away.

Ready for Battle, CHARGE !!!!!!

17 June Fire Drill

SPX reached a low of 911. probably triggered by Best Buy weak results, and jump in VIX.
One analyst O'Neil says the pull back may last for a few weeks. 2 days we go from 956 to 919, where woud be go in 5 days, 10 days, 15 days ?

So far Asia market is very wel behaved, dropping less than 1% so far, Crude is resilient at 70.

A peek over my window, I see office workers from another highrise building participating in a Fire Drill. Everybody slowly march from their office to gather in the open field. There is no panic. Everybody is happy.

Yes, "Fire Drill" is the best word to describe the current market moves. everbody welcomes it.

Watch Crude at 68, USD at 1.3738 before people realise it is NOT a FIRE DRILL. The Gate of Heaven at 888. The battle would then begin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Obama%20Says%20%60Robust'%20Growth%20Will%20Prevent%20Tax%20Increases&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vhTSXcWpK9Bw.asf
Obama says Robust Growth would prevent Tax increase. We are not going to see Robust Growth, and hence we are going to see a hell lot of TAX INCREASES in everything, including healthcare plans.
Scram US as fast as you can. The BEAST who is the BEST ORATOR on Earth told you what he is going to do.

For Euro the battle at 1.3738 would begin on Wednesday at 3am ET. I shall make the Battle Cry.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

16 June BOB DOLL says...look ahead

Bloomberg plays a large advert for BlackRock Bob Doll, saying "the worst is not over, but look forward". ya right, look forward, and miss the manhole underneath, watch you wallet.

This week is BRIC then OPEX, next week is FOMC. LEt us see if we get three Black Crow on SPX.
The Asia morning was down, and then afternoon session was well bought, recovering 3/4 of losses. Expect a up morning for SPX towards 930. ans see if Good Samaritans come in to pop it above 940 once more.

ZEW shows a large pop, at least we know next month would not be significantly better if not fall. Now we are in the climax, euphoria stage of the rally. A lot of side monies shold have moved in and long interest open.

The pop of Euro after ZEW only 30 points, got to show the weakness of Euro meanwhile among all the Bearish USD talk.

Obama trying to push HealthCare. For an Orator, words are more important than actions.
As for Isreali Nathanyahoo who basically gives Obama words: recognise Palestine state but on conditions of demilitarisation, recognise Jewish character of Israeli state. One empty reply to a empty request.

As you can see now, why Obama is able to tackle so many things at the same time. It is because it is just hot air. You can blow as many baloons as you want, but you know it would go flat, that include the stimulus package. Monies spent going nowhere. E.g. schools paid to purchase new kitchens. How many jobs would it create, probably the boss get the fat tax payer monies with his stagnant stock.

16 June Exorcism of Obama Rally update



Euro to watch target of H&S at 1.3253. However breaking of 1.3738 is most important to nullify the scenario of Wave 4. If 1.3738 broken, a max of 1.2890 is possible.
Confirmation MACD make a lower low possible.

Crude to watch 67.5, then 58 and finally 45. should expect some meandering at 45.

Divergence in Euro, expect some recovery in Euro during Asia and till Europe open.

The event to watch is the BRIC meeting, the equivalent of the US led G7. Market is expecting some sort of Dollar Negative measure adopted by the BRIC meeting, such as common super currency, direct currency swap among BRIC countries.

However Russia's Kudrin has reaffiermed its support of USD yesterday. If the BRIC is to move away from USD, they would do it secretly, like sending agents selling Bonds in Switzerland, hoping some Billionaires out there would buy.

However my stance is that market would sell Euro on the news. I.e. USD continue its rally.

Asia retreat today is modest. No panic. We may expect Equities buying to come into Asia. SPX dropped lowest 919, a retest of 930 of the Flat. Based on pattern, a target of 905 is possible.

I am in the camp that the top has come at 956.23. As the volume was light, do guard against a Bear Trap scenario. So far it is the much anticipated correction, everybody is looking for.

Today would be critical, whether USD rally would continue which means SPX would continue to drop.

However I believe as I have been told, those Bull would literally be DRAGGED to hell. That got to say that they are not prepared for the fall. If they are prepared, they would have run, right ?

Exorcism Update
---------------

the Priest asked the posssesed "SPX", "what your name ?"

SPX says "we are a legion". "It is me, Timmy" "It is me, Benny" "Summo" "Blanky" "Dolly".......

