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Monday, December 28, 2009

28 December after Boxing Day

Asia is having a good rally in the morning, HSI having a rally in low volume. Most Hong Kongers have put their monies into a new home in the past months. Hong Kong tycoons have urged its fellow countrymen to put monies into properties instead of stock market. The boom times are not coming back again when moms and pops are cash-strapped and funds are afraid to push when there may not be buyers at the top.

Probably, HSI is attracting some dumb funds from China. Meanwhile Wen JiaBao has pledged to dampen the rising China property market. Prices have risen so high that it is out of reach of the ordinary citizens, having to live 2 lifes to pay the mortgage.

State own enterprises went into the property market and bought a bundle using state funds, thus transferring profits to the property developers. Then the SOE bequeathed the units to its management as entitlements.

China manufacturers went abroad and bought whole units as staff lodging instead of renting.

I have this errie feeling that the world may face a decade long dropping properties prices. Which is imaginable in a relatively land scarce Hong Kong. However it may be possible because individuals may be holding on to multiple units.

The last plunge was not enough to wipe out the property developers. The plunge was swift and short. And Banks were willing to holdout.

Think the next one would be a major geopolitical, or celestial events. The market seem to be immune to any financial shock.

Meanwhile H1N1 has spread to a lot of species other than swine or homosapiens. to dogs, turkey, birds, etc.

Quote from Dr Niman:
" Currently, many countries are experiencing a reduction in the number of H1N1 cases, which will provide an opportunity for the H274Y sub-clades to become much more dominant in the next wave. The increase in H274Y has also produced more linkage to receptor binding domain changes at position 225, including lethal combinations of H274Y with D225G. "

H274Y means Tamilflu resistance
D225G means deep lung infection => Cytokine Storm

It takes a major headline like: cluster death of tens and hundreds of infected individuals within days to jolt the world into realisation that it is a Pandemic afterall.

Tamilflu resistance is spreading, deep lung infection causing Cytokine Storm is spreading (most evident in Ukraine), next comes H5N1 and H1N1 mixing.

All is peaceful and quiet after Boxing Day.

Just to mention that my wife got 90 USD as credits on her new credit card for FREE, and we went to a nice restaurant on Xmas day. The Bank (backed by a SWF) gives out monies for FREE literally.

I have been eyeing a 42 inch LCD TV for many years, finally bought a reputable Japanese brand new 42 LCD TV for 800 USD. It has 3 HDMI inputs, slot for reading SD card. MY wife was wondering with all the plastics, glass, electronics, logistics cost, how on earth is the manufacturer making monies.

A lot of the electronics manufacturers (TV, Cameras, Laptops, handphones) ridding of inventories in Dec (possibly they produced more than then forecasted, consumer demand was weak). One reason is that they want to bring back Cash, rather than wait for profits.

The other reason is that they want to ramp up production in 2010. However if a LCD TV sells for 800 USD, who is going to buy at 1000 USD ?

LEDs are not catching up (spells trouble for Samsung, LG), when its improvement is only marginal compared to LCD, and not worth spendings thousands just to go Green. (in California, they are having a law banning plasmas, and LCDs (not sure, but something like that)).

The paradox is that Consumers are expecting lower prices, while Commodities are rising. Hence businesses are stuck in between. Is this Inflation or Deflation ? As I mentioned in my post months ago, it is both Inflation and Deflation. and let the Economists find a new theory for this. (never let Bernanke box you up in his concoction, if his QE theory works, he would not have to rig the market).

Anyway a Princeton Economics PhD still means a lot. Anyone out there got a scholarship to offer for a Princeton Economics PhD ?

Sunday, December 27, 2009

27 Dec Bizzare

Today is the 3rd day of Xmas. So far two headline grapping events has happened, both being Bizzare.

First, Susanna Maolo (a Swiss Italian, probably a Tyrolian) sprang on Pope Benedict and caused another cardninal to break his leg. This is her second attempt in 2 years, and she wore the same red shirt. Shortly after the incident, Vatican spokesman said Susanna is forgiven. Conspircacy has it that she is the Secret Daughter of the Church.

Next, the son of a top Nigerian Banker tried to detonate a bomb onboard of a Delta airline plane about to land in Dretriot. Luckily he got himself burnt. Looks like some crude homemade device.

The world is still bickering about China being the culprit for the failure at Copenhagen summit. China came out with a detailed recount of the events. Western media has it that Obama barge into the meeting China was having with Brazil and other developing nations. And Obama ordered a discussion.

Obviously, this is another ploy by White House to show the manhood of Obama.

China came out with a counter narration, saying that it was an amicable event.

Wen JiaBao would come to realisation that the world is still very much dominated by White Power (no doubt Obama is Black, he is working for white interest). And Gordon Brown has turned on China as well, by accusing China for stalling.

Soon, China would recede from active engagement with the western power. From the Olympics torch fiasco in Paris, to the now Copenhagen Summit, these are repeated acts of racism by the Western Power.

Wen JiaBao has now to reign in those people in the government who are working for western interest than national interest.

Wen JiaBao has realised that it is possible to achieve economic growth without a bubble stock market, where the only people who profits are the western funds.

Remember the province head of HeLongJiang, where a lot of coal mines are, publicly cry out if China should exchange GDP for Blood, the blood of coal miners who die in national coal mines incidents.

Indeed Hu JinTao and Wen JiaoBao is changing strategy from accelerated growth to a more balanced and environmentally friendly growth, i.e. commodities acquisition would slow, factory expansion would be cut back. Meanwhile trying to provide employment to the masses.

Nov 2010 is mid-term election. Probably Bernanke would hike only in Dec 2010. this would continue the weakenig of USD towards 68-70 (though the recent rally was quite convincing). FED providing unlimited support to FRE, FNM, the new healthcare plan would hasten the deficit, Congress raised the debt limit again. Dollar weakness is still mainstream. While Japan countered with another record deficit to fund its social programs. USD and JPY are racing to be the most debt laden currency, a.k.a. the least worthy currency.

Euro, GBP, Gold, Crude should begin the next leg up. With AUD reaching par with USD, another headline grapping event. (like GBP breaching 2.0 with USD).

Bernanke take is that the unemployment would not allow Inflation to take hold. Yes 10 percent of the population cannot chase prices, but the other 90% need to feed, to travel, to keep an household. Higher crude, higher gasoline, higher heating oil, higher airline tariff (guess what, most airlines are hedged for lower oil price while crude is rising).

Now 10 year yields is on the verge of breaking to the upside.

FOMC and Bernanke would be sidelined in 2010, when events get out of control. Rising inflation holds back consumption, Businesses fighting rising raw material prices while customers recede. 2010 would see Businesses going into unemployment literally (when more and more declare bankfrupt or beg for TARP).

Thanx to Blankfein and high frequency trading firms, they would try to sustain Equities, the result of which is not known. Guess what, now the rumours mills has it that Blankfein would take Goldman Sachs private (in order to take profit on the 200 dollars share price).

One would not declare the Healthcare bill as breakthrough, US has the most complex and expensive healthcare system, while its infant mortality rate is among the highest compared to Europe, and even Singapore (with the lowest infant mortality rate). Most countries healthcare system provides comprehensive healthcare to all, while in US only 84% of the population is covered. The healthcare bill is not doing much to cut cost without the public option. Businesses would be saddled with additional healthcare cost.

Obama would move to his next target, the Afghanistan war and Israel/Paliestine topic. One should watch "Lions for Lambs" starring Robert Redford, Tom Cruise and Maryl Streep. The Lambs sitting in the offices would be pushing out the Lions onto the battlefield with new strategy. To achieve the first success in a short time of 9 months for Obama, the military has to put up more soldiers for sacrifice (bait). (while more and more young Americans volunteer for military service to forgive their student loan amidst dwindling employment)

Next come the 2009 year end deadline for Iran to comply. Would Obama make the gamble, instigate a war to raise his popularity. I am sure he is pondering this as I am doing now.

All is well, thanx to the capable Ralph and bungling Timmy. All is not well because it all seems so well. It is Bizzare indeed.



now things are getting weird, with Wormholes in Norway, Thailand, China and pyramid in bright daylight over Moscow.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

24 Dec Healthcare bill passed


I do not like Obama but I applaud the Healthcare Bill. as it prohibits insurance companies from denying insurance to those with pre-existing conditions. Make employers cover insurance for all workers.

On the other hand, it means less profit for insurance companies while they get more customers. For sure the Federal Debt is increased significantly.

Congress raises US government debt limit to sustain for 2 more months. Treasury issues more bonds, Fed buys those bonds through proxies. Fed prints more monies.

Meanwhile SPX now at 1125.

Next year the risk trades would likely return, and some impatients hedge funds are positioning before the year ends.

Last year the Xmas rally comes after Xmas, this year by rule of Alternation, it comes before Xmas, would it sustain through Xmas into 31 Dec 2009 ?

Nonetheless SPX 1150 is the next target, questions is how it is going to get there.

Gold trying to make a comeback, held 1074, now at 1100. If it is successful, 1320 is the target, (the original target by the way). If Gold clears 1130 and then 1175, the uptrend is intact. That also means SPX may be in range ot 1150-1170. USDJPY likely to retest 85.

Obama returning to Hawaii for Xmas, somewhere warm.

Meanwhile WHO announced that swine flu may have peaked.
am thinking it has peaked 2nd wave, the disastrous 3rd wave is coming, when the flu is returning as Tamiflu resistant and with a 225 mutation, meaning more disastrous. Perhaps in some countries we have the combination of H1N1 and H5N1, fatal variant spreads like fire.

HK market has been faltering for the past week, perching on 21000. Let see if the new SPX high can induce some buying when HK market reopens next Monday.
Otherwise the worse scenario is DJIA, HK and other markets are waiting for SPX to finish its act.

