17 Feb Man on a Ledge

yes, I am having an escape from China for a while, at least over the weekend. Here now in HK. China had a good rally as promised to SHCOMP 2350 and above. HSI above 21000. China government was promising some buying from their state pension funds, and also promise to support Euro effort.
While, the Euro plots thickens with glimmer of Greece default.
With or without a default, the market is going to rally. Default means surgery done, recovery on the way. No default means everything is well.
SPX is going to go parabolic in near future to 1450. Evidence: Euro still above 1.300 with strong buying below. Some body is buying Gold at 1700. And every SPX intraday dip is bought.
As the news has it Paulson selling GOLD to Soros and PIMCO. Retails ain't left, otherwise they would buy the physical American Eagles. Me personally stocking up on Panda Silver 1 KG coins. As you know Numismatics coin like great paintings, their only way is up. India import of Gold has dropped 40%. When I was in Beijing, every major department stores has plentiful gold retails shops, with shoppers trickling in.
So Precious metals would soon be left traded among the Big Hedge Funds. Similarly for SPY, etc.
The horror stories of credit default in China linger. Recent was a billionaire in the media/education business absconded. And the boss of a China shipbuilding business, listed on London AIM, fleed after missing bank payments. China businessman are a different type, they don't wait till their death to reap profit, unlike Steve Jobs who missed Apple at 500.
Apples days are now numbered in China. With Shenzhen court ruling against Apple in copyright infringement, as IPAD is a registered trademark by a Shenzhen company. So now Apple has to share every dollar it makes with somebody else.
Anyway the word IPAD is a sissy word, like in sanitary pad. Guys who hug a IPAD eventually goes SISSY. I believe Steve has a curse on every IPAD, it would suck your soul.
In China, youtube, facebook, blogger, google are banned. China has its own version of Tencent, Renren, etc. And these tools are espionage tools with hidden backdoors. So American scientist who watches Miss Chinese banging, inadvertently landed themselve as drone in their system.
Mr Vice-chariman Xi JinPing did a aboutface on Obama, doing a propaganda tour in US, singing peace with Americans. And Obama was rather contrived in his remarks with Xi. So instead of scoring points with scolding China, Obama has allowed China to spread charm on American soils, coupled with the NBA Linsanity. The China era is coming. With Chinese companies slowing buying up competitors.
Watch the IDES of March, as I told you so, QE3 is coming and it would be the last of the Federal Reserve system. Also watch the movie "Man on a ledge" showing in US on the 27 Feb 2012 (a Monday), as we are moving closer and closer to the edge.

Eventually Obama has no choice but to declare war on Iran, as the powerful Jews, Freemasons, Illuminati as wanted.

With this current rally, the European banks were able to cash out of their investment in China companies amidst a new high for RMB at sub 6.3 to USD.

6 Feb pause

yes, it is not easy to access blogger in China.
meanwhile, Asia markets having a pause. Gold retreating. With ECB LTRO at monthend, and Greek dateline on 20 March. We should be able to sustain till then.

ECB rate cut on Thursday should spur the next rally to the interim top before a larger pullback. Buy on dips. QQQQ good buy at 60, if not 56.

Meanwhile lots of clamour for China to release ower bank reserve. While unauthorised Gold exchanges in China have to migrate customer accounts onto Shanghai Commodity exchange.

Common wisdom, China having a soft landing and US recovery is speeding up.

28 Jan Off to Beijing

Ok, we wrapped up this week of Davos meeting. Conclusion: the market is still in a bull mode, as US recovery is gaining steam and the FED is providing a floor with hopes of QE3.
Euro is prevented from collapse with QE3 coming in March. Market is expecting a deal in the Eurozone by Sunday. This deal is the result of last November Eurozone solution. They bought 3 months of time to reach this coming deal. If it falls through for some reason, assumptions made last Nov is no longer valid.
The next big rally in coming in China when it opens its market on 30 Jan. I am flying off from Zurich to Beijing now, I have taken some profits on my US trades and now have invested them in China via HK H shares.
I see an extended wave 3 in SPX, which brings us to 1360, from the current 1313 level. This is to support next week FACEBOOK IPO and the rally in China, Taiwan.