The Priest says "In the name of Jesus, I cast you all to hell, and burnt in hell for eternity".

Monday, June 15, 2009

15 June Short Euro watch 1.3800

yes, watch Euro for a bounce at 1.3800. The problem with the current drop in Euro is that it is too slow, controlled drop.

we can see divergences on 5 mins chart. 15 mins charts as well.

however would not go long agreesively.

16 June Start of the week

Asia is dropping slightly, however in small percentages < 1%. Euro lethargic, meandering, Crude at 71.59, still above the Trendline support at 71.

The Asia traders could not take decision and waiting for their Europe counterparts to give advice.

If the week prior is bull, the Monday after that is usually a pullback, so far all the Monday pullbacks have been bought into. Let see if the Good Samaritans would come in on Monday US to buy the dips.

Asia update 1:10 am ET
----------------------
so far Asia market drop less than 2%. no sign of panic. HSI 1.5% drop. While Shanghai market holding on well.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

14 June Triple Witching week

now, let us face the reality. The market has been reluctant to fall, afraid that too many investors would buy on the cheap.
Based on historical records, on a Triple Witching Week, the bias is bullish.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=93530&obspage=2

Hence trade cautiously. Wait for confirmation.

14 June "Drag me to HELL"



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drag_Me_to_Hell

the movies caught my eye, it was premiered in US on 29 May. Its theme is most appropriate at this time.
A lady loan officer rejected the extension of loan for a old haggard Gypsy, and was subsequently cursed. This got so much to say of Banks not lending, and the greed of Bank Executivtes, Government officials, and they deserve that they see in the movie.

The movie "Fast and Furious 4" released on 3 April fortells of the rally of Wave 4.

And then "Angel and Demons" foretells of the battle of SPX at 888 (greek numerals for Jesus).

And now "Drag me to hell" foretells of the subsequent plunge to HELL.
Now True Christians knows that Satan stays above HELL, and the demarkation of HELL is at 666.

When Summers end, who do we have ? we have WINTER, L. Summers replaced by K. Winters. When Summers depart early to reap the offerings of the Demons, Winters would fall upon those that received the gift of Summers, as the Curse says.

Now, let see who would be dragged and burn in HELL for eternity ? BaC, C, JPM, MS, GS ? Those who are going to be burnt would scream the loudest.

Let us commence the exorcism rites on this Demon led rally:

"I cast all of you out in the name of Jesus, banish you from the Gate of Heaven to Hell."

Saturday, June 13, 2009

13 June Bond Uncle Sam's Bond continued

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=ayy1QKcwcGN0

It is now reported in Bloomberg. Waiting for the Italian authorities to give clarifications.

so far the Italians are quiet. This further strengthen the talk that Japanese government is now dumping US Bonds secretly in Switzerland, trying to mask the origin.

Ironically, both US and Japan may deny the stories. And 134 Billions bonds become antique paper, locked up by the Italian government forever.

Or to put it simply, US bonds are virtually worthless.

13 June Beginning of the END. ((mark this date ))

In Iran Admadinejad officially declared winner. His rival Mousavi is now under siege in his HQ.
If Obama can cheat, so can Admadinegad.

http://dollarpro.blogspot.com/2008/04/23-april-spear-of-destiny.html

If you see my Blog on 23 April, I called for the top of Euro at 1.6000 with the Spear of Destiny formation. Which we now see on the hourly chart of Crude.

you can catch my archives on dollarpro.blogspot.com which is like a financial diary of sort.

North Korea now threatens to weaponise its nuclear plutonium after UN declared sanctions. China however has warned against military strikes.

Probably NK is going to shoot a missle across the bow, over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. Let us see the Patriots on Monday who are buying Nikkei above 10,000.

US has gone weaker just 5 months after Obama takes over. Remember as of last year, Christopher Hills was still doing well in Korea.

Yes, I warned of catastrophic events on Friday, we are seeing the beginning of a sequence of events.

Is it not concidential that both Iran and NK featuring at the same time ?

12 June Japan Central Bank selling Bonds secretly in Italy.

I have attached a Youtube video on Japan central banks selling US bearer bonds in Switzerland. 2 Japanese agents were caught on the border between Switzerland and Italy. Total 130 Billion USD.

While Bernanke is rigging the 30 years Tbills pushing prices up. His colleagues in Japan are secretly selling US Bonds.

Know what, our Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN do not report this. Talk about US Media, what a shame.