23 Dec Cheating Galore / Is this it ?

In Asia, investment houses dumping shares, debts, derivatives into self-invented ETF and reselling to public, when selling shares see no willing buyers. HK developers sell one condo unit at 57 million USD to grab headline and then quietly sell other units at subpar price to same buyer (stolen funds from China). Housing agent playing tricks on unknowing buyers, creating buyer panic when telling buyers prospective buy has been bought, hence need to pay premium for next unit. Rag and bone man stuffing wet pamphlets inside paper boards and sell for higher price. Cheating galore, thanx to Ben Bernanke and Obama.

Meanwhile, is that all SPX 1221 ?

Monday, December 21, 2009

21 Dec Snow, dollar falling like snow flakes.


Price for US/Israeli Overt Air Strike against Iran (Rule 1.8 Applies) at intrade.com


US/Israel airstrike over Iran. Expiring Dec 31 2009 contract.

Snow covered Europe. People not able to get back home on time for Christmas. Not much to do at home.

Nobody is expecting much in the markets. Like this is the moment of perfect silence.

Instead of leaping up, GOLD plunged by almost 130 dollars.

another bout of USD weakness with a Equities Xmas rally into January. DXY should hit back to 71-72. Then start the multimonth long USD rally with a big correction in Equities.

Should be quite a good Xmas present for DXY to go from 77.65 to 71. A bonus of sort.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

GOLD

here is a bearish article on GOLD, after it hits 1100 and bounced off.

http://www.thestreet.com/storycomments/10649092/1/gold-etf-charts-an-updated-view.html

Friday, December 18, 2009

18 Dec Hopenhagen -> hoping for the wrong thing

The Taiwanese had a survey to select the most popular Chinese Character for this year. The consenus of the majority is the word "HOPE".

Copenhagen is now called Hopenhagen. If the world manage to clinch the Climate deal, then we would call it Hopenhagen for perpetuity.

One obvious beneficiary of such Climate deals are the Carbon trading exchange (co-owned by Goldman Sachs), the Green Technology companies, Boon Pickens with his Wind-Farm, and the Governments with their Green Tax.

Heard on BBC that nations would levy tax on imports, based on their carbon limits. Example an IPOD would cost more.

So far most businesses are clearing stocks end of year, with massive discounts on existing inventories.

Implications is that we would move into a higher tax environoment in coming months and years.

As well as inflations on staples food and necessaries. Due to climate change, droughts, floods, staples food are harder to come by. Developing countries like Indonesia, Thailand, with their crops supplies would grow in prominance.

The goldilock business environment from 2005 to 2007 would not come by. Instead businesses are continuing to cutdown workforce. With a lot of backoffice operations going to India, Philippine, Mexico and China. US businesses would continue to downsize when earnings pursuit seems to be the only goal of the CEOs. That means fewer and fewer people are willing to spend.

Natural resources coompanies would slow down if not cease to increase capacity. that would drive prices higher. Natural resources companies would face burden of Green Tax and hence have to mitigate with higher prices to consumers.

The next ten years would be payback time for homosapiens.

As months agoo, I have prediced that the next wave of crisis would be among Sovereign Funds. The next wave to come would be Capital Control. Nations would erect controls to prevent those speculative or investment funds from fleeing, along with more Sovereign Funds to fail.

Imagine Blankfein, Diamond running to Timmy for help when their monies get trapped in some foreign government bank vault.

China has given the warning that they do not have that much more USD to spend on Treasuries, as their holding of USD is diminishing due to the reduction of Trade Defiticits. To sustain all the spendings of the Congress and the war in Afghanistan, Bernanke has to overwork the printers on Christmas day.

(by then paper notes would be just paper).

The day the FED is audited for real, the FED would cease to exist.

Without the FED, would you honour my 100 dollar bill ?

It is all about HOPE, no more trust.

This is the long term scenario, short term I am looking for a Christmas Rally to complete SPX 1121. Last year Christmas rally happens after Xmas into 1st week of 2009, then hero Jerome from SOCGEN threw in 50 billion to short DAX Futures.

Now the market is on a tightrope.

Based on alternations, the XMas rally would happen about next week, driving Euro, SPX, Crude, Commodities higher. Some would make new high.

A lot of seismics activity around, we just had the most grandeur undersea volcanic eruption and the Philippine volcan Mayon impending eruption.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

12 Dec FOMC next week

FOMC wold decide what would happen to Euro, Gold and stocks.
Either Euro retake 1.5100 towards 1.5500, Gold to 1200 then 1300,
and Stocks break 1121 once and for all towards 1150.

Meanwhile Paul Krugman wrote an article sort of asking for another 2T of asset purchases by the FED.

Picked up a lot of chatter on UFOs. including the one Moscow claimed as failed missle test over Norway.
http://thealienproject.blogspot.com/

Thursday, December 10, 2009

10 Dec AVP Alien versus Predator H1N1 vs H5N1 => H1N5 (I named it !!!!)

Tomorrow is my kid birthday. Happy Birthday !!!!

http://www.dowell-netherlands.com/2009/12/h5n1-h1n1-cluster-in-dien-bien-vietnam.html

There are now occurrances of H1N1 and H5N1 mixing. We should expect to have more occurrances surfacing in Egypt and South China.

Now Tamiflu resistant strain and H255G (one that cause Cytokine Storm) is fast spreading. While the public is little aware.

The 3rd wave is rising (as in Elliot Wave), the most destructive. So far most nations are happy distributing Vaccines as their response to the pandemic.

Most scientist is expecting this pandemic to be mild as the mortality rate is only 0.048%. As usual, the opposite happens.

When the fast spreading H1N1 merge with the lethal H5N1, we would have H1N5. You touch, you die. Remember, I named it here.

The sad thing is that the Vaccine may cause long term effects, it degenerate the recipient's neurological system in old age.

Meanwhile, the stock market is happy settling down. No panic. Even when Dubai, Greece are facing sovereign risks.

Suddenly it has gone quiet with Iran and Israel, a deafening silence.

Gold is dropping, always presenting itself as a Xmas gift.

As long as Bernanke is there, there is always a reason for GOLD to exisit as the beacon of truth. It is like the Fellowship of the Ring, and Bernie is the evil Sauron. With Bernie confirmation for a 2nd term, GOLD Bull market wuld last for another 4 years. Hence 2010 is the year when the Inflation horseman rises, with the peak in 2012, when the world is caught up in a flame of hyperinflation.

In 2007 and early 2008, the world was expecting Stagflation, which never came. Instead a close call to Depression.

In late 2009, the world is expecting slow growth in US, normal growth in other countries, especially faster growth in China, Asia.
Which would not come, and either we have another trip to Depression, or a High inflation slow growth (Stagflation).
2010 to 2012 would be known as the years of Great Inflation vs Great Depression.

Crude has been staying subdued even in a very bullish Stockpile (lower than expected inventory) report on Wednesday. It is like a crouching tiger waiting for the time to pounce.

Now the world economist has reached a consensus that Asia would have robust growth next year. Insiders have resumed buying after selling most of the time.

For China 4th quarter to 1st quarter next year is a pullback period, when production volume decreases. The China stock market would likely peak out below 3500 (for SHCOMP) and await further signals next year. Chinese New Year is on 14 Feb 2010.

What I know is that some US companies are now cutting back budget for next year.

SPX would stage another rally after this down leg into 1080, and perhaps attempt 1121 (50% retracement) in a thin Christmas market. If it breaks, it would attract a lot of buying and relieve those Hedge Funds who have problem selling in thin markets.

the higher it goes, the more severe would be the subsequent drop. As a Bear, you just wish for a mighty P2.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

8 Dec China and Gold frenzy

The China government finished some working meeting and set objectives for next year. Essentially, it would be stimulating internal consumption. I.e. a stronger Yuan and a population with more monies to consume.
Though it may be holding back on loose credit, less speculative monies.

As Chinese New Year is on 14 Feb 2010. we should expect Gold jewellery buying to pick on in Dec and January.

Would not be surprised if some government agencies come along and talk about Gold buying. Shanghai has a Gold future exchange. Dubai selling Gold, while China picking up. 1226 is hardly a top. It is a matter how long they want to hold Gold down, and some smart Alec comes along and mop up.

Long time ago, the World doubt if Chinese farmers can afford a Television. They saved up an entire year and bought a TV. No matter how high GOLD rises, it is always a treasure, and more and more farmers would be buying, though not as many ounce as before. There is an insatiable demand out there.

Monday, December 7, 2009

7 Dec Asia open weak

So far HSI dropped, Asia generally weak, though not depressing. Meanwhile EURO holding below 1.4900, looking weak.
It is now early morning Europe. Let us see what the Brits and French decide to do.
The better Employment Figures have given the carry traders a scare. Probably a lot of weak longs taken out.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

5 Dec Gold SPX

now SPX has reached 1119 and faced lots of selling, 1121 is the 50% retracement. It is facing higher high and lower low. Hence the Real Bulls and Bears have come out into the market.

Even the China market is showing zig-zag patterns daily. SO far the China market has not exceeded the high of SHCOMP at 3500 back in July. The gyrations since then has probably sucked in enthusiastics monies from the massess. Essentially the China government is not happy about Morgan Stanley, Citibank, BoA-Meryll Lynch making monies from derivatives contracts with China state owned companies. Any attempt for these firms to fleece the China people is frowned upon. Upside is limited.

Bulls believe the improving Data would improve further.
Bear believe the Rally is overdone.

I am in the Bear Camp. Data has softened for ISM, etc. And the employment data is getting stranger. The major employment comes in Healthcare and Education.

Next week, the Bulls would make the Final push towards 1121.

When Geithner was interviewed by CNBC on Thursday. He said that the stock market recovery is good, "but do not overdo it". And he repeated refuse to comment on the valuation of the stock market. And now he is at loggerheads with Lord Blankfein over Bonus payment. Some PR gimmicks ? Good guy, bad guy ?