As China blocks blogger, I may not be able to post. However I am updating my subscribers through newsletter. You may sign up as a follower of this blog and I exercise my discretion if I want to include you in my newsletter.

Happy trader, trader safely.

27 Jan 666 666

you know what, to my horror, 666 + 666 we get 1333. SPX hit 1333.

Tom Keanne has to bring out Stiglitz in Davos to talk about unknown Credit Risk, contagion, blah, blah, blah.

Shit, things not going right. The Funds guys are meeting tonight at the Piano bar, let me get over there and ask them what is going on, stay tune.

Update
--------
The Funds guy told me bcos of the Coronal Mass Ejeculation (CME) this early morning, (see the Auroras in US), some of the HFT machines were short circuited. They are fixing it now in New York. Expected time of recovery is 2pm, right after the New York lunch. The escalator climb would resume.
Phew!!!!

http://fukushima-diary.com/

now the Fukushima kids are picking up Thyroid cancer, and the school is stopping them from evacuating.
My Tokyo colleagues in Tokyo are now asking for return home, incase the Japanese government institute border control like what you see in movies.

Update 11 pm ET
--------------------
sorry, I got too relaxed in the piano bar and fell asleep. Anyway, the HFT said they restarted the Algos, but use the parameters of last yr, so pushed in the wrong way.
Nonetheless, they got it fixed ready for Friday opening. They advice me to enter pre-market open for the wave 5 move towards 1360.
Meanwhile HK opened to a new high.
So at least the markets are all now in sync for the next move higher when China reopens on 30 Jan.
In Davos, they lined up Noreil Rubini, Joseph Stiglitz and Stephen Roach to scare everybody into selling.

26 Jan Iran ready to talk

now Iran says it is ready to talk, and crude ram through 100.
next week the Chinese is coming back from holidays, and mid of Feb, China next premier Xi Jin Ping is going to White House, a China rally is inevitable.

And Obama is going to give this Mr Xi a lecture on trade while on national TV. It is a election ploy and China is willing stepping into it, in the name of appeasing America.
When Obama wins the election, he is going to tighten the noose around China in the China sea. What has to come has to come.

In the academiac circle, it is expected that in 2018, China would surpass US as the world economic power. And by then, China would have its fleet of 5 to 10 aircraft carriers. It is also the timeframe, when China would take over Taiwan in some form.

So expecting a mild pullback in SPX and ram through 1330, 1340. This would last till end of Feb,  target 1400. Though the rally in China would be fast and furious, as one Baring Asset manager has spoken in HK today. A lot of Funds are positioned for this coming rally for SHCOMP to top out around 2500.

Everything is Hunky-Doory, with low rate till 2015, time to take up some cheap loans and invest for quick gains.

Merkel is giving hint of a Greece default. And IMF, ECB are preparing the firefall when the Credit Event takes place.  Hopefully it is just 15billions for JP Morgain. While Worldback is preparing 50billions for countries affected.
Rightfully without intervention, Gold should be around 2300 by now.

Apple has become a large part of S&P interms of capitalisation. S&P is not going to recede unless something dire happens to Apple. The tickerguy has stepped up his attack on Apple linking it to its main contractor Foxconn and its frequent incidents of workers suicide. (pretty sure, the workers lay curse on the IPADs, IPHONEs, so good luck if you buy one).

this Europe crisis is now degraded to a concert, or a farce. So nobody is really trading on it. Euro is keeping its steam, ready for 1.3300 and beyond.

It is cold and thick snow in Davos here.

Meanwhile in Asia, a Asian bank's brokerage had a breakdown in their trading system for the entire morning trading session,
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1179138/1/.html

A lot of moms and pops lost their monies, not able to sell when the market starts to slam down.
In thin market, every cents count. The brokerage is not so generous to allow you to take profit on their warehoused deals.