13 June Obama and Iran


Obama stategy on MiddleEast has been conceived as one of reaching out to the MiddleEasterners, with the consecutive trips to Turkey, Egypt and Saudi.

As you know Obama is afterall an orator (trickster), talk only and no action. No action is exactly what he is doing. By making friendly overtures to the MiddleEasterners, he tried to sway the Election in Beirut and Iran.

The Europeans know fully well what Obama is about, and are worried about US letting Iran own Nuclear Weapons eventually.

Pro-westerners won in Beirut. And the showdown in Iran yesterday turns out 2 winners, the pro-western Mousavi and Ahmadinejaad, each claiming victory. According to CNN, seems like Admadinejaad has the upper hand with 60% votes, which to the Western media is unbelievable, especially when the turnout is huge, and economy bad.

Hence we would have incessant claims of election riggings, while Mousavi protests on the sidelines. While US and Western media would heap claims of non-democratic elections. (if Obama can cheat Taxpayers monies, so can Admadinejjadd cheats votes).

Admadinejaad would continue to face greater pressure in his second term. And to shield his government from the badly managed economy, he would have to take risks, pursue his nuclear program, hoping to instigate Israel retaliation.

Obama may taking sides on the election indirectly would actually engender the wrath of those radicals.

The US government has gone weaker each day with its diplomatic choices. Hilary is conspicously out of action. So is Biden.

As for North Korea, Obama has decided to leave it to China and United Nations to deal with NK.

Hence that leaves open the door for North Korea to exchange knowhow with Iran. North Korea shares with Iran its Nuclear Weapon program for cash. North Korea is most wary of sealane blockade. If there is any sealane blockade, North Korea would react violently.

This week Lawrence Summers claim victory on the economic recovery at the Council of Foreign Relations meeting. What would end the Summers ? Ladies perhaps, just like woman rage ended his term at Havard.

While Bernanke using proxies rigged the 30 years Tbills sales, pumping prices higher, driving yields down. He can keep on doing it at every sale, however other Soverign Banks are smart. So it seems it is victory for Bernanke again.

The harder the action, the harder would be the reaction. When Yields rocket next time, the FED would be helpless.

Let us watch if Crude drops below 71 on coming Monday. A lot of institutions traders have taken long positions in Crude. When the cut loss comes, it would be most painful.

USD Index has spent almost 3 weeks in the range of 79 to 81. When the Breakout come, it would be fast and furious. Expect Crude, Gold, Euro, as well as Equities to tank.

SPX has to drop below 920 convincingly to trigger any cut loss. USD index to 83, Euro to 1.3800, Gold to 870 to 900 (Gold being the canary in the mine, already has a confirmed H&S pattern).

My scenario is for Crude to break its support 70.4, then 67.6 and down towards 45.
Even when Crude is at 45, it is still in a Bull Trend, after which we would enter a new era of Hyperinflation in 2010,2011. Crude exceeding 150 towards 200.

I am in the Stagflation camp.

Friday, June 12, 2009

12 June the Crude Spear of Destiny




Crude pop above the upper channel, and now on the verge of the lower trendline. Crude essentially in a SPEAR formation, the SPEAR that killed Jesus.
Who holds the SPEAR of DESTINY would drive the market down into hell.

If CRUDE ram down 71 in the last minutes of trading, then this Crude rally is over, so does Equities and everything else.

For those who remembered GOLD at 1030, the same Destiny Spear shows up.

we are still 4 hours from US market close. Let see.

Some commercial, if you are not making monies with your account, it is time to check out other Brokers, starting from here. New Broker, resurrection comes.

12 June Bonds, Uncle Sams's Bond



nonconfirmaiton of the Euro ramp up yesterday, MACD negative divergence. if you are conservative, short from 1.4200 to 1.4230

Short Euro 1.4200 to 1.4230
Target 1.4000 then 1.3800
stoploss 1.4250



http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=15456&size=A

This news is hardly reported on National TV, despite of its signifcant implications.

IT is either:
crooks selling fake bonds, OR
Japanese central bank dumping Bonds in Europe, 130 Billion USD, as those agents were Japanese.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apWVhFYArRhg
Meanwhile Japanese Finance Minister has full faith in US Treasuries, while he sent 2 Japanese to sell US Bonds in Italy. Japanese, always Japanese, sneaky, like a rodent.