Would Lord Blankfein, Diamond, and friends decide to unseat the Democrats in the coming midterm. Conventional wisdoms say not. What if Atlas rugged ?

In next week Hopenhagen Climate meeting, there would be major pledges to cut emissions. Meaning Government would have to divest their stimulus monies into retrofitting their economies and industries. Perhaps to accept a lower GDP growth. And the world economies cannot afford to grow as fast to pollute as fast. While Green technologies is still developing.

Gold pull back almost 78 dollars from 1226.30 to 1148.22 in 2 days. This is a sign of topping but not the top. Having coonsolidated for so many months from March 2008 to June 2009, a span of 15 months, a rally of 5 months seem short.

Would Gold do a leap of 180 dollars in 5 days ?

From the low of 682, 2x = 1384, a 100% gain, not so ambitious compared to some Equities with 400%, 500% gain.

Supply and demand is not the factor, look at Crude with a glut of supply it still holds 75 well. In fact Crude is consolidating for 110, if not 200 when military conflicts break out. Think Abu Dhabi, Saudi may want to replenish their coffers after the Dubai debacle.

In 2010, we would see Israel bombing Iran, while Iran goes into the last stage of weaponisizing its plutonium. Natanyahu would be making secret visits around the region to seek air rights, etc.

Troops surge in Afghanistan to 100,000 for US is probably a mask for ground action in Iran. Oppositions to Ahmadinejadd has grown and probably Ahmadinejadd should be planning refuge now, otherwise face the same fate as Saddam. Imagine Admadinejadd extradited to Israel to face a Jewish court.

World is reporting a subside of H1N1 infections. Wave 2 has peaked. And next we have Wave 3, the spread of Tamilfu resistant and lung infection mutated H1N1. OR worse we may have a combination of H5N1 and H1N1. The rise would be seen in Jan-Feb.

If you know what is coming, there got to be a big welcome party right ? and we have not seen it yet.

There has to be a defining moment to mar the end of P2 and the turn into P3. So far we have not seen it.

We have another 13 trading days towards Christmas Eve. 31 December is full moon.
Did Charles Nenner got it right ? It is going to be a Christmas unlike others.

Obama getting his Peace Prize on 10 December, while enroute to Hopenhagen.

Monday, November 30, 2009

31 Nov Dubai, Asia banks and Bernanke

BoA published a research paper with breakdowns of creditors of Dubai World, counting among them of course, Citibank, and also Asian banks, e.g. HSBC in China Tianjin branch, Singapore DBS, OCBC, UOB, and StandardChartered, of course (who has a large shareholder, the Singapore SWF Tamesek).

Anectodal sources that companies engaged in infrastructure, buildings, utilities projects in Dubai has faced late payment from their Dubai customers. Cashflow problems is evident in Dubai companies. Also lots of expatriates left Dubai, leaving their apartments empty, car left at airport, credit card bills unpaid.

The whole Dubai banking and credit business is full of venom. Dubai would draw funds much needed elsewhere, and allow the venom to spread

Suspect that the SWF would move in to support the Asia markets. Giving wary moms and pops a chance to cash out. (as once a trading guru said, God is merciful, it always gives you a second chance). Sometimes you do find some ordinary investors trading on gut feels make more monies than the sophiscated traders.

Bernanke would be facing his nemisis on 3 Dec (Thursday), with questions on BoA Kent Lewis raised once more. Obama may as well let go a controversial Fed Chairman than to have Bernanke as his burden for mid-term election. In fact sacrificing Bernanke can garner some votes and cheers from the public tired of these Bankers bonus spree.

Now, would Bernanke leaves in calm or he leaves a wreck ?

Sunday, November 29, 2009

29 Nov Asia Monday

am expected a up day for Asia, and subsequently US Monday. incase some of you bears get so carried away with the Dubai thing.
(it falls into a pattern, up Monday, distribution for the whole of Tuesday to Friday).

Pimpco El Elrian and Templeton Mark Mobius are calling for correction, though.

Things are really bad in Dubai, however liquidity is in abundance. Abu Dhabi has all the monies from its Oil trade. However, this also means the next shoe to fall would be these other Sovereign Wealth Fund (Abu Dhabi, Norwegian pension, Temasek, etc). The market is the most efficient Deleveraging instrument.

Further out, Equities would tumble and monies flow into Crude and Commodities. Dec, Jan and Feb would be the month of Commodities, with Crude reaching into 110. These would be an oil shock that last the world through 2010.

Not to mention Alien versus Predator, the almagamation of H1N1 and H5N1, coming to a theatre near you.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

29 November H1N1 mutation and Vacinne

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11270905/WHO_Mis.html

H1N1 has mutated, it took WHO 1 week late to report when Dr Nyman has the happening forecasted. Now WHO has also confirmed that the vaccine does not work on the mutated H1N1 (D225G). And WHO claim that it is insignificant and not worthy of reporting.

That is what happened when a politician from HK is elected to lead the WHO. WHO needs real scientist with a moral conscience.

Essentially we can write off the current vaccine. New ones need to be discovered urgently to fight the D225G.

Meanwhile Bernanke issued a article in Washington Post retaliating against those waging the "Audit the FED" bill.

My forecast, Equities would tumble and monies flow into Crude, Commodities for the last hooray. Euro to push upward. Yen to breach 80.

28 November Dubai and the world at large

Into the 2007 boom years, the world was building like mad, e.g. the palm-tree resort Nakheel, World tallest building in Dubai, and a lot of other countries are building massive resorts, e.g. in Las Vegas, Singapore (Sentosa Cove). The units on these massive resorts were sold to the rich on leverage, at ridiculous prices.

Now we see consumers, buyers of those prime properties walking away, not honouring their debt to the developers. Next, the developers would have to contemplate walking away from their Banks.

Again, it is Deja Vu again, when the next down move gets kicked off with the Banks. However this is not the achilles ankle of the current Bear Market Rally.

There are other concerns: H1N1 merging with H5N1 to lead to a worldwide slowdown of air traffic. H1N1 is now confirmed to mutate. Combination with H5N1 (possibly starting in China/Hong Kong, would lead to the next crest in the pandemic).

Also with the world climate talks now making progress, nations would be curbing their industrial productions and petrol consumptions.

All these factors would contribute to a sluggish economy, if not a contracting one. Hence the market has the choice of rapidly reflecting the new realities or slowly meander downwards while catching new bulls and bears alike.

Currently, we are seeing the unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade, with Yen at decades low around 85.

Next we would see the unwinding of the USD Carry Trade.

Bernanke nomination hearing is coming next month, and the FED Jobs Summit and NFP due next Friday. December is going to be a decisive month.

How the indices would close on Monday, would matter if we see a spinning top/southern star on a monthly chart.

Also after Thanxgiving, the bill relating to Audit the FED would be up for vote. Time to find out what skeletons Bernanke and Alan has kept in the closets. One most concern is that American Gold has been swapped out to other institutions. I.e. American Gold is gone.

Bernie has now to buy back the GOLD from open market. Leading to a crisis of sort at the FED.

That explains why other than India, Sri Lanka, the US is buying Gold as well.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

26 Nov interim top





interim top for Euro at 1.5145. profit taking on thanxgiving day.
1.5500 to be next.
According to the rising channel in Euro, it should goto 1.5200, support at 1.4800 around the 50 days moving average. To be conservative, buy on dips.
Otherwise upward trendline support at 1.4600.

Gold has not completed its bull trend, more to come. Top at 1195, gap at 1154. A 40 dollar correction would be good.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

24 Nov Sheila Bair

market made a down swoop while Sheila Bair spoke. GDP 3rd Qtr came in at 2.8 vs original 3.5.

Sheila Bair said 4thQtr traditional weak for Banks, expect some deterioration. However she would not read too much into 4th Qtr results.

Nonetheless Gold still has another leg up. another buying opportunity, same goes for SPX.

Would update here when the right buying moment comes. If SPX breaks 1090, more weakenes into 1080.

24 Nov the World in a hurry

yap, everything is in a hurry towards year end.

H1N1 mutations start appearing in clusters, it would soon be apparent to the world that next yr would be the year of mutated H1N1 and the grand finale of H5N1+H1N1.

Meanwhile LHC have success and ramping up for the collisions of 2 opposing beams.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

21 Nov Audit the FED / H1N1 / LHC

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/panel-votes-to-audit-feds-balance-sheet-2009-11-19

Finally the greatest PONZI scheme in human history would be revealed to the world. Probably Timmy and Benny fleeing the country soon. Their puffy backside is definitely delicious.

WHO finally releases the H1N1 sequence of the dead victims in Ukraine. Mutation has happened. Though it does not seem like a pervasive spread of the new mutant. More like spontaneous change.

The new mutant causes Cykotine storm, destroying the lungs completely.

Soon the mutants would take root and start spreading.

Trying to get a hand on the Large Hadron Collider start date.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26439957/ns/technology_and_science-science/

finally found it, the LHC has been turned on Wednesday, 18 Nov 2009.and the beam would be sped up and then make opposite beams crash for the BIG BANG. Awaiting the BIG BANG date.

now watching the movie "The Polar Storm".

Sunday, November 15, 2009

15 Nov Alien vs Predator

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/13/AR2009111302213.html

read it yourself, when the pig meets the bird.

15 Nov APEC vs US vs China Flashforwad

US and China has a spat APEC. A statement on flexible currency agreed at the meetings of Finance ministers is dropped from the final communique. As China and US could not agree on the final wordings.

There are four groups of countries there: US, China, the Asean countries and the resources rich country: Russia, Brazil and Australia.

Russia, Brazil and Australia has seen their currencies rallying due to inflow of hot monies. People buying more Aussie to enjoy the capital and interest rate. (Brazil has to impose capital gain tax).