25 Jan FOMC and the American Day of Shame

profit taking ahead of FOMC across all instruments. Most notable is the USDJPY move, with JPY weakening, after Noda announces to raise sales tax to offset deficit. Though it has to be passed by parliament and instituted year after.
Seems like Japan is now feeling the pressure of Deficit crisis. Would the rating agencies wait for Noda ?
Japan also lower economic forecast. Higher taxes in slower growth.

Would Benny annonces QE3 to give Japan a boost ?

State of the Union
------------------
instead of going after those Banksters who fleeced taxpayers monies, Obama announced war on millionaires. This made Jim Rogers who quit his US Citizenship years ago seem so smart.
30% tax is big deal. Imagine a hard-working executive who has to contribute $3 for every $10 he earns to fund some drunkards on the streets, it is hard to stomach.
So Obama has made this a Rich-Poor election, with Romney right at the opposite.
While congressman having to pay 30% tax, however they have other grey incomes. While academic staff like me, slogs through schedules, have to lose 30%. This is simply not acceptable.

With World Economic Forum at Davos, a growing audience is really pissed by Obama and wants a Atlas shrug moment.


Obama wants to setup a sanction China Trade Commission, while China Chairman in waiting, XI Jin Peng wold be travelling to US in FEB. XI has more to answer than to request. Like the rampant accounting fraud in China companies listed on Nasdaq.
Now it seems like there is some form of anti-dumping tax on anything mass manufactured from China, like rubber tyres, solar components, etc.


Update from Davos
--------------------
UK is really in the spotlight, with its chances of a Western offshore center for RMB growing. Next institutions would remit monies into London in GBP, and then convert to RMB. In a way GBP is "pegged" to RMB. This "peg" would also make RMB more convertible.
So one of the blackswan trade would be the rally of GBP back to its glorious days.
While Germany and EU would provide for a cheaper Euro to make the Southern Europe more competitive.
Of course, if you want to assault GBP, you need the nod from Uncle George, the master of Currency War.

I would be meeting some Free-Masonites and Illuminati to plot the next move.

Update from Davos update 1 am ET 25 Jan 2012
--------------------------------------------------
We are now clustered in this cosy suites of ours in this swanky hotel in Davos, and ready to trigger the trade at 1 am ET. Our pals have just returned from their Chinese New Year holiday, we are ready to make this first trading day of the Black Dragon year a bang. 5 more minutes.

Now all my Europeans colleagues are grinning smugly at us, the Americans, with the thought that finally all Americans and Europeans academics and executives are now on par with taxes.

Side chat
----------
sitting in a cafe, one guy was trying to sell insurance linked investment product to a couple. He has to talk about conspiracy theories, having attended a funeral to persuade them to buy.

Update US 10 AM ET
-------------------------
current pullback seen as wave 4, for the eventual wave 5 after Bernanke talk today.
Obama state of union:
Hundreds years ago, Afroamerican is liberated and given equal rights as their white masters. Yesterday, January 24 2012, a descendant of the Afroamerican created a rift between the whites and the blacks, instead of uniting the nation.
It would be remembered in American history as the day of shame.
And the shadow of the BEAST is getting clearer towards the fateful day of the Winter Equinox.

SPX should be heading towards 1300, and then again to test 1320 and onwards into 1330 to 1340, before a larger pullback.
While Euro would hit below 1.2900 and then off to 1.3150 to 1.3200.
Gold may drop to 1620, then onwards into 1700, 1900 and off to 2500 eventually.

Essential wait for dips, and go aggressive on longs. This shold carry into early Feb 3.

23 January QE3 is coming and the State of the Union address

by the action of Euro, Gold, AUD and their parabolic rises, QE3 is coming.
In thin Asia trading, Euro rams through all the shorts, and triggered the avalanche of shorts covering.

SPX to vault over 1320 at open. If you have access to pre-Market open, do it.

Currently in Davos, going to meet up with Mr George.
According to my contacts, Benny would announce QE3 after the State of the Union address.

Update
--------
Impressive Euro rally from 1.26 to 1.3052. The bears are killed for sure, especially the Asian bears who got their margins eaten amidst the holidays.
Though SPX is taking a dip from 1320, wait for divergence and go long again. Ahead of FOMC, dun get caught on the wrong position.