Yesterday 10 years Yields backdowned after the 30 yrs notes auction (while Equities rallies), which implies Central Banks are still interested in US Treasuries. Or do they know something that the general market does not ? I.e. USD going to fly, and deflation scare comes once more ? We are talking about the China Central Banks who had meet Geithner beginning of this month. Are they convinced that US Treasuries is once again safe instruments ? and they demand less yields ?

The rallying market has now a new logic, Equities relies on Bonds, Crude for direction. It has lost any other reasons for rally.

So far USD has not budged. Or rather the sellers are not ready yet.

The Conspiracy Theory is that the Asia Central Bankers are silently selling US Treasuries, while meanwhile supporting USD, and buying amounts of 30 Tbills to put up a facade.

Hence my near term strategy is to ride the rally of USD, and selling off US assets at the right time. Medium term, exit out of USD assets and USD itself, or any currencies with peg to USD, e.g. HKD, SGD (basket currencies).

Update: 4:10 am ET
------------------
God spoke to me, something catastrophic is going to happen.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

11 June 11:30 am ET update

taken half profit at 1.3950.
Euro rally higher high, confirmation to go higher. stoploss triggered.

would wait for opportunity to short.

11 June 8:30 am ET update

Euro is on target reaching objective. once it reaches objective near 1.3810-1.3830 time to take profit. Bcos probably it would show a MACD nonconfirmation on 15 mins chart.

That 1.3800 would also be our neckline, doubt if it would punch it on first move. Hence protect the profit, come back later for another Short.

Take profit at 1.3800-1.3830, then wait, when it retest breakout at let say 1.3900, go short again for 1.3450 eventually.

what happens after 1.3450 is anybody guess.

As for Equities, expect some pullback.

11 June 7:30 am ET

my post on the forex forum is deleted again. Confirmation of where market is heading, Euro heading down.

The forex broker has more information than us, they know everybody's postions and stops. the majority are still long Euro, and selling Euro is where the monies is for the broker.

Do give your comments if you agree. Otherwise time to look for an alternative broker, starting from this blog.

11 June update 4:35 am ET

I am making a Battle Call to defend Helmsdeep once more.

Short Euro 1.4030 to 1.4050
stoploss 1.4060
target 1.3850


I am sick and tired of the lethargic move of the markets. I call on Market Makers to inject Volatility into the markets. It is unbecoming of Market Makers. If Market Makers dun do anything, you would lose your job.

I Command Thee...

11 June Asia strong









Asia is very strong, infact back to levels last seen in May.

11 June Agent Smith in Forex forums

My disciple SIM want on the forex forum and wanted to warn the forum readers that some of those posters are actually agents of the Brokers (Agent Smith). And you know what he was banned as well.

Euro was poised for more drop at around 1pm ET and those Agent Smith comes out and said things like packing up and go off. It was obvious on the Charts that the drop is still unfinished.

Think if you guys follow the Forum, you are going to lose monies big time.

The following charts were given out to my subscribers today. and I would explain them tomorrow.

10 hours after I publish the chart of the H&S pattern on this blog and the Forex Forum,
the Forex broker analyst publish:
"Euro Carving Out Major Head & Shoulders Top (Daily Classical)
Wednesday, 10 June 2009 17:46:31 GMT"

by that time, Euro has already almost reached the neckline, 50% of the profits already taken, and now on support, it publishes this H&S advice.

OMG, if you follow your broker analyst, you lose monies for sure.
Most of those who post actively on forums are working for the brokers to catch the investors wrong footed.

It is time you guys explore some other neutral brokers.








Wednesday, June 10, 2009

10 June FOREX brokers. Sleeping with your enemy.

my post at a forex dealer forum got deleted, everytime I post.

I was calling for Euro to drop.

Short Euro 1.4130-1.4140
stoploss 1.4160
Target 1.3450


Obviously, I am right, otherwise the Forex site administrator would not bother to delete me.

Wow, they even delete all my previous post. Awesome....... Think you guys should starting looking for other brokers, starting from my website here.

Sometimes, you have to ask yourself, how can your FOREX broker afford the analyst, softwares, salaries with just 1 pip of spread. They are living on your STOPs. If you dun use STOPS, on your GUTs.

First they delete my current posts, then they delete my historical posts., then they ban me from posting.

Guess, you guys should start looking for other Brokers. starting from here.