Asean countries fighting with exports, when their currencies rally and making their exports more expensive compared to US and China.

Asean countries (with Singapore in lead) would like to see a more expensive Yuan, hence towing US along in its call for more flexible (more expensive) Yuan.

Would the emerging economies, Aseans countries get what they want ? a more expensive Yuan ?
If China refuses to budge, the only way for a more expensive Yuan would be a more expensive USD.
As the media has been hyping the link of Equities to a dropping USD.
We may have a drop in Equities while USD rallies, and a weaker Asean currencies when monies take profit and flees the Asean countries.

The intent has been clear, though not mentioned in the communique.

Obama would be in China in next 2 days, he promised he would bring up the Currency issue to please his constituents. Would China be mad ? and dump treasuries ?

Deep undercurrents, Equities is especially vulnerable. Would be see a sharp turnaround for USD, or is the the turning point for USD ?

Marc Faber this week mentioned buying Asian currencies, e.g. SGD. I sat up and started to think.

Would a rising USD trigger the next Asia Financial Crisis ? Elliot alternate theory. The crisis would not repeat in the same style the same place. Instead of a same US Banking crisis, the crisis would be in another place.

Asia is especially vulnerable now, when most countries have borrowed to fund its current fiscal stimulus. Would China be dragged into this crisis, when it was untouched in the last financial crisis in 1997.

Market works in mysterious ways. The APEC host has been working very hard to get everyone to agree to promise to extend the stimulus plan, hoping that confidence would lead to growth. Perhaps someone believes he can change the future single handedly. However when ordinary folks are led to believe and when disppointed, they would be angry. Unless you have the power of Nostradamus, one should not overpromise its people.

Have you seen the future ?

Saturday, November 14, 2009

14 Nov Friday 13th pass and gone

nothing happened, another up day.
WHO still holding back the Sequence at Ukraine.
SPX rally from support.
Surveyed most blogs, Daneric, Michael Vadon, Calfutia, all expecting the 4th of 5th up has been done, now in the midst of a 5th of 5th upto 1111-1120.

From current level 1095, another 15 to 20 points "guaranteed",
if 1120 broken, we may have a run into 1200.

Though the drop of USD has slowed, it is still dropping nonetheless.

Gold seems as sure to break recent high at 1123 on its confirmed march into 1300. Now in newspaper, 1300 is like the surest bet in the market.

Sellers are few, buyers are few but steadiliy streaminng in, due to late funds buying before yr end.

USD latest low at 74.77. Bernanke is now sponsoring the next Carry Trade, like what the Japanese did in the past years.

Friday, November 13, 2009

13 Nov TGIF13

Gary Locker, US Commerce Secretary being interviewed by a Bloomberg anayst who wears her bra outside on live TV.
Gary says all this trade spats part of international trade. I.e. all these trade spats are small portion of the overall trade.
This should help the USD.

Would we see a mini-crash today ? Like a 5-6% drop on SPX ??

Meanwhile, Gold spot reached low of 1101. Today would be about the battle of 1100. It should intensify over Eurpoe open, sucking mom and pop buying in Asia hours.

2012 is now in a theatre nearby you.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

12 Nov APEC




SPX at a critical juncture.The Trinity Cross, which is in the vacinity of 1103, though I personally prefer 1111.









Target of breakout at 1123 reached. Retest of neckline at 1108 and goes higher ?




APEC become a big propanganda machine, trying to psycho the world to believe World Trade would save the world,

on 5 mins chart 1123 seems like the top meanwhile.
DXY seems like near a bottom.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

8 Nov 2012

yes, 2012 would day view in US on 13 Nov. a Friday (a Friday 13 thingy). and I wish SPX at 1111 on 11-13-09.
11-11-09 is a holiday, unfortunately.

This would send a signal so strong that it reverberates the globe for the next few year.

http://www.whowillsurvive2012.com/

7 Nov Obama Healthcare

Kudos to Obama for having clinched the House Healthcare vote. The next job would be for the House and Senate to reconcile their plans for a final plan.

It is humane plan. It allows those with pre-existing condition to get insured. and those with pre-existing condition would not get exhorbitant rates.

However it is going to be burden on business to provide healthcare for every workers. and insurance has more restrictions, though they get millions more new customers.

Would see SPX trying to inch higher into 1090, not surprising to see 1100. However probably everyone is expecting the same. We may get a surprise.

Meanwhile the media has not caught on the Ukraine mutation, giving sufficient time for the smart monies to prepare.

When every stakeholder is ready, WHO would announce mutations. Effectively rendering the current stockpile of vaccines useless.

However some dismiss this as fear mongery, some claim it is Pneumonic Plague in Ukraine (Black Death) and not H1N1.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

6 Nov India, Ukraine. Bilderberg plan.

Dalai Lama is visiting the Border of China and India, which used to be the place of war. AND India bought a massive 200t of Gold from IMF.
Coincidence ?

Fort Hood incident reveal US is slowly cracking. The shift of power is accelerating. Think Obama would scale down US involvement in Afghanistan.

UAE is now developing nuclear reactors. Soon, it would be Saudi's turn, and we have a Nuclear middle-east in no time.

Ukraine has confirmed mutation though WHO is not admitting.The samples were taken by WHO to UK for sampling.

The deputy health minister of Ukraine announced that there is a new strain: an European strain.

WHO is accused of withholding the sequence of the strain sent for testing in UK.

Ukraine has 93 or more fatality in a week. Half a million new cases in 6 days.
Now it is 135 fatalities as of 7 Nov. (amazing)


Soon Ukraine nationals would be fleeing its borders into Polan, Russia and rest of Europe.

Bulgaria is coming up next. The immortal prince Dracula would be hunting for those corpse with blood filled lungs.




Another point of view by ex-Finland Health minister.

1976 vaccination led to long term problems, like brain tumor, etc.

Mention of Kissinger proposal at Bilderberg meeting at Hellas to eliminate earth population by 2/3.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

31 Oct Ukraine outbreak

H1N1 has mutated into a fatal strain.

the current market drop started around Galleon case, when the Galleon fund sold its holdings, effectively being the first Fund to take profit and spoil the game. Probably everybody was gaming for 1200.

current reading, most blogs said oversold, expecting a rebound. Traders on national TV said range trading between 1020 and 1090 for coming week.

And then we have the Cheerleader FOMC on Wednesday. Would Bernanke announce another bout of purchase ?

I keep picking up commentaries of October crash. Another short squeeze coming ?

Firstly somebody trying to setup a short squeeze. However may get itself burned, bços larger events, like the H1N1 is not helping.

However a continous drop would also be a surprise, as everybody has been so optimistics, and Geithner says another crisis is not likely.

My preferred scenario is for Equity drop, Crude, Gold to rally. The Friday India petroleum plant fire does help in reducing stockpile.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

20 Oct Crude

Crude cup and handle target 115 and 120, the world would once again have an Oil Shock, when CFTC, FED seems to be helpless against this. and USD dives to sub 70.
we are seeing Crude breaks out after 4 months of consolidation.

Euro probably powering towards 1.55-1.6000, it would be interesting to watch SPX, if it goes to 1300.

Hence the question is: Would Crude stop at 85 and Gold stop at 1084 ? while SPX tops out as well ?

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Iwo Jima: Wait till the beach is full

The Japanese commander defending Iwo Jima against the US forces landing, waited till the beach was full of US soldiers, then ordered the firing.

Yes, wait till all the bulls are on the beach.

Daneric is bearish, the top has reached for him.

For me the top is yet to come. Watch crude, if crude does not turn back at 78, it has big implication. Basically Bernanke has lost control. The game has turned on him.
Expect more jawboning from Bernanke next week when he speaks.

if Crude breaks 78, then 85 and then 100, despite the abundance of supplies, or tanker storage out there. GOLD may just break its limit at 1070, 1085, and shoot for 1120, 1300. Euro shoot for 1.6000, while DXY heads for 73, then 70.

As for Equities, highly uncertain.

Let us see how Bernanke panic. Now, who would bailout the FED ? FDIC ?

Friday, October 16, 2009

16 Oct This is it.




it is near. the answer to the top would seem like so obvious.

personally, I hope Gold spot would reach new hight at 1084. However dun put all the bets on it, as 1070 may just be the interim top.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

14 Oct Gold top at 1070 / California Earthquake

after reaching 1070 Gold retreated, Euro from 1.4920, Crude from 75.

would this signal the top of SPX, future hit 1083 though.

Equities retreat while still in midst of Earnings. JP Morgan earnings blew off.

Courtesy of http://www.quakecentralforecasting.com/lowellsblog.html

Events of M>=6 in the State tend to concentrate in the Spring and Fall months. Of the 224 earthquakes recorded over the past 200 years in California of M>=6 46 have occurred in April or May and 49 in October and November. The most active periods are from April 8 through May 2 and from October 15 through October 29. During the Spring period 25 such earthquakes occurred in these 23 days and in the Fall period 17 such earthquakes occurred in this 14 day period. Statistically, 42 of the 224 earthquakes have occurred in this 37 day frame, 25% of the total. On average 10% of the earthquakes should have occurred in this period so the overall rate is approximately 2.5 times the average for the coming two weeks. The Fall period included events such as the Imperial Valley event of 10-15-1979 (M 7.0); Loma Prieta 10-18-1989 (M 7.3) and So. California on 10-16-1999 (M 7.4). Readers may discern a pattern here. Every ten years with years ending in the digit 9 for the past four decades in mid-October a major earthquake has hit the California area. Given that there has been an increase in seismicity throughout the region and that the distance relations with recent strong and great global earthquakes suggest some triggering in the region and the long period of quiet for the area, residents of California may find this a good time to prepare for a strong earthquake.