CNBC is running a documentary on the missing billions issued by the FED in Iraq. And fake USD million dollar Lincoln bonds are appearing in Philippine.

Iran is threatening Homuz blockade after the decision from Europe. Though it takes 6 months before those Europe embargo kicks in.

21 Jan Fukushima Diary and the Anti-Christ.

Against the Media Blackout in Japan on Fukushima nuclear reactor reporting, some brave souls have been setting up blogs to record the on-goings.

http://fukushima-diary.com/category/bnews/
www.enenews.com

Suspected Hydrogen explosion in Reactor 4 has happened in January. And the Spent Fuel Pool (SPF) is boiling. And possible collapse of the SPF on the roof of the buildings would lead to massive evacuation beyond Tokyo.

Japan is having the next election coming soon. All Green concerned people should stand for election and get into parliament and institute the right policy response.

The cold shutdown in a farce. The Japan government has to resort to this coverup at the request of IAEA and the US government. This again show the works of the BEAST, culling the death of humans. Anti-Christ has arrived and now doing HIS work. For those who follows my blog, you know who is the Anti-Christ.

The darkest hour shown in US on 25 December 2012 heralded this wave of rally. It says "survive the Holidays". Is the Holiday over ?

Santorum is now emerging as the Strong candidate in the Primaries. We are likely to see a Clash of Christ and Anti-Christ in the coming election.

The most notable event on Friday trading was the ram-through of Silver through 32. And you sense everybody getting so bullish on Gold and Silver. So the Goldbugs neber get slaughtered ? Next week would tell.
The rise of Silver, you can the amount of Shorts out there for PM as well.

Reuters report the Creditors representatives left Greece without any results, leaving subsequent talks through phone. Has they achieved it and leaving the nitty-gritty to phone conferences.

Silver telling the forthcoming of QE3 ?

20 Jan Last trading for the RABBIT year, so we begin JOURNEY 2.

yes, the Rabbit year is ending. And looking at how Rabbit behaves, it hops from nests to nests. As the Chinese saying 狡兔三窝。The cunning rabbit has three nests.
We see the market making a roller coaster ride like the rabbit jumping nests to nests. And it is so happy that its duty is ending. To it is jumping out of hiding to welcome the Spring.

Now comes the Black Dragon (壬辰）, (black is equivalent to Water in Chinese astrology). In fact it is going to herald lots of water, as the water dam (辰）is going to be breached. We can expect a lot of calamity relating to water in this new year.

First, we would have snow storm in China, alike the ones in 2008. When snow cripples most part of China.
Second, there would be tsunamis across Pacific Ocean, possibly submerging Taiwan, the South-east Asia. To some it is akin to what you see in the movie 2012.

When water is abundant, wood would float. fire would quell. The real estate and housing industry would be directionless, like a floating piece of timber. Fire, akin to Oil, Petrochemicals industry would be receding. And abundant water would drain Gold. Expects Gold not to do well. As Gold is suppressed, expect Hedge Funds like Soros to do well. Soros would make a major assault this year. Soros does not have much time to live (unless he takes my exlixir), so he is going to leave a legacy. And in a year of abundant water, the Republican Elephant is going to wade through the flood, while the Democrats Mule would be almost drowned. The Republicans would be doing better and better starting February, while Obama would be besieged.

As Dragon is rummaging through the water, expect another roller coaster year of larger magnitude. Higher peaks and lower troughs, i.e. expect SPX to breach 1400, and breaks 1000. But no confirmed Bull or Bear trend.

As the deity of wealth is in the WEST. Expect Western markets, i.e. US and Europe to perform better. Asian markets would be struggling, especially those in South-Eastern Asia, i.e. Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. Thailand would be hard hit.

So to ride the peaks and troughs, you are advised to follow my blog or subscribe to my newsletter. It would save you tens of thousands if not millions.

Ever since, China markets allow future and options to short, the markets have been on a downride. And pretty sure they are enjoying it, ready for the next ride down.

SPX to hit 1320 today, and Gold to kiss 1666 goodbye.