10 June Bold call for Euro drop




Update 5 am ET
---------------
Euro did not took my stops at 1.4150, and now tanking towards 1.4090. It is not an easy call, when the Equities (which correlate well with Euro) is rallying, Crude made a new high today. However these are perfect timing for market turns when everybody is complacent and ill prepared. and where the monies going up is tougher than the monies going down.




the picture explains itself.
Bcos of a lot of retail interest in Long Euro positions, the market maker has no choice but to abandon the target of 1.5000 and come for it another day. As more and more public dabble in this market through CFD, Futures, spot, etc. the Volatility increases.

10 June waiting




Despite of all the negative news on USD, it is holding well.

China spokesman came out to dispel rumours of China selling USD. the 3 yrs Tbill bid rate was the highest than the past 10 auction average. Indirect bids was more than 40%, (though FED can buy its own Tbills through its Carribean account). All this project strength of USD.

Due to the steepness of this pullback, the bottom of the Right Shoulder is in, and I would expect a rally of USD again probably late into Europe open.

Once 81 is broken again, we would see 85-86 as target. From there, I would reassess if 90 is possible.

With USD in mind, I would expect Equities to have a pullback starting Wednesday into Friday. Whether FED would support SPX at 921 is the question. Monday low was 926. Once the 200 days moving average is broken at 921, it would trigger an avalanche of trailing stops, driving SPX below 900.

10 yr Yields seem to be stalling below 39. with news that FED would not ask for authority from Congress to buy more Tbills. An anti-inflationary stance. Hence FED have to rein back its QE otherwise it would be forced to increase Rate in September.

With Banks returning TARP monies, its implication is a withdrawal of Liquidity in the system.

With the BRIC countries meeting this week, any move to minimise use of USD would have significance. However doubt if China would do anything rash. Otherwise, we may see Crude jumping to 100.

Hence it is a Game of Cloaks and Daggers among nations.

Equities (Soil土) <=> USD (Water 水)<=> Crude oil (Fire 火)<=> Gold (Gold 金) <=> Real Estate ( Wood 木)

There is an intrinsic relationship among the 5 elements: soil, water, fire, gold and wood. I would elaborate this in my newsletter. From there, you can have a view of how the market is going forward.

The head of Standard Chartered in HK remarks that the Hong Kong market is in a frenzy, with investors piling in, afraid of missing the ride.
With the weak employment situation in HK, the only hope for the people is the Stock Market. With the implied backing of the China government, Hong Kong investors are assured of a supported bottom.

Hong Kong HSI would be the place for the next BIG BUBBLE. Think the Big Whales are already in the market. It is the market with the most monies on the sidelines, with the hardworking Hong Kongers.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

9 June a pause




USD index forming a right should in the next few days. for a target of 85. However would not be surprised if it is impatient and breakout from 81 today or tomorrow.

Meanwhile:
some USD negative talk from the Republican who went to China recently. China is fedup with US deficits and its QE program.
Bernanke QE program has actually put a hold on China ambition to acquire companies, making such companies more expensive and less willing to be bought. lately the failure of Chinalco to acquire Rio Tinto. And subsequently fueling inflation in China.

HSI showing some weakness, quite some selling. However there is no panic in market.

Monday, June 8, 2009

8 June Asia update

Update 3:15 am ET
-----------------
The meltdown in Euros has come again. Look at how it drops.
Crude still holding at 67, let us see any sellers coming in when Europe full wake up.



Asia showing resilience. open lower but recover at Lunch Time. Forex, Gold, Crude hardly changed from Friday close. Waiting for Europe to show directions.
Euro showing weakness, every rally heavily sold into.
FED Fund Futures predicting September Rate Hike.

Some market participants believe that the Equities would top out in October. I been to a talk by a FengShui master (geomacer, fotune teller), he told a crowd to watch out for October. That constitutes the belief among the well heeled investors that the rally would persist till then. Hence you see a good flow of investors buying mutual funds, buying properties.

Hence the question is: in October, is the crowd expecting a market top or a rate hike ?

H5N1 is lurking in the corner. It is now rampant in Melbourne, winter time. Once it hit the magical mutation, becoming more Virulent.
I would expect H5N1 to re-emerge in a more deadly form in North America sometime in September, when the weather is cooler. We could see more Hurricances this year, impinging on the Mexican Gulf, and a major Storm Surge in Manhattan.
Those who have a choice would be fleeing United States, together with their monies, before Obama enact Capital Gain tax.

If the 1918 Spanish Flu re-enact this year,
and Admadinejaad won the Iran election on 15 June, pledging faster Nuclear Development, with a subsequent Israel air strike.
and a major natural disaster happen, like Storm Surge submerging New York,
and Roaring Inflation,

Essentially we see the Four Horseman of Revelation. Aramgeddon has arrived.