If a California Big Earthquake does happen, then GOLD would probably wrestle itself away from the Equities and propel itself into 1100 in short time.

Therefore thus saith the LORD, Behold, I will bring evil upon them, which they shall not be able to escape; and though they shall cry unto me, I will not hearken unto them. Ezekiel 11:11

Sunday, October 11, 2009

11 Oct my birthday Flash Forward

My birthday falls on 16 Oct. Wedding anniversary on 15 Oct.
Back in 2007, on my Birthday, I told my Chinese colleagues, that something bad is going to happen to the market. Did not realise later that the top of the Shanghai market was then on 16 Oct.

Think the SPX would quiety market the top.
Today I went through the charts and realise why the push up has been incessant. The Final Destination is revealed.

I would show on this site once the target is reached.

There is a lag between the Equities Cycle and the Commodities Cycle. Gold, Crude would top out sometime in Feb/March.

After the Nobel Peace Prize selection committee credibility is decimated, Obama goes ahead and allow Gays to be upfront on their orientation in the armed forces. Hence possibly encouraging a congregation of gays in the service.

Wow !!! look at the work of the AntiChrist, amazing.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

10 Oct Inflation or Hyperinflation

Interestingly, after Glenn Stevens raised Aussie rate, the market suddenly come to the knowledge that Inflation is back.

hence it becomes clear, the story.
Deflation -> Inflation, high inflation -> deflation and depression.

This story would play out over the course of 15 years with oscillation in between.

Went to the bank, bank tellers were saying people were buying stocks, Citibank, and folks were profit taking on 1000 dollar Gold in past week.

FED stance has not changed any bit since Bernanke talk, but some seem to seize on his dovish comment on taking action when recovery comes.

Hence the market ticker guy has revealed FED secretly monetizing its debt, while the Treasury going on TV denying any monetization and re-asserting the STRONG DOLLAR stance.

Asian Central Banks were forced to cap their currencies rises this week, by buying Dollars, selling domestic currency. Essentially the Asia Central Banks are exchanging their own jewels for junks.

While China Yuan is pegged to USD fall. Trade friction intensifies between China and US, and these takes a while to play out.

Trades associations have been pressing Obama to declare China as a Currency Manipulator. It is not clear if Obama has decided to meet Dalai Lama.

Meanwhile, some commentators are expecting a top in GOLD at 1050 to 1070.

More soldiers would be sent to Afganistan at the order of the "Man of Peace". In fact a doubling of soldiers not seen during the Vietnam or Iraq war. There would be more and more Drone Attacks on civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan. AND he destroys as the "Man of Peace".

Update 11:40 am ET------------------
if Euro breaks out from 1.4864, or sustain above 1.4900, then the eventual target is 1.7400, almost ridiculous, but real.
18% gain from here. similarly for Gold to 1300.
Crude to likely break into 90 to 100.

Dun know how would world economy reacts to a 100 dollar oil once more.

Friday, October 9, 2009

9 Oct Man of Peace, the AntiChrist

He will ascend to power on a platform of peace. By peace, he will destroy many - Daniel 8:25

and now Obama has gotten the Nobel Peace Prize.

The trade war between China and US intensifies. It is left out from much of the Bloomberg or CNBC. The new product of concern is steel pipes.

Dollar is hopeless, should continue down after this seemingly consolidation. Euro should head towards 1.5000. GBP towards 1.8000. USDJPY should break the floor at 87.

Crude would rise quickly towards 85 and 90. (almost forgot, I still got some USO, UNG to sell).

Gold of course towards the long awaited target.

Bernanke is now getting cold feet.
Equities would continue its slow climb. Still waiting to sell my ETF and Shanghai H shares.

Meanwhile, NASA plunged a space craft onto moon surface to probe water. Ominous.

Am checking when the Large Hydron Collider is starting.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

6 October State of the Market

the forex and equities market is at critical juncture, however there are not any important events to sway it either way.
hence the market markets swing it either way to throw off the Bull and Bear. most notable would be the Forex with it sharp swings either way.

Hence: scalp if not stay out of the market.

Sunday, September 27, 2009

27 Sept TALF



Would this spur markets ? let watch Asia Monday.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

26 September Bull Trap or Bear Trap

I am tempted to go long GS at 180 on Friday late hours. however due to my fumbling, I did not.

SPX holds above 1039, the trendline support, and the target of the Double Top of SPY. Good place to take profit for shorts, for long, not so sure.

If Asia we see a weak closing on Monday (or a drop of 3-5% on Asia equities), then the break of 1039 is nailed. Otherwise, 1041 would be the bottom of the current fall and a Gap up for another leg up towards 1080-1110.

I tend to believe the support in GOLD at 970. Would RIMM be a good play up ?

GS was leading the drop on Friday, before the Indices reacted.

Yamamda has spoken on Bloomberg Radio again, good to hear her, for long term view.

IF DXY is not able to break up from current level, then we have another leg down into 74 then 70. As the safe haven currency is now JPY.

Mizuho and Japanese banks now selling Equities to raise Yen, think the new Japan government would not be so generous with financial prop.

One thing is for sure, there would be flood of SHARES in the market, while CASH is hard sought after, and CASH to buy GOLD.

Bernanke can bluff some people some of the time, but not all people all the time.

Think people would be rushing for the exits or choose to wait for a good exit until they found none.

Friday, September 25, 2009

25 September Pay the piper


As the chairman of the Tiger Fund, the wise old man Julian say yesterday, the Piper has to be paid somehow.
It is a matter of conscience if Bernanke wants to pump it so high that it would hurt the unknowing ordinary folks.

As for myself, I am still long some Shanghai H shares and long-term ETF US in modern energy. However would like to cash them out and keep the poweder dry.
Hence I am looking for another high into 1110, while the current drop concludes around 1035. The market would reveal to you once it has reached a interim bottom, no need to buy into a falling knife.

The next wave would be the collapse of Sovereign Wealth Funds/ Government Institutions. SWF essentially are the custodians of the blood monies of the nation. However the nation has gone on budget deficits, weakening the SWF. Middleeast SWF would likely take the first hit. Some of them have entered into ventures abroad and now redeeming their stakes at 1/5 of their original investments.
With the coming collapse of Crude oil prices (as long as OPEC does not open up their reserves for audit, PEAK OIL is a fad). PLUS CFTC limits on speculation. 20 dollar oil is possible.

China HU JinTao has pledged at the UN Conference with specific targets and dates on cutting down pollution. Implying the industrial production capacity of China would undergo restructuring, with thousands of inefficient steel mills going away. China ministries have called for a halt to capacity expansion. Notably the state-owned banks have called for a stop to the increase of bank branches. China is smart to curtail its production capacity to tune to its internal consumptions. Otherwise they run the risks of the collapse of their regime.

Unlike US Obama who has not made any pledge on pollution control, other than the vehement campaign to have a Carbon Credit exchange (brainchild of the SQUID aka GS).
The Europeans are very disappointed.

The purpose of Timmy, Bernanke pumping up the market is to let the elites/families to cash out of their long positions. Their purpose is definitely not to save the world. When the elites get back their monies, they would let the market crash once more to deleverage the liquidity. Hence you have all these Paul Volcker, audit the Fed talk.
Question now is whether the corporate CEOs have taken the hint with the first shot across the bow with RIMM result.
Very soon, Atlas would walk away, on a sail on yatch with dozens Heidi look-alike to the Carribean.
Imagine, the world without a Bubble Machine, is like you guys going to work everyday, knowing you would not be paid for the day.

HR 1207 is going to be passed by Congress, and Ron Paul would effectively have his hand in Bernanke jar.
Now like the robber who is trying to sell his loot before the police comes, Bernanke would be in a hurry to get rid of all those purchases from blankfein, diamond.
The mood is changing with public anger spilling onto the streets. and Paul Volcker has spoken about ordely winding up non-bank financial institutions on Thursday.

An interesting side topic. The Singapore SWF was very much in the news that they sold 50% of their stake in Citigroup. The convertible notes into Equities was done at $3.25 and their average selling was at $4 plus. The made billions of profit.

If Citigroup is wiped off, the SWF would still make a loss.

Meanwhile Marc Faber said market may have peaked for 2009, I am worried.

Another side thought:
when GW Bush speaks, nobody really pay attention. (but they watch what US does)
When Obama speaks, everybody knows he is a bluff, and careless what happens next.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

24 September SPX 1035

SPX 1035, first target of this fall. which is the support of the recent uptrend line. For GOLD, it is in the region of 970. now SPX hovering at 1050. DXY first target 77.10, now at 76.60.

Would be see a fall till OCT (wave 4), and another rally into 1110 (Wave 5) to complete this Bear Rally ?

If Charles Lennar is right, OCT we would see the completion of the rally from 666, and then the drop begins (as Daneric call it P3), by December it becomes evident the panic is starting.

Meanwhile, Obama disappoints with no mention of specific pollution cutback targets. While China took the lead and gave specific targets.

While US with its nuclear stockpile rusting is proposing a Nuclear Free world, which unfortunately is not going to bluff those small nations with Nuclear Weapons as their balancer.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

23 September Before FOMC

Daneric bullish, aiming for DXY 74.

Cobra hesistant, quoting 6 positive FED day so far.

Quite pointless fighting the FED. Either stay out or wait for better shorting opportunities at 1110.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

22 September Meredith Whitney spoke

Meredith is asking investors to keep their powder dry. reflecting on the lack of Consumer Credit in the market.
I would rather she speaks more specifically on certain Banks.

I cannot accept that 1.4825 is the top for Euro. I am waiting for 1.5000, dreaming about 1.6000 as well.

22 September 22092009

somebody talk about significance of this date 22092009, I dun see any significance in it.
meanwhile EURO is looking strong, 1.5000 within reach. I.e. this equity drop is a correction towards 1110.