To borrow a cliche from Journey 2 - Mysterious Island, BELIEVE THE IMPOSSIBLE, DISCOVER THE INCREDIBLE, 

Did you not see this Water Dragon (eel) ? like the Lochness monster ?

Update Asia close
-------------------
A Chinese geomacer got this to say:
" Wealth
There will be some unavoidable financial loss to deal with this year, so be sure you have a back-up plan. Bear in mind that any loss will not be a bad thing – there is a good chance you’ll be able to recoup what you lose. "

Loss is not a bad thing. Let us all have losses. Would you ?
so make yourself a follower of my blog (see right handside of the Blog), and get rid of those daily nonsense.

Euro hit a high of 1.2986 and poof, it drops.
and Gold hit a high of 1670 and poof, today it managed a high of 1658 at London open.

And Hong Kong Stock Index passed 20,000, a first time in so many months.

So it is now SPX, INDU, NDX turns to welcome the year of the BLACK DRAGON.

The other baffling thing is that USD is weakening. Last high was 81.78.
TBE To be explained.

Update US Open

despite the warning from GE, the "meltup" continues. The fall of Euro is arrested on hopes that Greece creditors would reach agreement.

Gold now melting back up to 1655 after reaching 1645.

Hence there are definitely a lot of convinced buyers out there with every dip.

AUD did very well, reaching 1.0470.

Still looking for SPX to reach 1320, before I decide next move.

19 Jan SPX heading for 1320, Massacre of Goldbugs coming.

yes, SPX ever inching up in a elevated crane. closed at 1308. The final surge should come on Friday, option expiry.
I never believe 8 points from a major round number like 1300 constitute a top. IT has to move closer into 1330 to 1350 for a major top.

Meanwhile HSI going to touch 20,000, a target so elusive for most part of 2011. And when the Rabbit Year last trading day is coming on 20 Jan, it finally goes there. Now HSI at 19912.
Gold challenging 1666 again in Asia morning.
No hurry.

National Association of US Investment Companies reported 1,4b of equity inflows in January 2012. total 11b flowing to Bond and Equity. So Bond flow still quite substantial.

Estimated Flows to Long-Term Mutual Funds Millions of dollars


12/14/2011 12/21/2011 12/28/2011 1/4/2012 1/11/2012
Total Equity -5,917 -4,690 -5,085 -9,365 1,434
Domestic -4,229 -2,807 -4,111 -7,079 753
Foreign -1,689 -1,883 -974 -2,285 681
Hybrid 752 172 460 454 1,951
Total Bond 5,545 2,272 2,073 3,298 7,868
Taxable 4,684 1,090 1,079 2,120 6,124
Municipal 861 1,182 994 1,178 1,744
Total 380 -2,246 -2552 -5,613 11,253
Euro making a dash for 1.2800.

Nowadays a lot of retails are operating robot trading, sign up for a personal account, set the algo, and let the program takes over. E.g. trade at every MACD or Stochastics crosses. So they accumulate tiny profits. With trailing stops. In this trending SPX, most accounts are showing up handsome profits.

Watching Gold at 1666, Silver at 30.5.

My view is that China GDP would inch towards 8.1 in the next few quarters, when China is manoevring a soft-landing.

Latest in: Greek bondholders now refusing the haircut.

Now Iran Homuz block is neber heard of, Israel attack on Iran also fizzles out. Smoke Screen. It is going to be hell of a bull trap for those who buy on war drum-beat. Massacre of the Gold Bugs coming.

I always revert back to watching this video. See how it moves from a spectator watch to a stampede.



Update
--------
News has it that Iran is ready to talk again.
Iran is pressed when all its customers are now talking to Saudi Arabia to secure supplies.
Talk or no talk, when Iran contracts expire with customers, they are not going to renew. Hence in other words, the world oil supply has artificially cut by 30%. And OPEC, Russia, etc would be pushing up oil prices in response. So we are going to enter into a summer of high oil prices oscillating between 100 to 120.

World governments would be deliberately slowing down their engines to buffer any high energy prices.
Am waiting for my Hong Kong stock to hit target for my Red Packet.