8 Jue Banks Galore



In case, somebody tells you Equities is in Bull, you should look at 10 yr Yields and see a "REAL BULL" and not an imaginary mirage Bull. I think the media would start to use the phrase MIRAGE soon.







Looking at the charts, all except C shows a MACD confirmation of the last low.
what on earth would bring about the next plunge in Bank Stocks ?

JPM is struggling beneath its 200 days, GS still some more dollars towards its 200 days at 160. BAC well below. C is in hell.

A lot of Citigroup shares are held by foreigners, who bought at 10s, 20s.

And what would happen to Citigroup ? Think Citigroup may just end up like GM evetually.

The nightmare for Bernanke, is Equities Drop, while Crude, Euro, Gold rises, Treasuries Yield rises. i.e. Stagflation is comig in force.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

7 June another week another Bear Case

as I mentioned in my Friday post, I have this feeling we reached the top for this current rally.
I scour the cyberspace, looking for signs:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-13539.htm
http://www.tradingaces.blogspot.com/

The TradingAce blog was talking about the magic number 999 and some Fibonaci ratio. Seems like 950 or 6/6/09 is a turning date.

However you do not trade on this, but wait for confirmation.
Again the odds is against a turn, because next week, Fed would announce those Banks who can return TARP monies, and Obama going to announce rampup to the stimulus plans on Monday.
Generally everybody is bullish out there. Perhaps last Friday low was a good buy on the dip, like the buy at 888.
If there is any down move, it has to break the 200 days moving average at 920 to be of significance.

For my last post with the Chinese characters, the stories was about after deep winter, sakura appears, and then one night, a cold spell wilt all the flowers. A family pleed to GOD to return the flowers, and the flowers came about again the next day. I.e. the title of the story is Sakura springs a second time.

Update: 12:30 pm ET-------------------
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp500_200906/?campaignid=3
This trader teach you to set stoploss at 923. The trader has been long since 888.

Well, thing the Big Whales would come in at 920-921 if the drop ever comes.

Soros said on Sunday that the current rally has more legs to go, as monies are still on the sideline. Well, are these Smart Monies or Dumb Monies ?

Friday, June 5, 2009

5 June Sakura blooms a 2nd time

辰宮: 梅開二度

冬來嶺上一枝梅,葉落枝枯總不催;但得陽春悄急至,依然還我作花魁。

解曰:一箭射空。當空不空。待等春來。彩在其中。

For those who dun understand, it means second chance.

5 June Vindicated with my Bermuda Triangle call




Indeed a breakout of USD Index strength. Gold hit Bermuda Triangle and now should be on its way to the ocean. For SPX, I would be quite daring to call it to fall into Ocean as well.

10 year yield reached a high of 39 today. How do we reconcile it ?

10 yr yield up, Gold drop, Euro drop, Equities holding.

I think the market has lost its direction.

Whatever it is, never Short GOLD. MACD has confirmed Euro drop but not GOLD. Crude reached 70 and pulled back.

Well, we just attribute to a stronger USD, driving Euro, Commodities lower. Funds switching out from Tbills to US Equities.

If USD index breaks and stay above 81 today if not next Monday, we would see a major reversal of USD index. Nonetheless I am still long term bearish on USD.

Today SPX reached a high of 951.69. Somehow I "FEEL" this is the top for a while. Why ? I dun know. Divine would reveal itself in due time.

Further more I FEEL that we are going down towards 670 after this top has been accomplished. Again, why ? I dun know.

I only know that if you hit the Bermuda Triangle, everything disappears.

5 June SPX approaching Bermuda Triangle









Yesterday, Cantor Fritzgerald chairman Howard Lutnick, Jim Rogers and Larry Kudlow had a class reunion on the national TV.

Howard says bond yields would only rise in 2014, 2015 when real growth returns. I.e. he expect inflation to comes only in 5 yrs later.

Jim meanwhile, usual self, is inflation all the way, Equites going up, and for once he is not shorting any markets. fully invested in Commodities.

Technically speaking, the 10 yr yields weekly chart looks strong, and the breakout is confirmed on the daily chart. near term some pullback on Daily Chart.

When Bernanke announced QE, there was a sharp drop in 10yr yields, while Equities rallied. Now 10 yr yields has reversed and exceeded the drop. Equities is still on a tear and rising, though toppish.