Meanwhile Economist comes out giving GDP prediction of >5% next year. Pretty amazing. Well, we need this type of optimism for a top. Probably to mask the acelerating foreclosures, option ARM reset and corporate bankruptcies.

Tension is in the political circle with Cuomo wanting to prosecute Ken Lewis, with possiblity of implicating Bernanke and Paulson. While Obama trying to talk Paterson into quitting to give the senate seat to Cuomo, hence removing Cuomo from the probe, freeing Bernanke and Paulson eventually.

Dick Chenney did all his moves in the backroom, while Obama plays his card in public view. Sometimes you wonder how good is Rahm Emmanuel.

Euro may just hold 1.4700 for 2 days, with a surge towards 1.5000 on Wednesday afternoon ET.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

19 Sept US Real Estate

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58G5U320090917?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

Option ARMs, the next dropping shoe.

Anyway, JP Morgan released a report saying Real Estates are a good buy. Some went on TV and talk up the market, e.g. saying that a dozen of China Investors are touring America looking for buys.
Ironically, owner of Toll Brothers sold a considerable chunk before the report was released.

As usual, the Chinese are the buyers of last resort.

In Singapore, the property developers and Banks introduce Interest Absorption Scheme (IAS) similar to the US Option ARMs (no installment, no interest till TOP), which came about only early 2009. Hence the Asia properties market has come a full cycle like the US market. the saving grace is that it is not rampant, which may contribute to 10-20% of recent property sales.

As of late, the FBI are investigating Kent Lewis, and also the billions of Bonds seized in Italy/Switzerland crossing.

I keep picking up pple writing about Gold. Think some powerful pple are short at 1000 level and still keeping them. A rise above 1100 would be max pain. Personally looking at 1300.

I guess the IMF annoucement on Friday also serve to help those shorts. It is no new news, it was known months ago.

19 September UUP

picked up quite a lot of talk about USD rally in coming week, e.g. the afterhours spike in UUP (proxy for Bullish USD). Think the market makers doing a setup for a
weaker dollar.

went to checked the charts of e.g. EURJPY, there are some obvious target like 140, current at 134. EURGBP has broken up. and of course the most fuzzy being EURUSD.
I suspect EURUSD may do a dash for 1.5000, or even 1.5500.
All the high Euro is really no good for Europeans MNC, which would reflect lower foreign income. Nonetheless stellar for US companies with a higher overseas earnings.

Hence expect a good 3rd Quarter, through this currency manipulation thing.

The risk is that the top for Equities is already in, and we have a Falling Stock with Falling Dollar. Nonetheless, it may be a phenomemnon of a few weeks.

Earnings in 3 weeks time. As Charles Lennar has said October is time to go defensive, and by December the rally would be over.

My guess:
next week another rally in Equities (after FOMC), with a USD drops towards those Euro targets. SPX to 1100, now at 1070 (easily). ( I believe in the Euro breakout).

Followed by a stronger USD and SPX drops in October.

As for GOLD it would touch 1000 and bouce up for 1050 and 1070. The IMF Gold sales annoucement on Friday may be a false news.(they never sell though they say they intend to).

I now some analyst (e.g. Calfutia, Daneric) are calling for a drop into 1050, 1030 for another rally upwards.

However I believe we are in a blowup phase, and the market makers is working hard to attain the level, rather than shaking off weak long.

Nonetheless next year this time, we would be at most lower levels. If you are short, just invest in it and walk away. Otherwise play small long scalping the market.

If you know that Obama is the Anti-Christ, he has induced this Devil Rally to suck in people monies and eventually rob them of their wealth.

Look on the political fronts, he causes deeper rifts in Americans with his socialist stance. He saves the Bankers not the ordinary people. (his TARP monies could have been given to cut housing mortgages).

He abandoned his allies, Poland, Czechslovakia and decide to stop the anti-missle weapon. It weaken other nations like Georgia, and enlarges Russian influence on the central Europe.

Israel did not listen to Obama and went ahead to enlarge the settlement in West Bank.
Israel dun be surprise that oneday, Obama would change his mind and sell off Israel to Eqypt, Saudi, Jordan.

Iran is very close to weaponising it enriched plutonium (thanx to Russian commercial assistance). Though it is willing to talk, and talk, and talk.

North Korean has learnt to unclanch it fist and pretend talk to buy time to get Iranian knowhow in nuclear technology. Then Myannmar would not be far behind.

By 2010, we would have 3 nuclear capable rogue nations: Iran, North Korea, Myannmar all surrounding China.

Obama has orchestrated the recede of US power, and allowed rogue nations to fill its absense. I suspect his intent is on China.

Meanwhile China is basking in charm iniatives from US and enjoying the limelight of the recognition of a new economic power.

Read an article on how China bank officials and property investors churn loans. Loans of 1 yr tenure get reloaned to a different identification at a higher price, and it rolls up with higher prices. The last genuine buyer would have to pay the price. It is like the Stock Market. In between the bank officials get a cut of cash.

We are in extraorindary time.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

14 September Obama Victory Speech

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html

Idle ships off the Malacca Straits. Excess capacities.

Condos built, no occupants.

This explains why the market rallies. The market need the food for the winter.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

13 Sept Admonish the HOUSE

Bearish:
http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/
Wavetrader spotted XLF, Transport may have started descent, beginning of P3. watching 993 for confirmation.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808
Marice Walker seeing 1048 as a backtest, doji candle.

Bearish
Evil speculator.
See a good short for the Transports. See a rebound in USD.

Unsure:
Daneric not committing anything. see potential top using Wilshire. threaten a 4-5% drop on Obama Victory speech on Monday.

Bullish then bearish
Charles Lennar
Lennar sees rally in this 3 weeks till end September. October dangerous, December ends the bear market rally.

Bullish
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
Sees 1050 then 1120.

Me ?
I see a gap high into 1050, and then drop for 2-3 days for OPEX. Then stabilise for the final stab, would not rule out a capitulation towards 1110 to complete the scam job. TO have capitulations, we need to have a gathering of shorts for the Squeeze. If you are a good scalper, then you can make monies on the next up move. If you have lots of monies, invest a little in shorts (not margin).

Charles Lennar, Pretcher has called the top.
How about Bernanke ? (Question: WHY WOULD BERNANKE ALLOW THE MARKET TO DROP ? Clue: HE WAS NOMINATED BY THE REPUBLICAN)

Courtesy of Currency War. The first shot has been fired over the bow with Rubber Tyres, next Poultry.
Washington march 912 after the Texas Teaparty.
People are getting angry with the cahoots of Bernanke, Geithner, Blankfein, Barney the Dino, Chris Dog, the elite in Ayn Rand "Atlas Shrugged".
Would ATLAS teach the People a lesson or the People teach Atlas a lesson.

If it is start of P3, we are in a historic moment in weeks, admidst a decline lasting 15 years.

Support Joe Wilson
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/12/wilson.fundraising/index.html

America needs to have dignity though it is suffering. Stop the government meddling in citizens private matters, and bleeding Tax Payers monies feeding the Bankers.

Just finished watching the movie "TAKEN" by Liam Neeson, story of Middle-eastern buying American virgins. Guess where the Squids spend their billions ? GOD would catch up with them.

http://www.myfoxaustin.com/dpp/news/politics/dpg_house_joe_wilson_lwf_091109_3458782

The house plans to admonish Joe Wilson next week. We, the people, need to admonish the house.

Quote from:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125258756088899359.html
"The moment the speech ended, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel charged over to three Republicans -- Reps. Ryan, Roy Blunt of Missouri and Kevin McCarthy of California -- demanding in a profanity-laced tirade that they force Mr. Wilson to apologize."
Rahm, the God Father of the Presidency,
Nancy, the God Mother of the Presidency.

13 September Ayn Ryan "Atlas Shrugged"

USD would collapse (at a certain point in future) however US would not necessarily collapse. US would lead in the formation of a new monetary system. The outcome would be the cancellation of US debt, and Gold has a role to play (while US is still the nation with the largest stockpile of Gold). Henceforth the BRIC economies would tumble.

Read Ayn Rand "Atlas Shrugged". You would understand the Design, the Intent of the people in the "Eye of the Pyramid".

China would suffer a jolt when it foreign reserves suddenly disappeared. It has lost its power to fund its stimulus and pay for any USD redemption. The CCP would collapse overnight, with the Chairman, council members, province chief all sent to the gullotine. (that is what keep Preimier Wen JiaoBao awakes at night). The communist are worried about their legitimacy when its coffers are confiscated. RMB would be on its path of demise, reversing decade long appreciation.

China is now at a cross road, should it accelerates its commodities buying program, when prices are rising are bços of its purchase, and excess commodities has led to excess production. (China government is already calling for a halt to steel and car production).
The days are closing in on China when its Treasuries would be confiscated. Then the CCP would have lost its legitmate power to govern. And US would once again claim ownership of China with US led democracy formation.
This is the much touted "Currency War", and so far China is on the losing end.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

12 Sept Mexican Pastor hijacked plane to warn of Earthquake on 9/9/9

http://www.rfi.fr/actuen/articles/117/article_5081.asp

today SPX reached high of 1048.18.
meanwhile slumping to 1040 on a Friday afternoon. Expect a pullback on Monday, Tuesday before OPEX. then another rally amidst FOMC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDaADw2buNgg

Now US and China in tyres disputes. Courtesy of companies like GoodYear who makes tyres in China and export them back to US due to the Cash for Clunkers demand.

Usually when there is Trade Dispute, it is bad for USD.
As Japan Prime Minister wife has claimed she went to Venus kidnapped by UFOs.

All these point to a weakening USD. USDJPY would break 90, last low was 90.20. Expect some support in Asia Monday to suck in buyers.

Whispers on blogs has DXY back to 20. Lowest that I can see on my simple chart program is 70.792, Friday low was 76.457. Now how can I find 20 on the chart ?