The Equities would turn lower and yields would drop when Fed gives any hints of inflation fighting.

Goldman Sachs forecast of 85 dollar oil would maintain a bid on Crude through this summer. Monies would shift from Equities to Crude. It would be a long dreary summer for Equities long, while Hurricane would propel Crude to highs with this talk of supply constraints.

SPX 200 days moving average is now at 921, if broken, then we would see a retest to 50 days moving average.
SPX now on the verge of Bermuda Triangle, would it disappear like the Air France flight ? Spanish pilots said they say a bright candle of light near the vacinity of the site.

Would we see a Bright White candle today post NFP, and SPX disappears into the Bermuda Triangle.

See my post on 3 June, the last time we had a Bermuda Triangle phenomenon of GOLD, Gold fell 30 dollars, 990 to 960 within 12 hours.

Today we see sharp correction in GBP.

Think the Volatility is back in. Watch out.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

4 June unfinished business


USD did not carry on its rally in Asia. high was only 79.63. we would expect a wave 5 completion at Europe open. and perhaps another down move after that to complete a Right Shoulder for a more sustained rally above 80 to let say 81.

Back to 90, would take a catatrophic event.

For Equities, expect the Rally to continue and heading towards 940-950. Always watch out for market close rallies, partly due to punters taking profits, and Good Samaritan (GS) supporting the market.

Look at the Gold chart the other day, the Bermuda Triangle kept Gold in check and resulted in a 30 dollar fall.

4 June USD rebound

USD was dropping like a stone today till US market opens. Equities gapped down and USD index made an unconfirmed low on 1hr, 4hr and 8 hr charts.
Hence we would expect a rebound above 80. meanwhile Euro, GBP has topped out. seems like Gold top is at 989.59.
now it has dropped to 962. Bernanke did say he is watching commodities closely.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

3 June Gold drifting into Bermuda Triangle



the DXY neckline is about 77.50, current at 78.50.

China going to release 400 IPOs into the market. The Chinese businessman launch IPOs to grab monies not to grow business.

Tony Caldero made an interesting comments, USD and Bonds are no longer safe haven. Monies have now nowhere to run.
He sees USD/Bond bottoming as sign of Equities topping.

3 more days for Equities to make new high.

Gold is now drifting on the fringe of the Bermuda Triangle.

Bernanke has a choice today at the Testimonial to save the USD. What happens to Equities, Commodities, Treasuries and USD is on a thread of though flashing through Bernanke braincell.

Otherwise I call for 66.6 for USD Index.

2 June Euro marching on

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3X76sjV801Y&refer=worldwide

UBS asking client to sell Euro.

that means Euro got some more legs to go. A lot of banks analyst come out to say sell Euro.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

2 June the Dollar Crisis

China is warning Geithner against complacency. Last time, Wen JiaBao complained about its treasuries, Obama gave assurance and then days after Bernanke annouces the 1T debt purchase that precipated the Equity rally past 800.
Let us see if Bernanke would tit for tat announce the next 300B, he is speaking this week, on the rising Treasury yields.

As for the Dollar Crisis talk, books has even been published in 2005, 2006 on this topic. Since then Dollar slowly depreciated to 1.6000 without much fanfare. It exceeded expectation, expectation was at 1.5000. Was there a crisis ? nope, it was Goldilock. A weak dollar propelled Equities to the Nov 2007 top. It also boosted exports and overseas earnings. After the Equities Nov 2007 top, Euro continues to rally to July 2008, and then reached its bottom at Nov 2008. It consolidated for 5 months, and began its current rally at around the same time SPX was at 666.

Hence the fate of Euro is very much tied to Equities. If we say Euro would reach to 1.5000 (which is possible), then we would have Equities rallying to 1000 (which is without fundamentals). By then TNX would breach 4 and beyond. Crude would be close to 100. It has nothing to do with Demand, Inflation, Deflation, it all boils down to ample liquidity and risk taking (a.k.a. speculation).

Conspiracy has it that a Fifth Column in the government wants to reflate the next bubble, prick it early next yr, leads to another plunge, then the fate of Obama in midterm election would be sealed. The Democrats wuld blame Obama for the election failure, and hence set the stage for a White for Presidency, (Joe Biden, Hillary, Pelosi). Nonetheless. never underestimate the BEAST.

The NeoCon in Bush administration is now replaced by the MoniesBastard.

Monday, June 1, 2009

1 June Asia open up


Asia open up. HSI making new high.

Geithner tells China US wants to shrink Defitict, like he told the Congression panel that China is a currency manipulator. A lair and cheater throughout.

China has been coerced for 2 years by Hank Paulson to increase holding TBills and Equities to no good result. Let us see what China would yield this time.

Euro still below the important 1.4169, last high today was 1.4165 at about 10:40 pm ET. UK market closed today. Let see if the Frankfurters come in to buy up Euros.

Indeed Euro broke up to 1.4245 and pull back to 1.4156 so far. SPX gap up to high of 942.69. I.e. 1000 is not in view. Watch out for any MACD non confirmation.

At 11:45 am ET, queued for QQQQ at 35.60, have more faith in Tech than Financials.
Target for QQQQ is 38-38.30 see chart above, target for the Double Bottom.

Euro has a controlled drop, (meaning Whales buying the dips lower and lower), 1.4150 should be the bottom of the pullack, for target 1.4500, then 1.4800 and finally 1.5000. We may be surprised to the upside, i.e. 1.6000 coming in short time.

Wow!!!! Gold would probably be at 1250 by then.

Finally my EUROs, GBP, GOLD and SILVER is going to find a new home. Thanx Bernanke.
Think would be planning to buy a house for my retirement.

31 May Making a Bear Case



GS on ladder.



STI in bullish pennant formation.Note the exceptional volume on last Wednesday 27 May.



HSI reached new height, but the volume is not. The ealier height commanded an exception volume.

Now everywhere is bull. Roubini has now admitted recovery is inplace. Paul Krugman was faster than him. I saw some pennant formation on Equities, Stocks like GS, JPM are on a rising escalator. (literally escalator, you dun need to move your feet). However we all know that the fundamentals are not there. I asked executives of major cooperations, they told me volumes would never go back to 2007 for another 1-2 yrs. Cooperations are going to cut cost, retrench staff to achieve earnings. Consumption would never return to high time. If you know the Japan lost decade and the explanation for it: "Balance Sheet Recession" (Richard Ko of Mizuho). Cooperations are more interested to reduce debt than to achieve profits.

The current abnormally high PE ratio of SPX has no fundamentals.



200 days at 928, easily achievable. ESmini has breached 200 days, not cash. 50 days at 861.



[Chart above: SPX weekly] the unconfirmed low at 666 gave the bull the might case for rally. However the huge histogram with the lower bars give the case for a pullback.



[Chart above SPX monthly] for those who are short the market. Goods news is that the Monthly SPX has confirmed the fall to 666, and another low is in the cards, let say in 1-3 yrs time. Not before a rally. This rally may not be straight up. PERHAPS, with a unconfirmed lower low at 500++, then surge back to 1100-1200. And the final drop 1-2 yrs from now, probably towards end 2010.



[Chart above TNX monthly] This is a bold prediction. 10 Yr Treasury yields to fall back to last low, before rising to new high, a awfully new high. (we all know Inflation is coming).



[Chart above TNX daily] Now comes the 10 year yields. It has been pulling back for 2 days. possible support is the channel lower trendline. Otherwise it may pull back all the way, which has greater significance. Either the yeilds is foretelling another bout of Debt Purchase by FED, or monies fleeing Equities into Bonds.



[Chart above and below Euro] For the EURO junkies, may be it is conincidence that the Euro rise stops at 1.4169, which is the max of W5 <= W3. Monday when Asia opens, we would have the answer. If the current large degree wave is complete (possibly a larger degree wave 3). To be followed by a larger degree w4. And the final larger degree w5, we would have possible 1.4500.



This Euro topping would be a strong case for a Equities pullback. Monday Asia opening would be telling.

A lot of equities, instruments, 50 days are on the verge of cutting 200 days from below. a bullish confirmation if it happened. That includes 10 year treasury yields. However if the cross fails, then it is utmost bearish, signalling the bear market to continue for a while. (which is inline with the fundamentals).

After much thoughts as to the nature of this current rally: short squeeze, green shoots, reflation. I found the right word: "LOOTING". The bank executives, government officials are looting the American taxpayers, in return for favours, present and futures.
Would you work for 1 dollar salary like Edward Liddy of AIG ?
Geithner approved Fed NY chairman to purchase GS shares last yr in millions.

A recovering market can take its time, but a market staged by looters are in a hurry before the light comes.

When the market next plunge, it would give us a very good explanation.

Have to admit the odds are against me.