Euro on its march (you know what, I almost forgot what is the sybmol for Euro) towards 1.5000. (personal expectation is 1.7000).

GBP would break 1.7000 scaring the short positions.

This USD weakness is not a symptom of risk taking but a crisis in itself. Bernanke was quite comfortable with EURO at 1.4000 or lower bços he believes that a lower USD aids manufacturing output.

Gold is going to rocket from its launching platform at 1000.

The collapse of the USD would mark the collapse of FED as an authority to rule over a world reserve currency. The next crisis that plunge the world into Pretcher wave 3 or the continuation of the K-wave wuold be different. It is the FED crisis.

Grandma Janet Yellen boast of FED credibility and capability to forecast. However most know that a fortune teller cannot fortell his own fate.

FED collapse would drag all other central banks in toll. Now it is the crisis of the CENTRAL BANKS.

It would be quite funny to see Crude hovering 67 to 70, when the Dollar is collapsing. OPEC threshold of pain is below 70. I guess with a rapidly depreciating dollar and crude hangs around at 70, OPEC would be pretty amused. This tells of Deflation, not Inflation.

The market always surprises. It would take the path where most never thought of.

German election on the Horizon, what if Angela Merkel is defeated ?

Another thought on the China market. A lot of so called HOT MONIES are actually the ill-gotten gains of the State officials which went underground and re-emerge in stock accounts at brokerages. On the coming People party Congress, China would institute new party rule to mandate disclosure of personal wealth. Hence a lot of the Party Officials are scrambling to move monies outside of China. Hence profit taking on the stock market is inevitable.

China is holding its party meeting from 15-18 September, followed by National Celebration for 60 years establishment, expect some China market rallies towards the date: 1 October.

Also expect SPX to rally towards the date as well for the final crescendo.

Friday, September 11, 2009

11 Sept Charles Lennar spoke / Debtor Revolt, walk away from your Credit Card

Charles say go into defensive in 3 weeks time, meaning, October. and then the Rally would end in December.

I.e. we still got some more legs in this rally into September FOMC and then into the 3rd Quarter earningins, disappointment, a drop and then another rally into high into December.

Ken Lewis and his 30% interest rate AND Debtor Revolt.



Gold is telling your something: the coming collapse of the Federal Reserve.
To realise Pretcher wave 3, it has to be something catastrophic like the colllapse of Federal Reserve, and the collapse of USD means the collapse of Federal Reserve as well.

11 Sept Sign of times

Obama heckled by Joe Wilson during his Healthcare speech to the houses. Obama would go downhill from here.
You can see the obvious apprehension on Nancy Pelosi, the guardian angel, face. Even the devil has a mother.




Pretcher spoke weeks before when 1018 was hit and called it top. (however he also mentioned his target is 1000 to 1110). then market went to 1039. then Yamada came out, non-commital, talked of putting trailing stops to long, market went to 992. now yesterday we have Charles Lennar.
market is now in its parabolic phase (a laughable one, bcos there is no public participation, just short covering. we can't have a top when John Mack sellls to Blankfein, and then sells to Lewis, may be Buffet or China would be the last sucker).
The instruments to short is severly curtailed, like no stocks to borrow, ETF under review, etc.
Of course nothing goes up forever, some stocks are already near to their 2007 high. we are in a multidecade Kondrtatieff cycle. The bears would have her days again. Meanwhile if you have cash, put it aside and wait, maybe 6 months to 1 year for some fantastic deals.
Otherwise, go long small time and take the ride with tight stops. 992 to 1040 get you 50 points again.
If you have nothing better to go, goto muscleman beach and pump, rather than pumping stupid monies into shorts.

My forecast is 1110, meanwhile there would be wide swings from here to the destination. The swings would be contained, nothing that would panic Bernanke.

Almost forgot, today is 911.
Gold has completed its 2 day correction, and now on it rise towards 1050.
Bernanke let the caged Gold monster out, and he is going to regret this.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

10 Sept State of the Market / the life of an Apple

Singapore, HK market made new high today. SG market broke 2700. While FTSE broke 5000. SPX continues its climb.
SG property market is in a frenzy, while new condominium launches attract mobs, handing in blank cheques, prices in sunurban area attracting prices at 1000 dollar psf. Reminiscent of 1996 bubble.
Brokers on talk show talk of further upside, possiblities of bubble formation in stock market.(as if the current is not bubble).

Looking at monthly charts of most indices, the current rally is nothing sort of spectacular. Except that last Nov low/March low has a MACD confirmation, i.e. lower low to come.

Economic data are all improving. we may see a ballistic 3Qtr Earnings.

My view is that market has higher to go to 1050 then a pullback and then 1110 (888+222=1110, 888-666=222).

The risk:
the current breakout in AUDUSD has MACD confirmation. as AU economy improves, we cannot rule out 0.9, now at 0.8595.

Somehow the markets would break, however the right ingredient has to be inplace.

Yesterday, in FT a Credit Suisse analyst cites 3 triggers:
(a) Fed raising rates (only in 2nd half 2010),
(b) Bank funding difficulties
(c) Sudden collapse in China markets

I would like to add
(d) Geopolitical events. Israel air raid Iran.
(e) Swine flu mutates into killer virus.
(f) Earthquake sinking california

now most players are in Long positions, it is upto the marginal player to call the shots. The world need another Jerome Kervail to short another 50Billion of futures.

Tailgating on high speed would eventually lead to crash when the first car decides to screech to a halt.

If you look at AAPL, GOOG, they are just whiskers away from NOV 2007 high. If there is a correction, it is going to be Equally brutal for the Bulls. In fact if the Bear Market rally is 150 Km/hour, then we would have a Ferrari at 230 km/hour. In fact the drop would be precarious, it has to rise to considerable heights. It is this TOP that we are calling.

Apple has been playing disappearing/appearing game with Jobs. AAPL high now around 174.

nonethless as the PPT is very active, be careful, and prudent.

Charles Lennar spoke, top in Dec. however watch out Oct.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

8 September Knowing

just finished watching the movie "Knowing" by Nicholas Cage. If you know the future, probably you would hide in a cottage waiting for the eventuality.

Solar flare is a true threat to the Earth. The current Global Warming can be attributed to the Sun getting hotter, other than Human carbon emission. How ? According to some atronomist (yet ot be verified), the distance between the Earth and Sun is shrinking.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSp9VoPeHquI

This United Nations Report basically tells of what Central Bankers have been doing, quietly swapping out their USD into GOLD, Euro, GBP, etc. Not to mention selling US Tbills, Bonds.
With the view that in the not so distant future, a GLOBAL Bank and a GLOBAL Currency would be established.

Probably IMF with a change of the voting rights, and issuing some form of a GLOBAL Currency would mark the demise of the FED.

Not to mention Ron Paul has an agenda to dismantle the FED calling for more transparency and audit.

As some has prophecied that Pope Benedict would be the last Pope on Earth, Bernanke would be be the last FED Chairman.

As expected, China market is staging its last rebound. Gold has surpassed 1000, and we would not see Gold lesser than 1000 in our lifetime.

Does GOLD herald the impending Hyperinflation era ? or the coming demise of the Fiat currency ?

Tuesday, US Market would open with a Bang and on its farewell march.

Tomorrow is 9 September 2009, 999 in short.

Bob Pretcher has a new Radio Broadcast, explaining his Deflationary view, and his coming new Book of course, sequel to "Conquer the Crash".

Tony Caldero tells of a Gap Down on Tuesday market open. Seems like this grandmaster of EW would get "F" today when US market opens.

So far nothing sinister on the Horizon.

I have added NOAA to my watch list besides the Swine Flu and Earthquake watch.

Dispicable Obama is trying to speak to our children urging them to work hard to pay off the nation's Debt.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100000821/china-bernanke-and-the-price-of-gold/

Bernanke backstop propel SPX from 666 to 1039,
China backstop is going to propel Gold to 1300 at least.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

6 September China

yes, I was in China for the past week, and China blocks Blogger. I would share with you guys some thoughts that I have gathered over this past week.
stay tune.

Friday, August 28, 2009

28 August Crude is relentless

Crude formed a bullish divergence on its last drop. If it breaks 75, it is going for 85 and then 90, then 100, no doubt about that. With Peak Oil, and occasional tankers collision, Oil would probably want to float despite the slowing down of China demand.
Reason: Hyperinflation, thanx to Ben Bernanke.

The FED has been secretly monetizing debt, buying Agencies Debt from China, and selling Treasuries to them in return.

Gold is in a multimonth giant Pennant formation. also on a hourly pennant. This has to be resolved either Today or next week. Preference for a quick rise to 1000 and beyond to trigger a massive short covering.
Reason: Gold knows something that we do not.

John Paulson has gone to buy 2% of Citi. Smart people like him probably bought 10% much earlier and now want to sell all of them, and finding buyers scarce except himself.

All the Hedgies who went in, now have problem taking profit. Buyers are hard to come by. Consumers are weak. Cash for Clunkers basically suck up the future monies of American homes into a pile of gas goppling metal. Good new home sales mean people are putting monies into home not consumption.

Probably the Equities market would be like John Paulson selling to Blankfein, then selling to Jaimie Diamond,etc.

AUD halted its fall and now rising again, closing in on 0.85 and beyond. 0.900 is in view.

The base of USD index may just give way into 70 very rapidly. Bringing on the de-facto Dollar Crisis which people has written about since 2000. 71 would not hold and then the deep fall into the Abyss.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

27 August Kass called for top

yes, Kass said that the market topping now, would be down for the rest of the year. Other indicators are not bright, China government calling to cut down on capacities in everything, steel mills, etc. Though they still maintain a loose Credit Policy. I.e. you can have the monies, but make sure you dun overbuild.

This would put a lid on the government monies flowing into the stock market. Now the monies left are the people's monies and the external speculators monies.

As the property market has sucked in a fair amount of people's side monies, spare cash for stock investment is limited. Wonder how the hot monies are going to get out, if there are already loaded.

Nonetheless, the government is expected to provide support at Shanghai Composite 2500 ahead of the 1 October Communist Party congress and the October long holiday.

It is still uncertain if the post October rally would happen, but some analyst are touting so. Guess there would be some buying in September.

27 August Mocking the market: U fighters

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1000993/1/.html

Staff of the labour movement have earned a new accolade from their chief for helping to upturn the downturn - they are called "U" fighters.

the labour ministers of Singapore mocking the market by calling themselves U fighter.

What if they get the alphabet wrong ?
do they go back to primary school to relearn the alphabets ?

FDIC voting on Private Equity buying distressed banks capital requirments at 3:30 pm.
May be the flame for the next move higher.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

26 August Mississippi and South Sea Bubble

I am not a history buff, but I have read in 2 commentaries (one written by TradingAce, another in a Chinese site “香港平民股神”曹仁超:中国须当心弄巧成拙) about the French King Louis 14, he initiated QE to the French colonies, cumulating in the Mississippi bubble. (similar in the South Sea bubble in Great Britian) then around 1720. Then chaos ensue and his grandson Louis 16 was sent to the Gullotine.

In modern era, we dun send Alan Greenspan to the Gullotine, neither can we send Bernanke to the Gullotine. But millions families would be devastated.

In China, we still have Firing Squads. If the China stimulus morph into the equivalence of the Mississippi or South Sea Bubble, the CCP would collapse, and every cadre from the Chairman, the state CEO and the village chief would be sent to the firing squad.

I have this eerie feeling that the Squid Goldman Sachs want to precipitate a regime change in China by leading the Chinese on.

Perhaps it is already late, as the damages have been done.

I count another Bull Market Oracle, DOW to 10,000 by October.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

25 August Blind Optimism

Shanghai did not manage to hold above 3000. Wen JiaBao at the Economics forum said "Blind Optimism". It is like Alan Greenspan "Irrational Exuberance".

Then in a local HK website that provides charting tools, it says Funds inflow into HK markets, buying HKD, selling USD. I went to check the USD/HKD chart, flat as usual. The boys are ready to pull out, and spreading false news.

Most blogs I read now are bullish, Calfutia, Afraid to Trade, etc.

When others are greedy, you should be fearful. We still the proverbial Black Swan for this one.

Meanwhile FED ordered by Judge to reveal its lending to banks.

Baltic Dry Index has been plunging. Those of you who long AUD, better get out. so does Copper.

Monday, August 24, 2009

24 August "C going to 5 before going to Zero"

today C has reached 5 as of morning trade. expect a pullback and another test.

24 Aug Americans are angry



Obama does smell like the Nazis.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

23 August Louise Yamada

It is now Louise Yamada turn after Pretcher last week. I have embeded the MP3 on the right. Louise admits that now is one of the toughest market in her whole career.

Final Destination preview 28 August in US.

The second American revolution has begun with the arrival of Obamageddon. First short April 15 Tea Party, Second shot 4 July and the 3rd shot with the healthcare townhall meetings.

Obama, the BEAST, has brought on the demise of America.

China market.
China marhet has rose to 3500, above is a thick cumulation of buyers from last yrs who were trapped in the range of 3600 to 4000 from april 2007. let us see if anybody want to do national service to give out monies to the retail.

Friday, August 21, 2009

21 August Friday OPEX

The usual wisdom now in the market is to complete the Wave C in the region of 1050, where B finished at 978 and A finished at 1018 from 869. (see Daneric wave count).

Expected a drop on Friday for a small pullback for (ii), when (i) completed yesterday at 1008.

Let us see what Bernanke would say at Jackson Hole to put flame on another rally up towards 1050.

We are definitely at the end game rather than the beginning of this rally from 666. Hence be prudent with long or short positions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSTRE57J4RP20090820

Citigroup shares use to plunge whenever there is news of assets sales last year. Now asset sales become good for the shares.

Cash for Clunkers would end on 24 August, i.e. less incentives for car buyers, i.e. the inventory built up by the Car manufacturers especially GM would be sitting idle in 4th Qtr.

The leading indicator came in at 0.6%, previous month was 0.7%, if you look at the chart, you can see a hook pointing down, i.e. we are at a turning point.

The Baltic Dry Index has been declining for weeks.

The rally on Wed, Thursday can be attributed to Crude rising in the news of lowering inventory. Market is in the midst of looking for direction.

We see Buffet talking down dollars, so does some columnist, sign of funds building Dollar position.
Euro performance has been weak.
For the Bulls, their hope of a higher SPX would be the devaluation of the Dollar on inflation expectation, higher commodities, etc. Just like what happened in 2007, when Stocks were on a climb when Dollar was creeping down.

However, the Deflationary forces are more intense now after so many stimulus monies and ZERO rates for quite a while. Curbs on commoditues speculation are in progress. China pausing commodities stockpiling.

The Bulls have a tough job, when the short sellers are not there to cover.

Mizuho Nicole Elliot (the Dollar bear) has gone on leave since last Friday till 1 September.

Strangely Nikkei has been on a tear downwards 10,000.

Watch Dow industrials for 9000

HangSeng for 20000

Shanghai composite for 3000, all these are round figures with great psychological impact.

Chinese just entered into the month of Ghost today. It is the month when the Chinese worships their dead ancestors, and commercial activities slow down, especially new house purchases, etc.

Personally, I look forward to a tumbling of Equities back below March low, SPX towards 577, and USD to tumble as well to all time low of 60. This scenario would take a great panic in the market, when the much awaited final collapse of USD has come. (one which people has waited since 2000). In such a scenario, capital would flee US on threat of capital control in US.

Of course this remains a Black Swan event. Today conventional wisdoms says a rising market with a slowly depreciating dollar.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

19 August Free Fall

some nobel economists appear to talk about Banks to reflect true value of assets. If GS falls through the rising ladder, it is free fall.
China is on free fall already.

the devastating about last year fall was that buyers keep coming in at various level.

Let us hear what Bernanke has got to say on the Fed seminar in Wyoming with world wide Central Bankers present.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

16 Aug Christmas

We are still months away from Christmas, 4 months away. However the market is on a tight rope. The market is waiting upon the Christmas orders. China is waiting, Asia is waiting for the orders which should be in by now.
However the Christmas orders are not in yet.

Christmas holds the keys, Christmas buyers waiting on the market, the market waiting on the Christmas buyers.

16 Aug Bob Pretcher weekend

Bob is confident that bear market would extend into decade. And there would not be sideway but down. Up a year or 2 in dollar.



He made the call and broadcasted on 11 Aug. 8 trading days into OPEX August. We still got 4 more days to take profit.

Meanwhile Bloomberg is running his interview over and over again on this weekend.

Bob made the call of bottom on 25 Feb 2009, 7 days before the March low on 6 March 2009.


He made the market top call when S&P was 1519 on 19 Oct 2007.


However, other bloggers:

Michael Vadon calling for Nasdaq to return to 2000 high. he observed that institutional monies have rotate out of defensive stocks into growth stocks and tech. UP.

Daneric argues that (E) of B was completed on Friday low at 994, and we are going into C UP.

Cobra in Cobra's Market View is expecting a UP Monday.

Calfutia says down to 980 then up to 1100 and beyond. UP.

Afraid To Trade, DOWN unless 1020 broken.

Market Club Adams Hewinson shows video of a possible downslide. He is focusing on the rise from 869 and possible retracement. DOWN.

Tim Boste mentioned the return Lunar on 18 August. Down.

Nonetheless, the end Friday prop back to 1004 is worrying for the bears.

Everbody is now expecting 1020 and beyond. Probably the bulls want to get out at higher levels like 1020-1050. A parabolic rise towards OPEX cannot be rulled out.

Otherwise, 1018 would be the top for the rally from 666 if the records of Bob Pretcher is anything to go by.

The BIG QUESTION is: Is there time for the Bulls to exit ?

How about me ? I see some inching higher beyond 1012 but not much. If it falls, the gap at around 910 would be target. Meanwhile expectation for a fall if it happen to be 950-960. I would leave the last 10-20 points in SPX to our hardworking GS traders.

Saturday, August 15, 2009

15 August AUDUSD / FDIC Bankrupt

we are now back to 4th Qtr 2007, when Central Bankers were worried about inflation, and wanting to raise rates. The first one being Australian Central Banker Glenn Stevens.

If you look at the monthly chart of AUDUSD, you see the rebound of AUDUSD from 0.6 has been awfully strong. Now at 0.85 about there. Remember not too long ago, people were talking about PAR with USD.

Then you start to think and realise that something is wrong. China has slowed down its progress of restocking, Australian Rio Tinto, BHP no longer has the means to "manipulate" contract prices. Baltic Dry Index looks like going back to retest the low of Nov last year. American consumers are pulling back big time.

A lot of rich Asian investors have piled into AUD because of its yield of 3%. AUDUSD most recent low in 2001 is 0.48. There is positive confirmation of the low in Nov 2008 at 0.6007.
As this is monthly chart, the top may be in Oct/Nov this yr.

Looking at forex charts and a clear mind on the fundamentals, give us a better understanding of the on-going in the Equities market.

It is all Bullshit rally afterall.

(cannot post charts, problem with blogger)

Important Update.

FDIC is unofficially Bankrupt.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/as-of-friday-august-14-2009-fdic-is.html

and of course more monies printing over this weekend.

Some analyst comes out and talk about the 500Billion debt of General Electric, a company borrowing lots of monies and with negative Cashflow.

I still remembered last yr, C rose from 5 to 9 and then began its fall to 1.